Trump’s policies create volatility, hurt dollar, investors sayFed expected to cut rates, undermining dollar appealInvestors diversifying away from U.S. as geopolitics heats up<\/p>\n
LONDON, Jan 26 (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar is coming under fire again in the first few turbulent weeks of 2026 as a growing range of factors — including Washington’s desire for a weaker currency — prompts a rethink of \u200binvestors’ optimistic assumptions for a period of stability for the greenback.<\/p>\n
The dollar on Monday was headed for its biggest three-day slide against a basket of major currencies since last April when U.S. President Donald \u200cTrump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs unleashed an steep selloff in U.S. assets.<\/p>\n
Sign up here.<\/a><\/p>\n In his first year in office, President Trump’s erratic approach to trade and international diplomacy, his attacks on the Federal Reserve that undermine its independence, and huge increases in public spending pushed the dollar down more than 9%, its worst yearly showing since 2017.<\/p>\n So far this year, the dollar was again underperforming other major currencies including the euro, sterling and Swiss franc.<\/p>\n Two lines showing the performance in percent of the dollar index and an index of the dollar based on tradeWHIRLWIND RATE OF CHANGE<\/p>\n “There are a number of factors coming together,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, which manages just over $600 billion worth of assets.<\/p>\n “I don’t think this is a ‘Sell America’ trade, but the fundamentals are coming together, and faster \u200cthan expected.”<\/p>\n Just this month, Trump has threatened to take control of Greenland, slap more tariffs on European allies over the matter, moved to criminally indict \u200bFed Chair Jerome Powell, and overseen an operation to seize the president of Venezuela. On Saturday, he threatened Canada with an effective trade embargo.<\/p>\n While he has backed down on his threats over Greenland and European tariffs, and markets have shaken off the strike on Venezuela, the backdrop is tense.<\/p>\n Market measures of volatility are still running hot and bond market sentiment is fragile, not least because of an aggressive \u200dselloff in Japanese government debt that could spill over into Treasuries, while gold’s relentless scaling of new records is a sign investors are seeking alternative safe-havens.<\/p>\n Trump’s domestic policies, including an aggressive crackdown on illegal immigration that has killed two U.S. citizens this month and sparked protests, could prompt another government shutdown<\/a> this month.<\/p>\n “That threat of a shutdown adds to the tailwind that has been depressing the dollar, adds one more reason for anyone who may be reconsidering investing in U.S. \u2060or hedging dollar exposures,” said Mark Spindel, chief investment officer of Potomac River Capital in Washington.<\/p>\n What’s more, the Fed is still expected to cut interest rates at least twice this year, while other \u200dmajor central banks are pausing or could even hike rates.<\/p>\n This alone makes the dollar less appealing to investors, who could opt to put their money somewhere where lending rates are rising.<\/p>\n Powell, who has resisted pressure from Trump for \u200cfaster rate \u200ccuts, steps down in May. Online betting markets now attach a 50% chance to BlackRock’s bond chief Rick Rieder, an advocate of lower rates like the president, being the likely successor. That was up from less than 10% a week ago, adding to dollar weakness.<\/p>\n U.S. economic policy uncertainty has picked upTIME TO MOVE ONGlobal equities, meanwhile, roared higher last year, thanks in large part to enthusiasm over artificial intelligence. The performance of the S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab<\/a> since Trump’s inauguration has lagged that of other markets. The index has risen by around 15% since then, compared with a 95% surge in Seoul’s Kospi index (.KS11), opens new tab<\/a>, a 40% rise in Tokyo’s Nikkei (.N225), opens new tab<\/a> and a near 30% gain in Shanghai’s \u2060main index (.CSI300), opens new tab<\/a>.<\/p>\n “At the margin, asset managers are keen \u2060to continue to diversify away from the U.S. \u200bIt’s clear that many had been excessively, or felt they were excessively, overweight U.S. markets,” Chris Scicluna, Daiwa Capital Markets economist, said.<\/p>\n Trump has repeatedly said tariffs are necessary to address trade imbalances, with a focus on currencies of Asian countries with which the U.S. has large trade deficits.<\/p>\n On Friday, the Bank of Japan, together with the New York Fed, was suspected of making a series of rate checks for the yen , a possible precursor to the first \u200dbout of joint Japanese-U.S. intervention in 15 years to boost the Japanese currency. The NY Fed acted as a fiscal agent for the U.S. Treasury, according to a source familiar with the matter.<\/p>\n Even with the subsequent yen surge, the Japanese currency is still down around 13% against the dollar in the last year.<\/p>\n TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR FARING MORE STRONGLY<\/p>\n On a trade-weighted basis, however, the dollar has only lost around 5.3% in the last 12 months, based on an index calculated by the Bank for \u200bInternational Settlements.<\/p>\n Investors are becoming more concerned about their dollar exposure, with last year’s decline more down to cyclical factors such \u200das growth moderating, said Nomura’s head of G10 FX strategy Dominic Bunning.<\/p>\n “The difference to me (this year) is that the policies the U.S. is seemingly putting in place are much more antagonistic and geopolitical as opposed to economic with tariffs,” he said.<\/p>\n Reporting by Amanda Cooper, Samuel Indyk and Dhara Ranasinghe; Additional reporting by Suzanne McGee and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss in New York; Editing by Elisa Martinuzzi, Hugh Lawson and Nick Zieminski<\/p>\n Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab<\/a><\/p>\n