Economic experts have backed the International Monetary Fund\u2019s cautionary stance on Nigeria\u2019s reform agenda, urging the Federal Government to sustain ongoing economic reforms and avoid policy reversals, particularly as political pressures build ahead of the election cycle.\n<\/p>\n
They warned that compromising reforms could undermine recent gains in inflation moderation, weaken investor confidence, and further strain the economy, which remains vulnerable due to limited fiscal buffers.\n<\/p>\n
The IMF\u2019s Country Representative for Nigeria, Dr Christian Ebeke, during a panel discussion at the 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook event of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group in Lagos, warned Nigeria against reversing recent economic reforms, noting that such a move would erode hard-won macroeconomic gains.\n<\/p>\n
Ebeke noted that although progress had been recorded, Nigeria\u2019s reform agenda was far from complete, pointing out that inflation remained in double digits, thereby limiting policy flexibility.<\/p>\n
\u201cGovernment intervention in controlling prices and volumes is no longer sustainable for Nigeria. The objective going forward must be to stay the course on both fiscal and monetary policy,\u201d he said.\n<\/p>\n
He identified complacency as one of the most immediate risks facing the economy, particularly at the subnational level, where states now enjoy improved fiscal space following recent reforms.\n<\/p>\n
According to him, the temptation for pro-cyclical spending by state governments, especially in the build-up to elections, could reverse gains recorded by the Federal Government and key economic managers.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe risk of believing that the job is already done is more evident at the subnational level. Fiscal space has increased significantly for states, and in a pre-election year, pro-cyclical fiscal policy becomes a very acute risk,\u201d Ebeke said.\n<\/p>\n
He warned that such spending patterns could easily undo the achievements of the Minister of Finance, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, and other members of the economic team.\n<\/p>\n
Ebeke also cautioned against what he described as \u201chome-grown volatility\u201d, arising from policy missteps that inflict unnecessary pressure on the economy. \u201cA return to exchange rate controls, for example, would be a major mistake at this point. It would deplete reserves, distort market signals, and negatively affect market confidence,\u201d he said.\n<\/p>\n
He added that Nigeria was currently facing difficult policy trade-offs and must avoid decisions that could undermine macroeconomic stability.\n<\/p>\n
The calls were echoed by the Chairman of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group, Niyi Yusuf, who warned that the country must not skip the process of the reforms; otherwise, it may end up worse off.\n<\/p>\n
He said, \u201cThe picture that emerges suggests that the economy has moved away from acute macroeconomic dislocation toward a more predictable environment. The key question before us is no longer whether reform is necessary, but how we consolidate the gains already achieved and convert them into durable, inclusive growth. <\/p>\n
\u201cHowever, stabilisation alone does not equate to prosperity. Growth remained modest and uneven. It was driven by a narrow set of sectors, with weak transmission to employment and household incomes. Real purchasing power remained under pressure, and welfare outcomes continued to lag behind macro indicators. These realities underscore a critical point \u2014 stability is a necessary condition for growth, but it is not sufficient.<\/p>\n
\u201cConsolidation is the medium-term transition stage where achieved stability must be fortified and translated into productivity gains across the economy. It is the structural bridge between reform and results. In this phase, the reduction in macroeconomic disruption must be deliberately leveraged to remove bottlenecks that constrain output, investment, and competitiveness.\n<\/p>\n
\u201cFor Nigeria, consolidation requires a shift in emphasis. Policy must move from inconsistency across sectors to one of coherence. From firefighting to system-building. From short-term fixes to institutional strengthening.\u201d\n<\/p>\n
Investment banker and economist, Tilewa Adebajo, in a chat with The PUNCH on Friday, noted that the concerns of the IMF were quite valid.\n<\/p>\n
He said, \u201cBasically, the challenge we\u2019re facing now is that after two very difficult years of reforms to reposition the economy for growth, reform reversal is one of the things that we should be very careful about because of politics. Inflation is coming down, and the government needs to unveil its growth strategies, which are really important.\n<\/p>\n
\u201cThat\u2019s the only way forward. We need to start growing the economy on a sustainable basis. We need to start growing this economy at 8 to 10 per cent, drop inflation to about 11 or 12 per cent to restore purchasing power. That is the only way forward. If we don\u2019t do that, then we\u2019re going to be in trouble, and this has to be private sector-driven because the government cannot fund its capital budget. It\u2019s struggling to do so and, at the end of the day, these are the challenges that we need to overcome.\n<\/p>\n
\u201cIf we compromise on politics, for us to get back on that path of sustainability, it\u2019s just going to become more and more difficult. And don\u2019t forget that we don\u2019t have any external buffers. Oil prices dropping significantly are going to impact us.\u201d\n<\/p>\n
Speaking further about the role of the private sector in the current state of reforms, Adebajo said it was all about government policy.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe have a lot of companies here; companies have come into the telecom sector and the banking sector. So the government needs to put up the right policies in the various sectors and create the right incentives for people to invest in those sectors.\n<\/p>\n
\u201cIf you put up the right policies and the right incentives, people will come and invest. And, like I\u2019ve told you, the government cannot fund its capital budgets. If the government has not been able to fund its capital budget last year and the year before, and it\u2019s not likely it will fund it this year, you need to start bringing alternative levels of capital. Because if you don\u2019t make investments, you can\u2019t grow the economy.\u201d\n<\/p>\n
A former president of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, Okechukwu Unegbu, while dismissing the advice of the IMF, said that the drivers of the reforms were not blind to the benefits achieved and thus would not allow pre-election-year peculiarities derail them.\n<\/p>\n
\u201cMy thoughts have always been the same. They should advise themselves and not us. I have very high confidence in the person of the Central Bank governor, Yemi Cardoso. He is someone that I know has all it takes, and he listens to people and agrees to carry out reforms. The reforms he has initiated, he is not going to back down.\n<\/p>\n
\u201cWale (Finance Minister) is also a reformist. I don\u2019t think that because it is an election year, we will close our eyes to the good things that are happening to us. Even though there was no discussion about the removal of the fuel subsidy or the flotation of the currency, after these were done, these two people, Cardoso and Edun, have been up to the task. We should rather encourage them to continue their jobs. I don\u2019t think they are people who are in government to be president or governor.\u201d\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Economic experts have backed the International Monetary Fund\u2019s cautionary stance on Nigeria\u2019s reform agenda, urging the Federal Government…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":377709,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[84,143610,9124,1294,86660,19871,1431,82166,9131,141654,143611,143612,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-377708","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-christian-ebeke","tag-economic-reforms","tag-economy","tag-fiscal-policy","tag-imf","tag-inflation","tag-investor-confidence","tag-monetary-policy","tag-nigeria-economy","tag-nigerian-economic-summit-group","tag-policy-reversal","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/377708","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=377708"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/377708\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/377709"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=377708"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=377708"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=377708"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}