{"id":369328,"date":"2026-01-14T12:48:10","date_gmt":"2026-01-14T12:48:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/369328\/"},"modified":"2026-01-14T12:48:10","modified_gmt":"2026-01-14T12:48:10","slug":"nimble-or-nervous-90s-cricket-maths-show-best-approach-to-scoring-a-century-cricket","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/369328\/","title":{"rendered":"Nimble or nervous 90s? Cricket maths show best approach to scoring a century | Cricket"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">If you\u2019ve ever been lucky enough to score a century you\u2019ll know how seismic a moment it is when you finally get over the line. Some play the game for a lifetime and never make one, the three-figured kingdom for ever out of reach, a promised land they are destined never to enter. Yet cricket lures you back like a devilish lover. You just can\u2019t quit it. Next time might be your time. It could be you. Why not?<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">In cricket the century is the hallmark of individual success for a batter, the team sport unique in the way that it lauds personal milestones. The Test Match Special statistician Andy Zaltzman says that a century \u201ccarves an immutable notch in a player\u2019s history and, at the highest level, an eternal legacy in the annals of the game\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The difference between a two- and three-figure score might be only one run but in cricket they may as well be different realms. Galaxies divided by a single. Ask the handful of players who have been out for 99 in Test cricket, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/sport\/2021\/jun\/08\/perfect-analogy-for-cricket-tudor-atherton-jonassen-on-test-99s\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">they\u2019ll tell you.<\/a> It\u2019s one run and yet it is everything.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Getting close to these \u201cslivers of immortality\u201d has prompted plenty of players, even the greats, to wilt while on the cusp. \u201cI was a little bit nervous,\u201d Jacob Bethell admitted after scoring his sunburst of a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/sport\/2026\/jan\/07\/jacob-bethell-plays-starring-role-in-ashes-wars-episode-5-a-new-hope\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">maiden first class and Test century<\/a> in Sydney last week.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Bethell spent eight balls on 99, his parents Graham and Giselle and his sister Laura having an entire cattery\u2019s worth of kittens in the Brewongle Stand. Their boy appeared at least to be ice cold, shutting up shop to the returning threat of Mitchell Starc and the unrelenting Scott Boland before seizing on the opportunity to skip down and loft Beau Webster\u2019s off-spin over midwicket to get over the line and carve his first notch.<\/p>\n<p>England\u2019s Jacob Bethell hits out during his sunburst of a century at Sydney. Photograph: David Gray\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cI was nowhere near as nervous as I was in New Zealand when I forgot to watch the ball,\u201d Bethell added, recalling his previous <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/sport\/2024\/dec\/07\/new-zealand-england-second-test-day-two-report-gus-atkinson-hat-trick-cricket\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">highest Test score of 96<\/a> in the second Test against the Kiwis in Wellington last winter. On that occasion Bethell tried to get over the line with a rasping cover drive off Tim Southee only to edge behind and be caught agonisingly short. \u201cIt would have been flair if I\u2019d smacked him through the covers to bring it up,\u201d Bethell apparently said to Ben Stokes in the dressing room afterwards.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Bethell\u2019s response says much about his confidence in his own talent. \u201cIt was always coming,\u201d he noted matter of factly in the press conference after that first century.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">His bustling approach to the 90s in Wellington is actually a common one and is borne out by a <a href=\"https:\/\/journals.plos.org\/plosone\/article?id=10.1371\/journal.pone.0287700#sec008\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">published academic paper on the phenomena of the nervous 90s<\/a> by a group of Australian academics in 2023.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cYou could actually call it the nimble 90s,\u201d says Dr Leo Roberts, one of the authors of the paper and a research fellow at the University of Melbourne. \u201cOur findings showed that actually batters accelerated their scoring as they approached a hundred and were more likely to hit a boundary when they were close to it too.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The nervous energy is more likely to mean a batter at Test level rattles towards a ton than gets out it seems. Zaltzman\u2019s findings back this up. He sends the Spin a series of brain-melting spreadsheets that, when deciphered, show that in the history of men\u2019s Test cricket, 38.4% of all batters\u2019 innings result in them getting out between 0 and 9 and that 17.3% of innings that reach 90 end with the player dismissed before reaching a century.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">In Test matches since 2000 those figures are 37.8 % and 16.6%. The numbers reveal that the 90s are actually the 10-run bracket in which a Test batter is least likely to get out, not just between 0 and 100 but also from 0-140.<\/p>\n<p>Harry Brook of England despairs after being caught on the boundary for 99 against India at Headingley last June. Photograph: Visionhaus\/Getty Images<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">This isn\u2019t to say players don\u2019t get nervous as they approach the milestone. Many, including most recently Bethell, will admit to feeling the butterflies as they approach cricket\u2019s immutable landmark. Test history shows us players that are rendered shotless and stupefied on the ascent to three figures despite the comfort blanket the overall statistics provide. If only they knew. Zaltzman himself laughs in the face of such numerical pressure.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cIn my first hundred, I went from 84 to 100 with four successive cuts for four. It was a local derby, Penshurst v Chiddingstone, so massive pressure.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">All of which is to say that if you do ever find yourself, inexplicably or otherwise, out in the middle and approaching a hundred, remember, the 90s are not the minefield you might think they are. It might even pay to put your foot down and do it in style, plenty of players at the highest level have taken this approach and succeeded. Be flair, but most importantly: get there.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"If you\u2019ve ever been lucky enough to score a century you\u2019ll know how seismic a moment it is&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":369329,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[1721,101,56,54,55],"class_list":{"0":"post-369328","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-cricket","8":"tag-cricket","9":"tag-sports","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom","12":"tag-unitedkingdom"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/369328","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=369328"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/369328\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/369329"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=369328"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=369328"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=369328"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}