{"id":38171,"date":"2025-08-01T13:11:11","date_gmt":"2025-08-01T13:11:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/38171\/"},"modified":"2025-08-01T13:11:11","modified_gmt":"2025-08-01T13:11:11","slug":"india-us-may-negotiate-tariff-relief-rbi-could-cut-rates-if-growth-slows-jpmorgans-aziz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/38171\/","title":{"rendered":"India-US may negotiate tariff relief; RBI could cut rates if growth slows: JPMorgan’s Aziz"},"content":{"rendered":"

Jahangir Aziz, Head of Emerging Market Economics Research at JPMorgan believes India and the US will explore ways to lower current tariff levels.<\/p>\n

\u201c25% is pretty high,\u201d Aziz said, referring to current US tariff rates<\/a>. \u201cLet\u2019s not forget, there\u2019s a penalty on top of that.\u201d<\/p>\n

He expects India’s Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to consider rate cuts again if economic conditions soften.<\/p>\n

Also Read | Why India’s top fund managers aren\u2019t losing sleep over US tariffs<\/a><\/p>\n

Aziz warned that tariffs are contributing to inflation pressures in the US. Core inflation could rise to over 6% annualised by August or September. In June, goods inflation in the US excluding autos ran at an annualised pace of 6.8%.<\/p>\n

He also highlighted the growing burden of tariffs on consumers and businesses. The observed tariff rate – actual duties collected divided by total imports – reached 9.5\u201310% in June, up from 2% in December. \u201cThat has to either get absorbed in lower profit or higher prices. So there is pain already there in the system,\u201d Aziz said.<\/p>\n

Based on current monthly trends, Aziz estimated that the US could collect around $350 billion in tariffs annually, effectively acting as a consumption tax.<\/p>\n

Also Read | Will US tariffs hurt Tata Steel? CEO TV Narendran breaks it down<\/a><\/p>\n

On India\u2019s monetary policy, Aziz noted that while the RBI delivered a 100-basis-point rate cut last year, there is no further easing in the baseline scenario. \u201cWe don\u2019t have a rate cut anymore. We have things on hold,\u201d he said. But he added, \u201cIf growth slows, and if you don\u2019t get a spike in core inflation, the space gets opened up.\u201d<\/p>\n

Aziz believes the RBI may act in response to global cues, especially from the US Federal Reserve. \u201cIf you get a rate cut signal from the Fed… that would be a good point at which the RBI can hang its act on that,\u201d he said, suggesting a possible return to rate cuts or more liquidity support if conditions warrant it.<\/p>\n

For the full interview, watch the accompanying video<\/p>\n

Catch all the latest updates from the stock market here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Jahangir Aziz, Head of Emerging Market Economics Research at JPMorgan believes India and the US will explore ways…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":38172,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[84,1294,22212,22210,22213,22214,56,54,55,11046,22211],"class_list":["post-38171","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-india-us-tariffs","tag-jahangir-aziz","tag-rbi","tag-reserve-bank-of-india","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom","tag-us-president-donald-trump","tag-us-trade-tariffs"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38171","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38171"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38171\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38172"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38171"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38171"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38171"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}