{"id":414857,"date":"2026-02-08T16:24:07","date_gmt":"2026-02-08T16:24:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/414857\/"},"modified":"2026-02-08T16:24:07","modified_gmt":"2026-02-08T16:24:07","slug":"a-pollsters-nightmare-stakes-are-high-in-three-way-fight-for-gorton-and-denton-byelections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/414857\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018A pollster\u2019s nightmare\u2019: stakes are high in three-way fight for Gorton and Denton | Byelections"},"content":{"rendered":"

As Nigel Farage cut the ribbon on Reform UK\u2019s byelection headquarters in Greater Manchester<\/a> this week, Labour\u2019s candidate, Angeliki Stogia, sat tearfully in a cafe nearby.<\/p>\n

Politicians do not often show their emotion but for Stogia, who arrived in Britain as a student from Greece in 1995, this is personal. \u201cI am angry,\u201d she said of Farage\u2019s party. \u201cI am very, very angry. How dare they come here and spread this division?\u201d<\/p>\n

Her voice breaking, she added: \u201cFor them, this is a show. For me, this is my community. This is my people.\u201d<\/p>\n

Westminster byelections are often bruising affairs but the battle for Gorton and Denton is one of the most unpredictable contests, with the highest stakes, in years. Labour is fighting both Reform UK and the Green party to cling on to its 13,000-vote majority after the retirement<\/a> last month of Andrew Gwynne, who stepped down after the \u201cvile\u201d Trigger Me Timbers WhatsApp scandal.<\/p>\n

Starmer\u2019s government is engulfed in crisis<\/a> over Peter Mandelson\u2019s links to Jeffrey Epstein, and defeat on 26 February is likely to prompt further calls<\/a> for the prime minister to quit.<\/p>\n

Labour has dominated this diverse patch of south-east Manchester for decades. But less than three weeks before polling day, the Green party<\/a> is the bookies\u2019 favourite.<\/p>\n

The Labour candidate, Angeliki Stogia, in a cafe in Denton. Photograph: Christopher Thomond\/The Guardian<\/p>\n

Sheltering from a biting wind in Denton this week, Stogia accused the Greens of \u201clying\u201d to the public by printing a \u201cmisleading\u201d chart on its leaflets suggesting that only they could beat Reform UK<\/a>.<\/p>\n

She was worried, she said, that in such a tight contest it could only benefit Reform. In last year\u2019s Runcorn and Helsby byelection, a split vote on the left allowed Farage\u2019s party to win by six votes.<\/p>\n

\u201cI am very disappointed with what they\u2019re putting out, because in Runcorn we lost by six votes,\u201d said the Labour<\/a> councillor. \u201cIt is the progressive side that has lost by six votes.<\/p>\n

\u201cI worry that we will lose it. Every Green vote is going to make Reform very happy.\u201d<\/p>\n

Prof Robert Ford, of the University of Manchester<\/a>, said the key to understanding this byelection was that for every vote on the Farage-friendly Denton side, there were two votes on the larger, more diverse and left-leaning Manchester side.<\/p>\n

In 2024, nearly 80% of the constituency backed a party on the left. The only realistic way that Reform UK can win, then, is if the Green party splits the Labour vote.<\/p>\n

The task for Zack Polanski\u2019s party is huge: it has no councillors in the constituency and finished 14,000 votes behind Labour in 2024. Campaigners have had to appeal for help to store placards and posters in local sheds.<\/p>\n

The Green party candidate, Hannah Spencer, campaigning in Denton. Photograph: Christopher Thomond\/The Guardian<\/p>\n

But what they lack in resources, they make up for in enthusiasm. In a windswept Morrisons car park, an army of volunteers has gathered in rainproof jackets and walking boots to deliver some of the day\u2019s 40,000 leaflets. They have travelled from as far as Birmingham, Barnsley and Belper and by mid-afternoon all the flyers are gone.<\/p>\n

Their candidate, the 34-year-old plumber Hannah Spencer, is approaching something like local fame. Originally from Bolton, Spencer only joined the Green party three years ago and quickly became a councillor and a rising star in the mould of the party\u2019s new eco-populist leader.<\/p>\n

Now she pounds the streets with her four rescue greyhounds, talking more about the cost of living, housing and crime than clean energy and carbon emissions.<\/p>\n

Nigel Farage (right) opening Reform UK\u2019s campaign headquarters in Denton alongside its candidate, Matt Goodwin. Photograph: Christopher Thomond\/The Guardian<\/p>\n

Spencer is a marked contrast to the Reform UK candidate, Matt Goodwin, an academic turned GB News polemicist. Online she is billed as \u201cReform\u2019s worst nightmare\u201d and \u201cthe grafter versus the grifter\u201d. On Thursday, Spencer took time off from the campaign to train as a plasterer while Goodwin posed for photos with Farage.<\/p>\n

\u201cHe\u2019s just been bussed in,\u201d she said of Goodwin. \u201cHe\u2019s just a TV presenter who wants to further his own career, and I\u2019ve proved that I will work.\u201d<\/p>\n

Spencer, who appeared in the Guardian<\/a> 13 years ago as one of the best-dressed at Glastonbury, has had to get used to the overnight attention. Social media trolls call her a \u201cfake plumber\u201d and erroneously claim she is married to an ultra-wealthy financier. \u201cI wish,\u201d she laughed. \u201cI can\u2019t even get a text back.\u201d<\/p>\n

She had to be chaperoned by a security guard this week after a \u201cvery, very angry\u201d man shouted \u201cfake plumber\u201d abuse into the party\u2019s Denton campaign centre. \u201cI\u2019m not allowed anywhere by myself now,\u201d she said. \u201cIt\u2019s surreal.\u201d<\/p>\n

Labour, while noting Spencer\u2019s popularity, is adamant that only it can beat Reform. But it is clear that the Greens \u2013 who have never had an MP north of East Anglia \u2013 are now an electoral force in Labour\u2019s back yard. And other parties are standing aside.<\/p>\n

George Galloway\u2019s Workers party \u2013 which polled 10% of the vote in this seat in 2024 \u2013 has encouraged its supporters to back the Greens, as has Jeremy Corbyn\u2019s Your Party. A campaign group, the Muslim Vote, is also backing Spencer.<\/p>\n

Sources close to Galloway said the 71-year-old former Labour MP had been ready to stand in the byelection \u2013 marking his eighth electoral contest since 2010 \u2013 but only if Andy Burnham had been selected as Labour\u2019s candidate.<\/p>\n

When Starmer\u2019s allies blocked the Greater Manchester mayor from standing, Galloway was stood down and his team decided not to field a candidate after a series of meetings with Green party officials.<\/p>\n

About 28% of the constituency identifies as Muslim, according to the latest census, but that rises to at least half of the population in two former Labour strongholds, Longsight and Levenshulme.<\/p>\n

Lucy Powell, Labour\u2019s deputy leader and the MP for neighbouring Manchester Central, said it was \u201clazy\u201d to suggest that the pro-Palestinian Workers party vote would simply switch to the Greens.<\/p>\n

Anger over Gaza was \u201cnot as vociferous\u201d against Labour as it was in 2024, she said. \u201cI went to a mosque the other day [and] I was treated like a Hollywood star. People would have just turned to turn their backs to me two years ago,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

Behind his till in Mount Auto Parts, in Longsight, Ghulam Ghaus considered his most pressing issues \u2013 Gaza, inflation and local crime \u2013 then gestured outside: \u201cEverything is shit.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ghaus, 73, is a local Labour party member and plans to vote for the party on 26 February out of familiarity \u2013 he knows the councillors \u2013 rather than enthusiasm. \u201cThe Green party have good policies but they\u2019re not so well known \u2013 you only see them on election day,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Down the street, Catherine O\u2019Connor, 66, said her friends told her to vote for Reform but she was not a fan of its hardline immigration policies. \u201cWe\u2019re a multicultural country \u2013 we\u2019ve got to get on with one another,\u201d she said. \u201cI have a lovely Asian neighbour and every Eid they bring food around. That\u2019s really sweet and I send them a thank you card.\u201d<\/p>\n

O\u2019Connor, a retired cleaner who usually votes Labour, said she would switch to the Green party this time: \u201cThat Starmer\u2019s not much good, is he?\u201d<\/p>\n

Opening his front door to Spencer in Denton last week, Alf Warrender, 62, politely told her he would be voting for Reform. Why? \u201cThe Gwynnes,\u201d he said, referring to the resigning MP and his Labour councillor wife, Allison. \u201cWe were cheated by Labour.\u201d<\/p>\n

Warrender, a retired transport manager, said he was a Green sympathiser but considered it a wasted vote. Reform UK was the only party that could turf out Labour, he reckoned.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf I thought the Greens would get in, I would vote Green,\u201d he said, taking a \u201cHannah the plumber\u201d leaflet. \u201cI\u2019m not a fan of Reform but I\u2019m even less of a fan of Labour.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hannah Spencer speaking to Alf and Jo Warrender in Denton. Photograph: Christopher Thomond\/The Guardian<\/p>\n

His wife, Jo, a charity worker, was already planning to vote for Spencer \u2013 she was \u201cabsolutely disgusted\u201d by the Trigger Me Timbers scandal \u2013 and took a Green party poster for their front window. \u201cWe know which way it\u2019s going in this house, don\u2019t we?\u201d her husband joked.<\/p>\n

The only certainty about this election, said<\/a> Ford, was that it was a \u201cpollster\u2019s nightmare\u201d. \u201cThree parties could win, and each can tell a plausible story now about how they might do it,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Back in Cafe Plus in Denton, Stogia made one final plea before being hurried off to her next event: \u201cI want people to give me a chance. Give me a chance. I\u2019m fighting at every level. I\u2019m fighting the lies. I\u2019m fighting at a national level. It feels positive but we\u2019ve got a fight on our hands.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"As Nigel Farage cut the ribbon on Reform UK\u2019s byelection headquarters in Greater Manchester this week, Labour\u2019s candidate,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":414858,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[59,57,58,50,56,54,55],"class_list":{"0":"post-414857","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-united-kingdom","8":"tag-gb","9":"tag-great-britain","10":"tag-greatbritain","11":"tag-news","12":"tag-uk","13":"tag-united-kingdom","14":"tag-unitedkingdom"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/414857","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=414857"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/414857\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/414858"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=414857"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=414857"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=414857"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}