{"id":439194,"date":"2026-02-22T06:35:15","date_gmt":"2026-02-22T06:35:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/439194\/"},"modified":"2026-02-22T06:35:15","modified_gmt":"2026-02-22T06:35:15","slug":"in-gorton-and-denton-the-muslim-vote-is-fracturing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/439194\/","title":{"rendered":"In Gorton and Denton, the Muslim vote is fracturing"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\n Shoppers at Longsight Outdoor Market in Greater Manchester, part of the Gorton and Denton constituency, ahead of the 26 February by-election. Photo by Oli SCARFF \/ AFP via Getty Images<\/p>\n

\u201cI feel like Labour used to be for the working class\u2026 that\u2019s how they got their votes this time around. But when they actually came in they were not for the working class, they were more for the middle class.\u201d<\/p>\n

This bitter assessment is one the government has grown accustomed to hearing over the past 18 months \u2013 I heard much the same<\/a> barely 100 days into Keir Starmer\u2019s premiership. Yet it carries particular weight here, coming from a focus group of Muslim voters in Denton just a week before a knife-edge by-election.<\/p>\n

Gorton and Denton has been dubbed<\/a> a \u201cFrankenstein\u2019s monster constituency.\u201d Created in 2024 by the boundary commission from parts of three separate Manchester constituencies, it is a patchwork: the four Manchester wards are, on average, 40 per cent Muslim and nearly 60 per cent non-white, while the three Tameside wards of Denton are 83 per cent white and 86 per cent British-born. Labour won the seat decisively in 2024, taking over 50 per cent of the vote with a 13,000-strong majority. But as the by-election on 26 February approaches, it has morphed into a three-way contest between Labour, Reform UK and the Green Party.<\/p>\n

The seat\u2019s demographics \u2013 two halves that differ sharply in age, class, income, and ethnic composition \u2013 make it notoriously difficult to predict, with pollsters largely conceding it is impossible to call. One thing, however, is clear: the substantial population of Muslim voters from Pakistani and Bangladeshi backgrounds is a key electoral force. As Ben Walker has noted<\/a>, this group comprises roughly a quarter of the constituency\u2019s population, though a smaller share of its electorate.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

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On a Wednesday evening, eight days before the by-election, seven voters joined a More In Common focus group on Zoom. They spanned a range of ages, professions, and life experiences: a joiner, a cardiologist and a woman with a small child playing in the background. All were Muslim, all had voted Labour in 2024, and all were unambiguous \u2013 albeit with varying intensity \u2013 that they would not be supporting Labour this time.<\/p>\n

Focus groups should never be mistaken for polls. Yet the intensity of feeling among participants about the Prime Minister was striking. While most named the cost of living crisis and the NHS as their top concerns, the war in Gaza ranked a close second. Labour\u2019s initial support for Israel following the 7 October attacks was dismissed as \u201cpandering to the popular thinking\u201d \u2013 an opportunistic bid for votes. Even the party\u2019s gradual shift over the next two years, culminating in recognition of a Palestinian state in September 2025, earned no credit. \u201cIt took too long for him to recognise Palestine, so that was upsetting,\u201d said one participant, particularly aggrieved that Starmer, a former human rights lawyer, had not acted more decisively in the face of Gaza\u2019s death toll.<\/p>\n

The government\u2019s decision to proscribe Palestine Action under terrorist legislation in July 2025 \u2013 a ban the High Court of Justice ruled unlawful this month \u2013 was also flagged as \u201cshocking,\u201d seen as emblematic of Starmer\u2019s lack of judgement. \u201cIf you couldn\u2019t get that right when it\u2019s blatantly obvious and glaring you in the face, it kind of speaks a lot for how you do everything else.\u201d<\/p>\n

It is no revelation that Labour\u2019s handling of the Gaza conflict has inflicted deep, perhaps irreparable, damage on its relationship with Britain\u2019s Muslim community \u2013 just ask the Labour candidates who lost to pro-Gaza independents in 2024. Yet the dynamics of the Gorton and Denton by-election are likely to sharpen focus. There is a genuine risk of Reform winning the seat, with a candidate who has argued that Englishness is an ethnicity reserved for those who can \u201ctrace their roots back over generations,\u201d and that UK-born ethnic minorities cannot necessarily count themselves as \u201cBritish\u201d.<\/p>\n

The government\u2019s strategy \u2013 at least under Starmer\u2019s recently departed chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney \u2013 has rested on the assumption that, however disillusioned former voters might be, they would \u201chold their noses\u201d and back Labour rather than risk a Reform victory. Gorton and Denton is a test of that assumption: would disillusioned Muslim voters turn out for Labour to keep Reform at bay? The answer, for the most part, was no.<\/p>\n

Partly, this reflects expectations: the debate over whether Labour or the Greens were best placed to block Reform seemed already settled for this cohort. \u201cI think it\u2019s a two-horse race, this by-election between Reform and Green,\u201d one participant observed. There was cautious optimism for the Greens \u2013 Zack Polanski in particular was viewed positively. Participants highlighted the party\u2019s stance on Gaza and its Muslim co-deputy leader, Mothin Ali, and more broadly saw it as \u201cinclusive\u201d toward ethnic minorities. Curiously, no one mentioned the environment, and the Green Party\u2019s positions on trans rights or defence \u2013 areas other parties perceive as vulnerabilities for Polanski \u2013 appeared to concern no one.<\/p>\n

But the reluctance to embrace tactical voting went beyond questions of which choice would actually be most strategic. Participants expressed genuine concern about Reform and the rise of overt racism they felt had become more visible in their communities in recent years: \u201cI feel like people can openly be racist now. They\u2019re not actually scared of anything. They\u2019re just so open about it and they know there\u2019s no consequences to it.\u201d They pointed to a growing climate of division, citing Tommy Robinson\u2019s \u201cUnite The Kingdom\u201d rally and the skewed portrayal of news stories on social media with an anti-Muslim bias.<\/p>\n

This is exactly the sentiment Starmer sought to tap into during his conference speech in September, warning of the dangerous rhetoric propagated by Reform. Yet, troublingly for Labour, participants held the Prime Minister as equally culpable for fostering a culture of hostility.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt just feels very different out there and I don\u2019t like it. And I blame it on Keir,\u201d said one woman, before conceding, \u201cI feel like a lot of it is Reform as well.\u201d A man accused Starmer of having \u201clet Reform in through the back door basically,\u201d adding: \u201cI think that the tide turned during Brexit, that\u2019s when people started getting a bit more racist\u2026 And Labour\u2019s come in, they\u2019ve not done anything about it. They\u2019ve just let Reform come through and make up a lot of lies.\u201d<\/p>\n

There were, however, glimmers of hope for the government. The scrapping of the two-child benefit cap had resonated with voters, as had the introduction of new breakfast clubs. Labour strategists might also take comfort from the anxieties surrounding what a Reform government would mean for the NHS and the future of universal healthcare \u2013 a key attack line against Nigel Farage.<\/p>\n

But overall, the mood was one of despondency ahead of Thursday\u2019s by-election. As Luke Tryl, executive director of More In Common and organiser of the focus group, summarised: \u201cThis group of Muslim voters in Gorton and Denton were normally reliable Labour voters, but more than anything else the fact that Keir Starmer and his government did not seem to have their back against what they saw as a rising tide of racism meant they were now looking elsewhere.\u201d<\/p>\n

Gorton and Denton has become a battleground for narratives about who voters dislike most. The focus group revealed a level of disillusionment with the government that even the threat of a party campaigning on deportations could not offset. Labour\u2019s attempts to win back Muslim voters and make its case to the community were, for now, failing to resonate.<\/p>\n

In one moment of inadvertent comedy, a man noted the renewed efforts of Labour canvassers: \u201cThey\u2019re sending people into mosques lately.\u201d A woman quipped, quick as a flash: \u201cThey must be desperate if they\u2019re doing that.\u201d<\/p>\n

[Further reading: Young people can\u2019t get jobs. Does Labour care?<\/a>]<\/p>\n

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