{"id":394924,"date":"2026-01-28T11:52:08","date_gmt":"2026-01-28T11:52:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/394924\/"},"modified":"2026-01-28T11:52:08","modified_gmt":"2026-01-28T11:52:08","slug":"englands-most-deprived-areas-to-get-worse-by-next-election-report-for-no-10-finds-england","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/394924\/","title":{"rendered":"England\u2019s most deprived areas to get worse by next election, report for No 10 finds | England"},"content":{"rendered":"

The country\u2019s most deprived neighbourhoods will have higher crime rates and worse unemployment by the end of the parliament, according to a report written at the request of No 10.<\/p>\n

The forecasts from the Independent Commission on Neighbourhoods (Icon) show crime rates and unemployment will rise until the next election in England\u2019s 613 most deprived neighbourhoods, despite the government\u2019s promises to invest in local communities.<\/p>\n

The report\u2019s authors warn the extra money ministers have pumped in is not enough to counteract longer-term trends such as the increase in antisocial behaviour and the problems facing the retail and hospitality sectors.<\/p>\n

Crime rate chart<\/a><\/p>\n

The findings will add to growing unrest among many northern MPs about the government\u2019s changes to local government funding, which they say will suck money away from northern towns.<\/p>\n

And they will make for grim reading for Keir Starmer, who has promised to fight the political threat of Reform UK by investing in local communities<\/a> and regenerating deprived neighbourhoods.<\/p>\n

Ross Mudie, Icon\u2019s head of research analysis and the author of the report, said: \u201cIn many of the areas that have disadvantaged neighbourhoods, such as Blackpool or Knowsley, we are seeing real terms cuts.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe best we are doing is closing the gap on some cuts, the worst is that we are actually leaving councils with historically high levels of deprivation in an even weaker financial position.\u201d<\/p>\n

Former minister Justin Madders, the Labour<\/a> MP for Ellesmere Port, said: \u201cThis is a stark warning that the many positive plans the government have will not be enough for us to reverse the years of decline many northern towns have suffered under the Tories.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe fact that No 10 is asking the question is a good start, but now they know the scale of the challenge and the implications of not acting, it is incumbent on them to come up with a proper plan, with the funding, so that at the next election Labour MPs can point to tangible improvements in their area.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis shows we have to go further and faster to show the positive difference a Labour government can make. Failing to do so will open the door to the populists.\u201d<\/p>\n

Economic inactivity chart<\/a><\/p>\n

Mudie said the government\u2019s flagship Pride in Place scheme, under which nearly 250 areas will get \u00a320m over 10 years for local regeneration, would not be enough to undo the damage being done to disadvantaged neighbourhoods.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Pride in Place programme gets us to the starting line to change disadvantaged communities, but as these forecasts show, we are going to need be much bolder if we are to reverse a decade of austerity, deep structural decline, and decaying high streets,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Mudie analysed trends in neighbourhoods across England, classifying their levels of deprivation by how far away they are from meeting the targets Starmer has set out under his five core \u201cmissions\u201d.<\/p>\n

Neighbourhoods where more people are waiting more than 18 weeks for planned NHS treatment, for example, or where fewer children are ready to learn when they start school, are counted as being more deprived.<\/p>\n

The 613 most deprived neighbourhoods \u2013 defined as \u201cmission critical\u201d by Icon \u2013 are home to 1 million people and are clustered across the former industrial heartlands of the Midlands and the north. They are the areas that gave Boris Johnson his majority in 2019, then went Labour in 2024, and are now being targeted heavily by Reform UK.<\/p>\n

Mudie\u2019s analysis of public data shows that these neighbourhoods have much higher crime and economic inactivity than English averages, with both set to deteriorate over the next four years.<\/p>\n

The average crime rate in these areas is 275 per 1,000 people \u2013 over double the English average \u2013 but in four years\u2019 time it is forecast to be more than 300. The economic inactivity rate, meanwhile, is set to rise from 45% this year to 46% by 2030.<\/p>\n

The one area due to improve is health outcomes, with the number of people classified as being \u201cin poor health\u201d due to fall slightly from 10.6% this year to 10.3% by 2030.<\/p>\n

In a separate report released on Wednesday, Icon argues the government should commit as much as \u00a32.5bn a year extra for disadvantaged neighbourhoods.<\/p>\n

Miatta Fahnbulleh, the local government minister, said: \u201cThe commission is right that communities are impatient for change and we don\u2019t have a moment to lose. That is why we are getting behind 244 communities across the country through our Pride in Place programme, backed by \u00a35bn over the next decade.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The country\u2019s most deprived neighbourhoods will have higher crime rates and worse unemployment by the end of the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":394925,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[49,50,51,47,52,48],"class_list":{"0":"post-394924","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-headlines","8":"tag-headlines","9":"tag-news","10":"tag-top-news","11":"tag-top-stories","12":"tag-topnews","13":"tag-topstories"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/394924","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=394924"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/394924\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/394925"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=394924"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=394924"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=394924"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}