An enormous carpet of pastry snakes its way around the factory. Four huge metal urns of meat filling are waiting to be added. Workers in hairnets and overalls buzz about, checking a production line that holds 4.5 tonnes of pastry at any one time.<\/p>\n
This is food production on an industrial scale, designed to satisfy the UK\u2019s seemingly insatiable appetite for sausage rolls, vegan bites and other baked treats.<\/p>\n
Every sausage roll or steak bake bought at any of Greggs\u2019s 2,675 UK outlets will have been produced and frozen at this plant in Newcastle<\/a> upon Tyne, the company\u2019s home city, before being baked in store and served possibly hundreds of miles away.<\/p>\n The scale may seem enough to satisfy demand \u2013 with bags of flour weighing 16.5kg and brick-sized blocks of fat and margarine moved around by forklift truck \u2013 yet the bakery chain is continuing to expand production.<\/p>\n The Newcastle site, which churns out the equivalent of 1m sausage rolls every day, gained a fourth production line in 2024. Now, Greggs<\/a> is preparing to launch an automated production site in Derby, followed in 2027 by another in Kettering, Northamptonshire. Its estimated capital expenditure in 2025 was \u00a3300m.<\/p>\n Behind the scenes at the Northumberland Street branch of Greggs in Newcastle. Photograph: Mark Pinder\/The Guardian<\/p>\n The new factories are intended to help the company reach its target of 3,500 stores across the UK \u2013 800 more than it operates currently.<\/p>\n After years of rapid expansion, Greggs\u2019 determination to keep opening new branches, even as like-for-like sales have fallen, has raised eyebrows among analysts and investors.<\/p>\n Combined with a slide in the company\u2019s share price over the last year, it has led some to ask: has the UK reached the limit of its appetite for Greggs?<\/p>\n Roisin Currie, Greggs\u2019 chief executive, insisted otherwise in July<\/a>. \u201cI absolutely don\u2019t believe we have reached peak Greggs,\u201d she said, adding the company had previously bounced back from \u201cdownturns\u201d.<\/p>\n Fiona Wilson and Keith Stewart visit Greggs in Newcastle two to three times a week. Photograph: Joanna Partridge\/The Guardian<\/p>\n Others have their doubts, however. Analysts at the broker Panmure Liberum said the chain now \u201csits at a crossroads\u201d.<\/p>\n Greggs is still held in particular esteem by people in its home city. On a chilly December morning, when the Guardian visited the branch in Newcastle railway station, customers were queueing out of the door. The same was true at the store outside the station.<\/p>\n Waiting for a breakfast sandwich and a coffee were Fiona Wilson and Keith Stewart.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s very good quality coffee at a reasonable price,\u201d said Stewart. Flashing her loyalty app and explaining she usually visits two or three times a week, Wilson added: \u201cI love the products and like that it\u2019s a local brand.\u201d<\/p>\n What would go on to become Britain\u2019s largest bakery chain started with one man and a dream. In 1939, John Gregg began delivering fresh eggs and yeast to Newcastle families by bike. Just over a decade later, he opened his first shop selling bread and baked goods in the city\u2019s Gosforth district, where the high street is still home to a branch of Greggs.<\/p>\n Gregg could hardly have predicted the company bearing his name would balloon over subsequent decades, appearing from Elgin in Scotland to Truro in Cornwall, employing 33,000 people.<\/p>\n The chain expanded through the 70s and 80s under the control of Gregg\u2019s sons as it bought up regional bakery chains. Its most recent transformation came in the 2010s, when the then CEO Roger Whiteside, Currie\u2019s predecessor,<\/a> decided to ditch traditional products such as loaves<\/a> to focus on the food-to-go market.<\/p>\n An archive photo of Greggs in Gosforth, Newcastle, displayed in the chain\u2019s Christmas pop-up venue in Fenwick\u2019s department store. Photograph: Mark Pinder\/The Guardian<\/p>\n The pivot was successful and the chain gained a reputation for cheap and reliable breakfasts and lunches as its logo of four orange squares on a blue background popped up on ever-more high streets.<\/p>\n It reached the milestone of \u00a31bn in annual sales<\/a> in 2018 and launched a vegan sausage roll<\/a> the following year, becoming something of a phenomenon as it won plaudits for its lighthearted social media marketing<\/a>.<\/p>\n In the early 2020s, the pandemic notwithstanding, loaf-free Greggs was on a roll. Currie followed in Whiteside\u2019s footsteps, offering menu items such as pizza and mac and cheese.<\/p>\n The company was profiled in a behind-the-scenes TV documentary<\/a> and collaborated with other brands, including the budget clothing chain Primark, which released a sell-out Greggs \u201cfestival wear\u201d range<\/a>.<\/p>\n Sales kept rising like puff pastry in a hot oven, and by 2024 Greggs had doubled annual turnover to \u00a32bn and opened its 2,600th branch. At the same time, shares in the FTSE 250 company, which first listed in 1984, were on a mostly upwards trajectory.<\/p>\n It was in 2025 that Greggs seemed to falter.<\/p>\n Early on, bosses blamed wintry weather for the company\u2019s worst sales growth since the pandemic<\/a>. A summer of warm temperatures and sunshine diminished customers\u2019 appetite for pastry, leaving analysts and investors questioning the brand\u2019s direction as it continued to target 120 net store openings in 2025.<\/p>\n Greggs\u2019 share price has fallen by about 40% over the past year, and it ended 2025 as the most-shorted stock in the UK as people placed bets that its value would fall further still.<\/p>\n An activist investor \u2013 the Singapore-based hedge fund Lauro Asset Management \u2013 recently criticised the company\u2019s management, urging it to cut costs to avoid becoming a takeover target.<\/p>\n Others wonder whether the chain can sustain growth through new branch openings, which could simply move existing customers around if they prove to be too close to existing sites.<\/p>\n Peter Backman, a restaurant consultant, drew a comparison to the rival chain Subway, which he said had \u201caround 2,000\u201d branches, \u201cso Greggs are probably near the limit\u201d.<\/p>\n He added: \u201cIt will be a few years until they reach the maximum number of stores. However, there are other issues, and the number of people who visit their stores isn\u2019t necessarily going to go up.\u201d<\/p>\n Greggs on Gosforth high street in Newcastle today. Photograph: Mark Pinder\/The Guardian<\/p>\n Given its very British proposition, expansion overseas seems unlikely. A previous five-year attempt to woo Belgian consumers failed and the chain closed its \u201cEngelse Bakker\u201d (English baker) stores<\/a> in 2008.<\/p>\n Consumers remain sensitive to price increases, too, even as inflation has cooled. The sausage roll that cost 66p in 2012 has now doubled to \u00a31.30<\/a> in Newcastle city centre, though prices can vary depending on location.<\/p>\n Greggs has raised prices \u201cahead of the market\u201d, according to analysts at the broker Jefferies. It found the chain\u2019s sandwiches cost 6% more in October 2025 than a year earlier, while key hot items were 4.5% pricier \u2013 though it concluded \u201cpricing is still sharp\u201d.<\/p>\n Naomi Watson at the pop-up Golden Flake Tavern in Newcastle\u2019s Fenwick department store. Photograph: Mark Pinder\/The Guardian<\/p>\n Others have queried whether wider uptake of weight-loss jabs<\/a> could further knock sales of calorific pastries, though the company has been introducing healthier options, including fruit pots and salads.<\/p>\n