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36,500 deaths in context: How Iran\u2019s toll compares with wars and crackdowns<\/a>![\"Iran](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/6c956dccc47625256aed5fa9d7824a74e8d59540-5328x3552.jpg\"\/)
Iran crossed point of no return as protests collide with economic exhaustion<\/a><\/p>\nPessimistic scenarios<\/p>\n
Since the mid-2010s \u2013 especially after the civil wars in Syria and Lebanon \u2013 much of the media conversation about a post-Islamic Republic Iran has centered on worst-case outcomes. Those arguments have resurfaced again in recent months. The main scenarios typically cited are:<\/p>\n
War and foreign intervention: In a central power vacuum, neighboring states could intervene directly or back separatist groups. Yet after the fall of Iraq\u2019s Baathist regime and the Taliban in Afghanistan, regime collapse did not automatically trigger large-scale foreign invasions.<\/p>\n
The challenge of post-collapse security, the argument goes, is likely to be as much political as military.<\/p>\n
The Iran Prosperity Project, launched in 2025 as a transition-era economic and governance blueprint supported by exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi, sets out an \u201cemergency phase\u201d handbook that urges early outreach to neighbors \u2013 particularly Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey \u2013 as a way to contain spillover risks and reduce the chances of destabilization after a collapse.<\/p>\n
Fragmentation and civil war: Another fear is a spiral into armed conflict \u2013 either from forces loyal to the Islamic Republic resisting change, or from ideological and ethnic fighting on the model of Syria, Libya or Yemen \u2013 creating space for extremist groups such as ISIS and driving insecurity along Iran\u2019s borders. Supporters of this view point to the danger of militia-style violence and state breakdown.<\/p>\n
At the same time, the reported entry of at least 5,000 Iraqi mercenaries during the January crackdown could be read as a sign of uncertainty about the reliability of domestic forces.<\/p>\n
And during the January uprising, the same pro-monarchy slogans were heard from Kurdish-majority Kermanshah to Turkish-dominant Tabriz and Baluch-majority Zahedan \u2013 alongside Tehran and Fars \u2013 without clear evidence of widespread ethnic or sectarian fracture, even as the risk is still seen as latent.<\/p>\n
A rebranded Revolutionary Guard dictatorship: In this scenario, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fills the vacuum, consolidating power with a less overtly religious posture. <\/p>\n
But the IRGC\u2019s reach is already a central driver of international pressure on the current system, making it unlikely \u2013 under this reading \u2013 that foreign powers would accept its continued dominance after a collapse.<\/p>\n
A drawn-out transition: A slower-motion breakdown is another widely cited possibility: deepening economic isolation, accelerating brain drain, sharp declines in production, rolling protests and a society worn down by exhaustion and uncertainty.<\/p>\n
Disillusionment with transitional justice and a revival of the Islamic Republic: A further risk is political backlash if accountability is perceived as weak. Public anger over mass killings and systemic corruption could turn against a transitional administration if leading perpetrators are not quickly brought to justice and if assets transferred abroad \u2013 an outflow US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pointed to in January \u2013 cannot be traced and seized. In that climate, loyalist networks could regroup, backed by money moved offshore.<\/p>\n
Planning for transition<\/p>\n
By most economic and statistical measures, Iran under the Islamic Republic already bears the hallmarks of a war-damaged state. The January killings were unprecedented in scale over such a short period.<\/p>\n
In recent years, the Iran Prosperity Project \u2013 backed by Prince Reza Pahlavi and affiliated with advocacy organization the National Union for Democracy in Iran \u2013 has developed an extensive policy framework for a post-Islamic Republic transition.<\/p>\n
A series of white papers published on the project\u2019s website address governance, energy, foreign policy, healthcare, industry and macroeconomic stabilization.<\/p>\n
From these documents, the authors compiled an \u201cEmergency Period Handbook\u201d outlining how to manage the interval between regime collapse and the installation of a new government.<\/p>\n
The latest version, released in summer 2025, spans 15 chapters and focuses on the first 100 to 180 days after the fall of the Islamic Republic.<\/p>\n
Supporters describe it as the only fully structured opposition blueprint for the immediate post-collapse period, drafted by a 26-member team of specialists with input from additional unnamed advisers inside and outside Iran, whose identities are withheld for security reasons.<\/p>\n
The plan assumes the absence of civil war and broad public backing for Prince Pahlavi during the transition.<\/p>\n
Preventing famine and securing essential goods<\/p>\n
One of the first challenges in any transition would be stabilizing supply chains.<\/p>\n
Mohammadreza Jahanparvar, an economist involved in the project, told Iran International that financing essential imports would not be the primary obstacle.<\/p>\n
\u201cFunding essential goods is not particularly difficult,\u201d he said. \u201cThe greater challenge is restoring communication and negotiation with suppliers. Iran has never been sanctioned on food.\u201d<\/p>\n
According to Jahanparvar, supplier countries have been identified and preliminary discussions held to allow imports to resume immediately after regime collapse.<\/p>\n
Security, however, poses a parallel challenge. Control over ports, customs terminals and transportation corridors would be critical to prevent disruption. The handbook\u2019s section on \u201cMaintaining Core Functions\u201d prioritizes the rapid restoration and protection of vital systems, including food production and healthcare, from day one through the first three months.<\/p>\n
Maintaining uninterrupted flows of energy and water is another pillar. In its \u201cSeize and Stabilize\u201d section, the plan calls for securing key infrastructure \u2013 energy facilities, oil and gas installations, water systems and power plants \u2013 using vetted army units to deter sabotage. The criteria for vetting are not publicly detailed, likely for security reasons.<\/p>\n
A related initiative, known as \u201cNational Cooperation,\u201d was launched in July 2025. It invited civil servants, security personnel and members of the armed forces to signal their willingness to cooperate in a future transition by scanning a QR code broadcast during a live Iran International program. In August, Prince Pahlavi said 50,000 individuals had responded. Iran\u2019s armed forces are estimated to number roughly 640,000.<\/p>\n
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