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\t\tGary Stevenson predicted soaring house prices\t<\/p>\n\t\t\tThursday 15 January 2026 8:25 am
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\t\t\tThursday 15 January 2026 8:26 am\n\t<\/p>\n
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\t\tGary Stevenson predicted soaring house prices\t<\/p>\n
The new year is a great time to check whether past predictions have stood the test of time. So I revisited the forecasts of one of London\u2019s better-known economic sooth-sayers, Gary Stevenson, known to you and me as Gary\u2019s Economics thanks to his viral Youtube channel.<\/p>\n
Two years ago, almost to the day, Gary released a video<\/a> laying out his prognostications for the UK\u2019s housing market.<\/p>\n \u201cAs interest rates come down\u2026rich people will stop being content to sit on this enormous pile of cash, they\u2019ll go back to buying assets [and] drive up house prices,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cSo I think we\u2019re moving into the next stage of this now which is another really really aggressive asset price inflation including house prices.\u201d<\/p>\n He went on to predict the collapse of the middle class, because average-earning Brits would no longer be able to afford to buy a home. Was he right?<\/p>\n According to the Halifax House Price Index, average UK house prices in December were up just 0.3 per cent<\/a> compared to a year earlier. In other words, they basically haven\u2019t grown at all \u2013 and they have fallen compared to headline inflation.<\/p>\n Indeed, compared to wage growth, homes have become more affordable.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\tRead more<\/p>\n \t\t\tHousing market ended 2025 on \u2018softer note\u2019 after \u2018resilient\u2019 year<\/a><\/p>\n Amanda Bryden, head of mortgages at Halifax, says: \u201cThe house price to income ratio was at its lowest in over a decade in December, striking a positive note for those looking to purchase their first home.\u201d<\/p>\n Oh dear. But that\u2019s just a nationwide average \u2013 how about in London, where Britain\u2019s rich buy their million-pound homes?<\/p>\n In the capital, it\u2019s a very different picture: house prices have fallen significantly. Property prices in London fell by 1.3 per cent over the course of 2025, Halifax says.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Indeed, in the neighbourhoods where the richest live, the drop is the most pronounced. In Kensington, average house prices are down about 10 per cent<\/a> since the start of 2024, when Gary made his prediction. In pretty much every London borough, homes have become more affordable,<\/a> as a multiple of average wages, compared to peak unaffordability in 2021.<\/p>\n These measures are not perfect, because they don\u2019t factor in things like changes to the cost of mortgages over time. But even then, you\u2019d be hard-pressed to argue that the middle classes are being pushed out of the property market at pace.<\/p>\n So by this yardstick at least, Gary is not quite the clairvoyant his fans would believe. And what of his other predictions? I suggest you watch his Youtube video<\/a> from a year ago, entitled: \u201cWill the rich leave the UK?\u201d. You\u2019re in for a treat.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\tRead more<\/p>\n