{"id":436637,"date":"2026-02-20T19:48:59","date_gmt":"2026-02-20T19:48:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/436637\/"},"modified":"2026-02-20T19:48:59","modified_gmt":"2026-02-20T19:48:59","slug":"us-q4-advance-gdp-1-4-vs-3-0-expected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/436637\/","title":{"rendered":"US Q4 advance GDP +1.4% vs +3.0% expected"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/news\/us-final-q3-gdp-44-vs-43-expected-20260122\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"article-link\" data-v-4026719d=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Final Q3 GDP<\/a> was +4.4%Consumer spending (PCE):+2.4%GDP final sales (excluding inventories) +1.2% vs +2.6% expectedGDP price index (GDP deflator): vs +2.9% expectedCore PCE (excluding food &amp; energy): +2.7% vs +2.6% expectedBusiness investment (nonresidential fixed investment): 2025 annual GDP at about 2.23%<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">Contributions to GDP in percentage points:<\/p>\n<p>Government -0.9 vs +0.38 priorNet exports +0.08 vs +1.62 priorInventories +0.21 vs -0.12 priorFixed investment +0.45 vs +0.15 priorServices +1.59 vs +1.7 priorGoods -0.01 vs +0.64 prior<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">USD\/JPY was trading at 155.17 just before the release and 2-year yields were trading at 3.46%. The Fed funds futures market was pricing in 58 bps in easing through year end.<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">From the release:<\/p>\n<p>The BEA estimates that this reduction in services provided by the federal government subtracted<br \/>\nabout 1.0 percentage point from real GDP growth in the fourth quarter<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">Of course, economists knew there was a shutdown so that was at least somewhat factored in.<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">Note the inflation numbers here but also note the<a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/news\/us-december-pce-inflation-29-vs-28-expected-20260220\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"article-link\" data-v-4026719d=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"> December PCE report <\/a>was released at the same time so we two readings on inflation.<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">Trump was out just before this release saying that the government shutdown cost &#8216;at least&#8217; 2 points in GDP. That was a hint he&#8217;d seen the number beforehand and that it wasn&#8217;t what he wanted. <\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">Yesterday, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker fell to 3.0% after starting the week at 3.7%. The biggest part of the downgrade was yesterday&#8217;s trade balance number and I would suspect that most economists didn&#8217;t have that in their model. So in light of that and Trump&#8217;s comments, I see risks to the downside. Moreover, four major economic forecast firms &#8212; Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Barclays &#8212; all have had in the 1.5-1.7% range so maybe this wasn&#8217;t such a big surprise.<\/p>\n<p>US GDP q\/q annualized<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Final Q3 GDP was +4.4%Consumer spending (PCE):+2.4%GDP final sales (excluding inventories) +1.2% vs +2.6% expectedGDP price index (GDP&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":436638,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[84,1294,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-436637","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/436637","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=436637"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/436637\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/436638"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=436637"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=436637"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=436637"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}