{"id":309025,"date":"2025-12-10T14:47:16","date_gmt":"2025-12-10T14:47:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/309025\/"},"modified":"2025-12-10T14:47:16","modified_gmt":"2025-12-10T14:47:16","slug":"the-ashes-2025-26-andy-zaltzman-on-how-statistical-history-offers-england-little-hope-of-coming-back-to-win-series","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/309025\/","title":{"rendered":"The Ashes 2025-26: Andy Zaltzman on how statistical history offers England little hope of coming back to win series"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph e1jhz7w10\">One of the many disappointments was that, where Australia&#8217;s lower order contributed vital runs and equally vital hours, England&#8217;s again evaporated rapidly.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph e1jhz7w10\">The Mitchell Starc-Scott Boland ninth-wicket partnership, which shifted the tone of the series and consolidated Australia&#8217;s first-innings advantage into domination, lasted 27.2 overs<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph e1jhz7w10\">England&#8217;s eighth, ninth and 10th-wicket partnerships, in four innings across the two Tests combined, have lasted 27.5 overs, equating to a wicket lost every 14 balls.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph e1jhz7w10\">To illustrate the gulf between on-paper potential and on-pitch actuality, Gus Atkinson (with a century and four other scores over 35 in his 15-Test career) and Brydon Carse (three 35-plus scores in the recent India series, County Championship average over 30, two first-class hundreds) have scored 78-8 off 91 balls in Perth and Brisbane.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph e1jhz7w10\">Brendan Doggett (Test novice, with a domestic first-class average of 8.5) and Boland (domestic average 12.1, previous Test high score of 20) have scored 41-2 off 125 balls. Australia have scored at a Bazballistic rate, but also played with a flexibility and awareness England have failed to apply for more than fleeting passages.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph e1jhz7w10\">On the plus side, England&#8217;s spin attack is leading Australia&#8217;s in wickets taken after the first two Tests.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph e1jhz7w10\">In the last 50 years of Ashes cricket in Australia, every time England&#8217;s spinners have taken more wickets than Australia&#8217;s in the first two Tests, they have gone on to win the series &#8211; in 2010-11, 1986-87 and 1978-79.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph e1jhz7w10\">In Brisbane, when Will Jacks took the first wicket by a spinner in an Ashes Test in the southern hemisphere since Steve Smith dismissed Jack Leach in the fourth Test four years ago, England roared into a 1-0 lead in the spinners&#8217; wickets tally for the series.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph e1jhz7w10\">Admittedly, England were 2-0 up after two Tests in 1978-79, and 1-0 ahead in the other two series, but where there is a statistical straw, let us clutch it, and clutch it hard, before it floats off into the wind.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph e1jhz7w10\">For those wishing to build an entire house of statistical straws, you could also point to the fact that the last time England were bowled out in under 80 overs in the first four innings of an Ashes was in 2005, another triumphant series.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph e1jhz7w10\">And, after Stokes and Jacks&#8217; 96-run stand, you could note that every time England have had a seventh-wicket stand of more than 90 in Australia since the Second World War, they have won the Ashes (Ian Bell and Matt Prior putting on 107 in 2010-11, Geoff Miller and Bob Taylor combining for 135 in 1978-79).<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph e1jhz7w10\">Blow that one down, Mr Wolf.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"One of the many disappointments was that, where Australia&#8217;s lower order contributed vital runs and equally vital hours,&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":309026,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[1721,101,56,54,55],"class_list":{"0":"post-309025","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-cricket","8":"tag-cricket","9":"tag-sports","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom","12":"tag-unitedkingdom"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/309025","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=309025"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/309025\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/309026"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=309025"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=309025"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=309025"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}