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Improved certainty after Rachel Reeves\u2019 budget may have helped drive a spending rise (Ben Birchall\/PA) (PA Wire) <\/p>\n Improved certainty after Rachel Reeves\u2019 budget may have helped drive a spending rise (Ben Birchall\/PA) (PA Wire) <\/p>\n
The UK economy is anticipated to have registered modest growth during the final quarter of 2025, as it navigated persistent budget<\/a> uncertainty, according to leading economists.<\/p>\n The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is set to release crucial GDP<\/a> figures for December and the entire fourth quarter on Thursday, offering a clearer picture of the nation’s economic performance.<\/p>\n Economists largely predict a 0.1 per cent expansion for the quarter. However, some analysts suggest the growth could be marginally higher, buoyed by stronger-than-expected activity in November and a perceived increase in clarity following the autumn Budget, which may have supported businesses in the run-up to the festive season.<\/p>\n This follows earlier ONS data indicating a 0.1 per cent growth in the three months leading to September.<\/p>\n The subsequent months saw a 0.1 per cent contraction in October, followed by a 0.3 per cent rebound in November, largely attributed to a recovery in manufacturing output at Jaguar Land Rover<\/a> after a significant cyberattack.<\/p>\n Despite this, December is projected to have experienced no growth, according to estimates from Pantheon Macroeconomics.<\/p>\n Several industry surveys, including the month\u2019s construction PMI data, also pointed to continued weakness across housing, commercial construction, and civil engineering sectors.<\/p>\n Conversely, others believe that improved certainty post-Budget might have stimulated a modest rise in spending.<\/p>\n Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, commented: “It is likely that economic activity picked up after the budget once that cloud of uncertainty shifted to the rear view mirror in December.<\/p>\n \u201cPlus, there could have been an improvement in the services sector with consumers spending on things like food and beverages, retail, and hotels around the festive season.”<\/p>\n Robert Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, suggested GDP growth “could tip to 0.2%” but maintained his original prediction of 0.1 per cent.<\/p>\n He added: “We think the broad thrust from activity in the services sub-sectors in December indicates that budget uncertainty is already fading quickly.”<\/p>\n The Bank of England believes the economy grew by 1.4 per cent last year (John Walton\/PA) (PA Wire) <\/p>\n