{"id":411392,"date":"2026-02-06T16:20:08","date_gmt":"2026-02-06T16:20:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/411392\/"},"modified":"2026-02-06T16:20:08","modified_gmt":"2026-02-06T16:20:08","slug":"should-britain-act-more-like-a-major-or-middle-power","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/411392\/","title":{"rendered":"Should Britain act more like a major or middle power?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>Image generated using Artificial Intelligence<\/p>\n

As geopolitical competition intensifies, the major powers are beginning to contemplate territorial annexation, control of supply chains and trade routes, and forging spheres of influence \u2013 not dissimilar to the period which presaged the First World War. To counter this disorder, arguments have been made<\/a> that so-called \u2018middle powers\u2019 should group together to frustrate geopolitical competition and uphold multilateralism.<\/p>\n

The United Kingdom (UK) looks set to retain a significant powerbase in the 21st century. It is a nuclear-armed state, and boasts both the world\u2019s sixth largest defence budget<\/a> and Gross Domestic Product<\/a> (GDP). With these indicators of power in mind, for this week\u2019s Big Ask, we asked eight experts: Should Britain act more like a major or middle power?<\/p>\n

Andrew Ehrhardt<\/p>\n

Ax:son Johnson Institute for Statecraft and Diplomacy, Postdoctoral Fellow, SAIS Johns Hopkins, and Visiting Fellow, Centre for Grand Strategy, King\u2019s College London<\/p>\n

The concept of \u2018middle powers\u2019, as amorphous as it is, has a long tradition in \u2018Western\u2019 political and diplomatic thought. From the speech<\/a> given by Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada, at Davos to the Harvard Kennedy School\u2019s Middle Power Project<\/a>, it has returned as one of the most fashionable terms in foreign policy discourse.<\/p>\n

By most metrics, the UK could be considered a middle power. While not on the level of \u2018superpowers\u2019 such as the United States (US) and People\u2019s Republic of China (PRC), Britain boasts impressive national capabilities and enviable positions in international fora. These are well known, though often underappreciated.<\/p>\n

Debates over middle power status are not only distracting, but also tend to force complacency or cynicism. Where some find comfort in status, others lament what they see as an irreversible decline \u2013 a country that, on the international stage, is subject to the whims of more powerful actors.<\/p>\n

It is important not to let categories become constraints. Whether the UK is a middle power or not is largely irrelevant to the practice of foreign policy. Here the focus must be on where, how and when Britain \u2013 undoubtedly a major player in world affairs \u2013 can and should use its capabilities and influence to shape what is a more fluid international environment.<\/p>\n

The next five years will see the development of new economic, political and security constellations. It is imperative that His Majesty\u2019s (HM) Government both understand how these can work in the national interest and harness the UK\u2019s capabilities and reputation to take the initiative in forming new (or reinforcing old) alignments.<\/p>\n

William Freer<\/a><\/p>\n

Research Fellow (National Security), Council on Geostrategy<\/p>\n

While it is clear that Britain is not a superpower, the power base and capabilities at the disposal of HM Government are deep enough and wide enough that the UK can and should act like a major power. Even those who would claim it is more of a \u2018middle\u2019 power must recognise that Britain is first among equals. What it suffers from in this new era of geopolitical competition is not lack of resources, but a lack of confidence and lack of imagination.<\/p>\n

This is not a dissimilar position to that which England found itself in prior to the Industrial Revolution. Grand strategies of the past also show that when the UK acted with energy and imagination, it could achieve impressive results against ostensibly far more powerful neighbours.<\/p>\n

In a new order where powerful countries are facing fewer restraints, it is imperative that Britain act like a major power that shapes its environment, rather than a middle power subject to the prevailing winds. By becoming a global convener, with investment in the hard power \u2013 and the national economic and scientific powerbase needed to sustain it \u2013 to underpin its position, the UK will surprise itself with the results it can achieve.<\/p>\n

At a canter, there is already a catalogue of impressive results, including AUKUS, the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) and leadership on support for Ukraine, to name just three. Imagine what Britain could do with more confidence and energy.<\/p>\n

Of course, this would necessitate a rebalancing of the division of government spending, which will be politically challenging, but a greater ability to shape the world order during this period of transition and renegotiation may well save a reduced welfare state in the long run.<\/p>\n

Dr Melanie Garson<\/a><\/p>\n

Adjunct Fellow, Council on Geostrategy, and Associate Professor in International Security and Conflict Resolution, University College London<\/p>\n

In an international system that is currently in a state of flux as it adjusts to the changing dynamics of new notions of power in the Intelligence Age, there is a real question as to whether Britain should seek to define itself or its actions as either, and whether these definitions continue to be useful at all.<\/p>\n

The key features of the system have irrevocably changed. Placing expected behaviour within one of these frames is likely to constrain action and creativity negatively, both militarily and diplomatically. Perhaps the question is: \u2018what is it to be an \u201cintelligent power\u201d, \u201ctrusted-tech power\u201d or a \u201cfrontier power\u201d, with the capability to leverage influence quickly with key alliances which advance British interests?\u2019<\/p>\n

The UK should stand back and survey the long-term trajectory of its ambitions as an intelligent or frontier power and the fora which it needs to influence for a new frontier or intelligent foreign policy approach, rather than being constrained by the limits of designations from a system that may no longer be relevant.<\/p>\n

Sam Goodman<\/p>\n

Senior Director of Policy, China Strategic Risks Institute<\/p>\n

Britain appears to struggle with the unique circumstance of being a major power that, in the past, has been hampered by policy decisions reflecting a middle power mentality. It is the only way one could explain the Coalition Government\u2019s decision to decimate the defence budget, the decision to dismantle the UK\u2019s development aid department (which was the gold standard and admired by many of its partners) and to cede control of the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT).<\/p>\n

Such a mentality appears to suggest that the UK\u2019s future is a binary choice between becoming more of a tributary state to the US, or rejoining the European Union (EU). This view offers Britain little autonomy of its own, and is predicated on the idea that its economy is uncompetitive, its voice irrelevant in multilateral institutions and its hard power inferior to its peers. In reality, there is much the UK could learn from other countries, such as Brazil, France, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and T\u00fcrkiye, all of whom punch above their weight in different aspects of foreign policy.<\/p>\n

Britain has much to its advantage \u2013 and to the envy of its peers \u2013 from dominance in soft power to its shipbuilding industry. Its Permanent Five (P5) status at the United Nations (UN) Security Council and its nuclear deterrent ensure that even if it does not always think so, the UK will remain a major power.<\/p>\n

Putting aside the US and the PRC, Britain sits firmly in a small group of major powers that have a sizeable military, significant soft power, a large economy and can project influence in most corners of the globe.<\/p>\n

A wise policymaker in Whitehall should take the lessons from middle powers that punch above their weight and apply them to the UK\u2019s unique strengths. In doing so, a middle power mentality can be turned into an advantage for a major power.<\/p>\n

Patrick Horgan OBE<\/p>\n

Senior Adviser, Geopolitical Strategy, GMTL Advisory Ltd.<\/p>\n

Britain should act in a way that is consistent with its resources, capabilities and defining attributes. This statement of the obvious needs reiteration in the face of false expectations or popular assumptions that can stem from nostalgia, ignorance or the rigid tramlines of ideology and definitional labels. The UK is no superpower, but nor is it insignificant or lacking in influence in global affairs.<\/p>\n

What is clear is that the international context in which Britain enjoyed influence and advantages well beyond those merited by sheer economic, demographic or territorial scale has changed profoundly. Strength and relevance derived from the intimacy of the \u2018special relationship\u2019 with the US is diminished; permanent representation on the UN Security Council counts for less when that body is comprehensively hobbled by the vetoes of other permanent members; and the UK\u2019s ability to shape the agenda and approach of Europe as a whole was sacrificed on the altar of Brexit.<\/p>\n

This altered context demands adaptation and flexibility in response. Britain has qualities that provide continued relevance and impact globally: research and universities; some areas of technology, defence and industrial expertise; finance; a nuclear deterrent; the reach of the English language; security and intelligence relationships; and alliances. These are the tools and channels to use in pursuing the UK\u2019s national interest in a world where many countries remain keen to work with it as a partner.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, Britain\u2019s position in global affairs rests on the effective retention, nurturing and regeneration of inherent domestic capabilities and attributes, built on a foundation of political stability and a growing economy. If that foundation is not kept secure, any discussion of major or middle power status will be seen with hindsight as nothing but hubristic hot air.<\/p>\n

Dr Robert Johnson<\/a><\/p>\n

Honorary Fellow, Council on Geostrategy, and Director, Oxford Strategy, Statecraft and Technology (Changing Character of War) Centre<\/p>\n

As one of the wealthiest nations of the world, with a nuclear-armed navy, and membership of the Permanent Five of the United Nations (UN) Security Council, the UK is obliged to act as a significant global power. It has alliance and treaty terms it has pledged to uphold.<\/p>\n

If it is clear it should act, the question is whether it has the capability and confidence to do so. In an era of assertive powers, Britain seems unable to grasp that the values-led order is over. It requires nothing short of a radical reassessment of its internal priorities and an acceleration of its defence modernisation.<\/p>\n

Vague promises of future defence spending and international agreements will not secure its position as primus inter pares among medium powers. Its position necessitates not only action, but resolution in doing so.<\/p>\n

James Rogers<\/a><\/p>\n

Co-founder (Research), Council on Geostrategy<\/p>\n

When the UK is positioned as a \u2018middle power\u2019, it cannot be an expression of status. Of the 196 states recognised by HM Government, Britain clearly sits towards the top of the global hierarchy.<\/p>\n

True, it is not a superpower on par with the US or \u2013 to a lesser extent \u2013 the PRC, but it stands above most other countries. Within the next five years, it is projected to leap over Japan and edge closer to Germany as the world\u2019s fifth largest economy<\/a>. It remains a nuclear weapons state, a diplomatic heavyweight, and a scientific and technological power with few equals.<\/p>\n

Asserting that the UK is a middle power is less of a statement of fact and more a statement of mind. It defangs the country, both in terms of status and policy, and represents a retreat from the burdens of leadership and a preference for subordination to international structures. Its proponents urge the country to \u2018know its place\u2019; yet, this is a self-imposed ceiling which ignores the leverage HM Government can actually hold. This mindset is a strand of isolationism, which seeks to insulate Britain from the friction that inevitably accompanies global influence.<\/p>\n

In an era defined by renewed geopolitical confrontation, however, modesty is a strategic liability. The superpowers \u2013 even Russia \u2013 are aggressively expanding their spheres of influence<\/a>. If the UK adopts the posture of a middle power, it does not correct its self-image; it merely cedes ground to authoritarian rivals who suffer no such crises of confidence.<\/p>\n

And it will not be Britain that suffers most. It will be the nation\u2019s smaller allies and partners.<\/p>\n

Prof. Richard Whitman<\/a><\/p>\n

Professor of International Relations, University of Kent<\/p>\n

Britain should act more like a major power \u2013 not out of nostalgia, but out of necessity. In a fragmenting global order, the space for constructive \u2018middle power\u2019 cooperation does not arise spontaneously. It is created and sustained by states willing to bear the costs of leadership: underwriting institutions, enforcing norms, and shaping agendas. Without that stabilising role, multilateralism becomes procedural rather than political, and middle power coordination quickly loses traction.<\/p>\n

Recent arguments by figures such as Carney have stressed the growing importance of middle powers in defending an open international system. But that defence depends on enabling actions conducive for such an international environment.<\/p>\n

The UK is unusually well-placed to help provide such actions. It retains global diplomatic reach, serious intelligence and military capabilities, and deep institutional memory within the multilateral system. Acting like a major power means using those assets deliberately: setting standards, convening coalitions and accepting responsibility when rules are challenged.<\/p>\n

If Britain retreats into a self-conception that it is one middle power among many, it risks accelerating the very fragmentation it seeks to manage. Paradoxically, the best way for the UK to support middle powers is not to join them, but to lead in a way that makes their cooperation possible.<\/p>\n

If you enjoyed this Big Ask, please subscribe or pledge your support!<\/p>\n

What do you think about the perspectives put forward in this Big Ask? Why not leave a comment below?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Image generated using Artificial Intelligence As geopolitical competition intensifies, the major powers are beginning to contemplate territorial annexation,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":411393,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[59,57,58,50,56,54,55],"class_list":{"0":"post-411392","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-united-kingdom","8":"tag-gb","9":"tag-great-britain","10":"tag-greatbritain","11":"tag-news","12":"tag-uk","13":"tag-united-kingdom","14":"tag-unitedkingdom"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/411392","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=411392"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/411392\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/411393"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=411392"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=411392"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=411392"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}