My first day at the Gabba was 23 years ago, half a lifetime having passed since I slept on my brother\u2019s sofa across the river and followed the Ashes tour as a backpacker. The coin went up, Nasser Hussain decided to have a bowl, and Steve Waugh\u2019s Australians cashed in on generosity.<\/p>\n
Having not returned until 2017\u201118, and then covered the Covid tour four years later, the Sydney finale in 2003 remains the only time I have seen England win a Test on Australian soil. Even then I\u00a0missed the last day: flat broke and forced to head back to Queensland to find work, I eventually found myself on a farm upstate, shovelling melons like a scrum-half for eight hot hours\u00a0a day while dodging venomous snakes underfoot.<\/p>\n
It was three dollars to the pound back then, but the main difference before the tour started was expectation. There was precious little, other than of a good time ahead, a chance to watch that great Australia team first hand, and the hope that one or two Englishmen might stand up in the heat. Michael Vaughan\u2019s glowing bat answered that call, at least, peeling off 633 princely runs in an otherwise one\u2011sided 4\u20131 defeat.<\/p>\n
Australians could be forgiven for wondering why expectations were higher this time around given\u00a0England\u2019s record since. The 3\u20131 win under Andrew Strauss in 2010-11 remains the one island of bliss in an ocean of otherwise thwarted trips, with two whitewashes and a couple of 4\u20130 scorelines underlining how hard it can be to swim against the tide.<\/p>\n
Optimism came chiefly from England\u2019s fast-bowling stocks and a\u00a0positive outlook, plus an Australia\u00a0side deemed to be approaching its end. But a two\u2011day bunfight in Perth \u2013 one that hinged ultimately on an hour of ruinous batting \u2013 paused all that talk, triggering a wave of derision towards England and sending them into must\u2011win territory at the\u00a0Gabba this week.<\/p>\n
Mathematically this is not true, of course, but those who cover Ashes tours are hard-wired with one particular statistic above all: no team have overcome a 2\u20130 deficit to win a series bar Australia in 1936-37. And they had a certain Don\u00a0Bradman leading the fightback with scores of 270, 212 and 169 across the final three Tests.<\/p>\n
England\u2019s Will Jacks during a training session at the Gabba in Brisbane. Photograph: Jason O\u2019Brien\/EPA<\/p>\n
Ben Stokes tends to reject the relevance of history which, at a ground such as the Gabba \u2013 an unconquerable citadel for England for nearly 40 years \u2013 is probably for the best. Although tactical tidbits from previous \u201cGabbatoir\u201d ordeals go slightly out of the window anyway, with the second Test that starts on Thursday a first Ashes day\u2011nighter on Vulture Street.<\/p>\n
A sport already built on myriad variables gets a whole heap more when the pink Kookaburra ball comes out to play. It can zip around in the day \u2013 India were rolled for 36<\/a> in bright Adelaide sunshine five years ago \u2013 and it can also go soft, forcing fielding sides to sit in. But even when tired, it can still suddenly burst into life before bedtime \u2013 the so-called \u201cwitching hour\u201d that readers with young children will doubtless recognise.<\/p>\n All this led to the floodlit format recently being dubbed \u201ca\u00a0lottery\u201d by Stuart Broad but Australia\u2019s record of played 14, won 13 suggests\u00a0otherwise. Notwithstanding Mitchell Starc\u2019s pink-ball pre\u2011eminence and greater\u00a0exposure for their batters, it still comes down to deft in\u2011game management, an appreciation of conditions, and superior split\u2011second decision\u00a0making.<\/p>\n Given events on the second and, ahem, final day in Perth, these challenges will likely be of greater concern for England\u2019s supporters than the Gabba factor itself. On Tuesday, before training, Stokes doubled down on a belief that his players have the wherewithal to get it right in the moment.<\/p>\n This may induce eyes being rolled but the one day-night Test Stokes has overseen is the 267\u2011run victory against New Zealand<\/a> in Mount Maunganui in 2023. There was a smart declaration on day one and, for all the talk of one\u2011dimensional batting, an even smarter slowdown on day three that allowed Broad to wreak havoc with a new ball under lights.<\/p>\n skip past newsletter promotion<\/a><\/p>\n Subscribe to our cricket newsletter for our writers’ thoughts on the biggest stories and a review of the week\u2019s action<\/p>\n Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. If you do not have an account, we will create a guest account for you on theguardian.com<\/a> to send you this newsletter. You can complete full registration at any time. For more information about how we use your data see our Privacy Policy<\/a>. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google Privacy Policy<\/a> and Terms of Service<\/a> apply.<\/p>\n after newsletter promotion<\/p>\n Quick GuideTeams for second TestShow<\/p>\n England (confirmed): Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Ollie Pope, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes (c), Jamie Smith (wk), Will Jacks, Gus Atkinson, Brydon Carse, Jofra Archer <\/p>\n Australia (possible): Travis Head, Jake Weatherald, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith (c), Josh Inglis, Cameron Green, Alex Carey (wk), Mitchell Starc, Scott Boland, Brendon Doggett, Nathan Lyon <\/p>\n Thank you for your feedback.<\/p>\n The seamers are likely to dominate here \u2013 Jofra Archer has looked a nightmare to face under lights \u2013 but Stokes has one fewer in his quiver than last week, bringing Will Jacks in for the injured Mark\u00a0Wood<\/a>. With the humidity high, passages of attrition possible, and the quick men likely to need breathers, the option of a spinner does seem reasonable enough.<\/p>\n The question in the short\u00a0term is whether Jacks, a serviceable part\u2011timer who also bolsters the batting, can give Stokes the desired control. The broader one is what this all means for Shoaib Bashir, who after two years of investment with this very tour in mind has been leapfrogged by a wildcard pick.<\/p>\n