Following the seizure by the US of Venezuelan President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, many within Iran’s leadership are increasingly concerned that the United States may be serious about its threats, particularly after a 12-day war with Israel last June, during which the US bombed Iran’s nuclear sites, and the weakening of Iranian-backed militant groups across the region. <\/p>\n
It is possible these developments could embolden Washington to strike Iran without fear of significant retaliation.<\/p>\n
President Donald Trump has loomed large over the regime’s calculations. Since almost the start of the protests, Trump has issued repeated warnings to Tehran, stating that the US would respond forcefully if peaceful protesters were killed.<\/p>\n
In a recent US radio interview, Trump said Iran would “get hit very hard” if it repeated the mass killings seen during previous uprisings. He downplayed responsibility for deaths so far by attributing some to “stampedes”, but stressed that Iranian authorities had been “told very strongly” where the red lines lay.<\/p>\n
It is not clear whether these warnings may be behind the regime’s response. In Tehran, where symbolically the costs are greatest, security forces appear to be exercising restraint to avoid images of mass bloodshed. Gunshots were reportedly heard late Thursday night in Tehran, but due to the near blackout of the internet it is difficult to verify exactly what is happening in the city.<\/p>\n
Outside the capital, however, repression has been swift and lethal.<\/p>\n
During the mass protests in Iran in 2022 following the death of the Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini in police custody in Tehran, more than 500 people were killed, human rights groups say. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), along with its affiliated militias and anti-riot police, played a pivotal role in violently suppressing those protests.<\/p>\n
Historically, the Islamic Republic has relied on a layered security apparatus to suppress mass protests. Alongside riot police, the regime deploys the Basij militia – a volunteer paramilitary force under IRGC control – often operating in plain clothes. <\/p>\n
In more intense situations, command shifts from police to IRGC commanders, signalling that unrest is being treated as a national security threat rather than a civil disturbance. This escalation typically precedes harsher crackdowns, including mass arrests and lethal force.<\/p>\n
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has called for tolerance of what he described as “legitimate protests,” but his authority is limited. Ultimate control over security policy rests with the supreme leader, not the presidency. <\/p>\n
The current approach suggests the regime is buying time, attempting to exhaust protesters, limit casualties in visible areas, and avoid crossing thresholds that could provoke direct foreign retaliation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Following the seizure by the US of Venezuelan President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, many within Iran’s leadership are increasingly concerned…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":362435,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[84,1294,56,54,55],"class_list":{"0":"post-362434","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom","12":"tag-unitedkingdom"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/362434","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=362434"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/362434\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/362435"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=362434"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=362434"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=362434"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}