{"id":428007,"date":"2026-02-16T02:54:09","date_gmt":"2026-02-16T02:54:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/428007\/"},"modified":"2026-02-16T02:54:09","modified_gmt":"2026-02-16T02:54:09","slug":"japans-economy-avoids-technical-recession-but-fourth-quarter-rebound-misses-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/428007\/","title":{"rendered":"Japan&#8217;s economy avoids technical recession, but fourth-quarter rebound misses expectations"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Pedestrians stand in front of an electronic quotation board displaying the numbers of the Nikkei Stock Average on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Tokyo on Feb. 3, 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Kazuhiro Nogi | Afp | Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>Japan&#8217;s economy grew 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with the previous three months, narrowly avoiding a technical recession.<\/p>\n<p>While it was a reversal of the 0.7% contraction in the third quarter, the gross domestic product missed expectations of a 0.4% expansion by economists polled by Reuters.<\/p>\n<p>A technical recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction. <\/p>\n<p>On an annualized basis, output rose 0.2%, compared with forecasts of 1.6%, following a 2.3% decline in the previous quarter.<\/p>\n<p>Compared with a year earlier, fourth-quarter GDP expanded 0.1%, slowing from 0.6% in the third quarter. Private consumption drove the modest expansion, offsetting weakness in exports and public spending, according to data from Japan&#8217;s Cabinet Office.<\/p>\n<p>Following the data release, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/.N225\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Nikkei 225<\/a> opened up 0.12%, but the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/JPY=\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">yen<\/a> weakened 0.25% to 153.06 against the dollar.<\/p>\n<p>Stock Chart IconStock chart icon<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static-redesign.cnbcfm.com\/dist\/a54b41835a8b60db28c2.svg\" class=\"Collapsible-dismissButton\" alt=\"hide content\"\/><\/p>\n<p>The Bank of Japan in January\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.boj.or.jp\/en\/mopo\/outlook\/gor2601a.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">raised its economic growth forecast<\/a>\u00a0for the fiscal year ending March 2026 to 0.9% from 0.7%. It also lifted its fiscal 2026 outlook to 1% from 0.7%.<\/p>\n<p>The central bank said it expects moderate expansion as other countries return to growth. The BOJ also said it sees a virtuous cycle of rising prices and wages, supported by the government&#8217;s economic measures and accommodative financial conditions.<\/p>\n<p>The data also comes as Japan works with the U.S., its second-largest trading partner, on a $550 billion investment pledge under its trade deal with Washington.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www3.nhk.or.jp\/nhkworld\/en\/news\/20260213_B1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Public broadcaster NHK reported<\/a> last Friday that Tokyo and Washington have yet to agree on the first projects tied to the pledge. <\/p>\n<p>Japan Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa was quoted as saying he hoped the initial projects would be finalized before Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi meets U.S. President Donald Trump.<\/p>\n<p>Trump had announced the meeting with Takaichi just before the Feb. 8 Lower House election, which saw Takaichi lead the ruling Liberal Democratic Party to a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/11\/21\/japans-cabinet-announces-135-billion-stimulus-package-nhk.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">landslide victory<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>After her victory, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/asia-pacific\/why-japans-emboldened-pm-wont-toy-with-risks-weak-yen-2026-02-11\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Takaichi said<\/a> last Monday that she would support economic growth by boosting investment through &#8220;proactive&#8221; fiscal policy, although she did not elaborate. <\/p>\n<p>She had earlier pledged to suspend food taxes for two years and boost defence spending to 2% of the country&#8217;s GDP.<\/p>\n<p>Defense will be the next major catalyst driving Japanese equities higher, said Bruce Kirk, Chief Japan Equity Strategist and managing director at Goldman Sachs. <\/p>\n<p>Speaking to CNBC&#8217;s &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/asia-squawk-box\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Squawk Box Asia<\/a>,&#8221; Kirk pointed to Takaichi&#8217;s upcoming meeting with Trump, saying he expects a &#8220;flurry of announcements&#8221; involving Japanese and U.S. companies across areas such as industrialization, factory automation, and shipbuilding. <\/p>\n<p>Kirk also highlighted a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/maritimemight\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">document released<\/a> by the Trump administration over the weekend that called for the restoration of U.S. maritime dominance and touted cooperation with Japan and South Korea in revitalizing shipbuilding.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/japan.kantei.go.jp\/104\/statement\/202512\/26kaiken.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Before the election<\/a>, Takaichi had announced a record 122 trillion yen budget for the fiscal year starting April 1, marking a second straight year of record spending and vowing to support households with cost-of-living pressures. <\/p>\n<p>Japan&#8217;s inflation had slowed sharply to 2.1% in January, its lowest level since March 2022. Still, prices have remained above the Bank of Japan&#8217;s 2% target for 45 consecutive months.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CNBC&#8217;s Martin Soong contributed to this report.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Pedestrians stand in front of an electronic quotation board displaying the numbers of the Nikkei Stock Average on&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":428008,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[5754,390,5753,6146,84,273,1294,386,5306,5751,56,54,55,5746,6147],"class_list":{"0":"post-428007","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-asia-economy","9":"tag-breaking-news","10":"tag-breaking-news-asia","11":"tag-breaking-news-economy","12":"tag-business","13":"tag-business-news","14":"tag-economy","15":"tag-japan","16":"tag-japan-government","17":"tag-nikkei-225-index","18":"tag-uk","19":"tag-united-kingdom","20":"tag-unitedkingdom","21":"tag-usd-jpy","22":"tag-world-economy"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/428007","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=428007"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/428007\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/428008"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=428007"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=428007"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=428007"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}