{"id":382509,"date":"2026-01-21T16:33:12","date_gmt":"2026-01-21T16:33:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/382509\/"},"modified":"2026-01-21T16:33:12","modified_gmt":"2026-01-21T16:33:12","slug":"a-cheap-safe-haven-in-times-of-trouble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/382509\/","title":{"rendered":"a cheap safe haven in times of trouble"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"eyeQ market volatility image\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chaos.jpg\"  class=\"chakra-image css-18yjja7\"  data-id=\"\"\/><\/p>\n<p>\u201cOur signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset&#8217;s value, market conditions, and historical performance.\u201d\u00a0eyeQ<\/p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway<\/p>\n<p>Macro Relevance:\u00a074%<br \/>Model Value:\u00a0$500.99<br \/>Fair Value Gap:\u00a0-3.21% discount to model value<\/p>\n<p class=\"text-small\">Data correct as at 21 January 2026. Please click\u00a0<a title=\"glossary\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ii.co.uk\/analysis-commentary\/eyeq-glossary-ii530574\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">glossary<\/a>\u00a0for explanation of terms. Long-term strategic model.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Monday\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ii.co.uk\/analysis-commentary\/eyeq-10-actionable-trading-signals-week-beginning-19-february-2026-ii537846\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">10 actionable trading signals<\/a>\u00a0flagged <a class=\"chakra-link css-11untlr\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ii.co.uk\/shares\/berkshire-hathaway-inc-class-b\/NYSE:BRK.B\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B (NYSE:BRK.B)<\/a>. It was the cheapest international stock in a macro regime, but the fair value gap was just 1%. <\/p>\n<p>After this week\u2019s broad equity market sell-off, BRK\/B now sits 3.2% cheap to macro conditions. That\u2019s sufficient to fire a new bullish signal.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s also worth noting that the fair value gap has arisen mainly because the stock price is falling. But there\u2019s also a modest rise in eyeQ model value, up 1.2% in the last month.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s also worth noting why that is. On current patterns, it has some strong defensive properties &#8211; spikes in risk aversion and bond market volatility are both positive for the stock.<\/p>\n<p>That suggests we have a blue-chip firm that acts as a relative safe haven in times of trouble, that\u2019s in a sector (Financials) well placed to benefit from US President Donald Trump\u2019s run-it-hot policy mix, and which now screens as cheap, at least from a macro perspective. This looks an interesting prospect for those in buy-the-dip mode.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"eyeQ Berkshire Hathaway chart\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Berk.png\"  class=\"chakra-image css-18yjja7\"  data-id=\"\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"text-small\">Source: eyeQ. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Useful terminology:<\/p>\n<p>Model value<\/p>\n<p>Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.<\/p>\n<p>Model (macro) relevance<\/p>\n<p>How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.<\/p>\n<p>Fair Value Gap (FVG)<\/p>\n<p>The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as \u201crich\u201d. A negative FVG means that it&#8217;s cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.<\/p>\n<p>Long Term model<\/p>\n<p>This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company\u2019s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results &#8211; model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.<\/p>\n<p>These third-party research articles are provided by <a href=\"https:\/\/hs.quant-insight.com\/eyeq-investors\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">eyeQ (Quant Insight)<\/a>. interactive investor does not make any representation as to the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information provided, nor do we accept any liability for any losses, costs, liabilities or expenses that may arise directly or indirectly from your use of, or reliance on, the information (except where we have acted negligently, fraudulently or in wilful default in relation to the production or distribution of the information).<\/p>\n<p>The value of your investments may go down as well as up. You may not get back all the money that you invest.<\/p>\n<p>Equity research is provided for information purposes only. Neither eyeQ (Quant Insight) nor interactive investor have considered your personal circumstances, and the information provided should not be considered a personal recommendation. If you are in any doubt as to the action you should take, please consult an authorised financial adviser.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Disclosure<\/p>\n<p>We use a combination of fundamental and technical analysis in forming our view as to the valuation and prospects of an investment. Where relevant we have set out those particular matters we think are important in the above article, but further detail can be found\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ii.co.uk\/legal-terms\/analytical-approach\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Please note that our article on this investment should not be considered to be a regular publication.<\/p>\n<p>Details of all recommendations issued by ii during the previous 12-month period can be found\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ii.co.uk\/legal-terms\/investment-recommendations\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>ii adheres to a strict code of conduct. \u00a0Contributors may hold shares or have other interests in companies included in these portfolios, which could create a conflict of interests. Contributors intending to write about any financial instruments in which they have an interest are required to disclose such interest to ii and in the article itself. ii will at all times consider whether such interest impairs the objectivity of the recommendation.<\/p>\n<p>In addition, individuals involved in the production of investment articles are subject to a personal account dealing restriction, which prevents them from placing a transaction in the specified instrument(s) for a period before and for five working days after such publication. This is to avoid personal interests conflicting with the interests of the recipients of those investment articles.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u201cOur signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":382510,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[84,4176,4174,4175,56,54,55],"class_list":{"0":"post-382509","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-personal-finance","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-finance","10":"tag-personal-finance","11":"tag-personalfinance","12":"tag-uk","13":"tag-united-kingdom","14":"tag-unitedkingdom"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/382509","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=382509"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/382509\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/382510"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=382509"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=382509"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=382509"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}