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<\/p>\nSince my youth, I\u2019ve loved sci-fi authors, ranging from Isaac Asimov and Philip K Dick to William Gibson, whose 1984 Neuromancer features a dangerous super-AI (artificial intelligence).<\/p>\n
Armed with a background in maths, computing and finance, I started investing two years after Gibson\u2019s cyberpunk masterpiece was published. That\u2019s why I\u2019m very interested in using AI to improve investment returns.<\/p>\n
So, what happened when I asked a leading AI to build the perfect FTSE 100 share portfolio?<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Image source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
Human experience versus AI<\/p>\n
Google Gemini AI recommended balancing high-yielding financials, defensive healthcare giants, and growth-oriented stocks. It offered nine shares \u2014 three from each group \u2014 including four held in my family portfolio. What yearly returns might this portfolio produce?<\/p>\n
Gemini predicted 10% to 14%. However, the Footsie\u2019s long-term average is 7%. Thus, I warned Gemini that its returns exceeded historical results.<\/p>\n
The fun begins<\/p>\n
Agentic AIs often flatter and agree with users. The AI complimented my \u201cvery sharp observation\u201c, before admitting that returns could fall to -5% to -10% in a downside scenario. I reiterated that these returns were too optimistic, given the FTSE 100<\/a>\u2018s surge since 2022.<\/p>\n Again, Gemini agreed, saying that \u201cmy scepticism was well-founded\u201c. It is so eager to please, but doesn\u2019t remember previous questions, which makes for crazy conversations.<\/p>\n I cut to the chase: \u201cI doubt your ability to pick stocks well enough to beat the market. Convince me otherwise.\u201d After admitting that stock-picking is tough, Gemini still rated its focused portfolio over indexing, but provided little ammunition to support this claim.<\/p>\n For fun, I asked, \u201cHow much of your response comes from articles written by Cliff D\u2019Arcy of The Motley Fool?\u201d After yet more praise, Gemini explained that my work \u201cis a prominent part of UK value investing\u201c, listing phrases I frequently use.<\/p>\n Finally, I said, \u201cI am Cliff D\u2019Arcy. Comment on this and the fact that AIs make repeated mistakes and hallucinations\u201d.<\/p>\n Gemini: \u201cIt is a pleasure to engage with you, Cliff\u201d. It applauded my \u201cextensive tenure, track record and contextual intuition\u201d before providing a structured summary for my next column as a \u2018human expert\u2019. Cheeky!<\/p>\n Gemini\u2019s take-aways:<\/p>\n 1. AI is a mirror, not a map \u2014 the stocks picked are widely discussed; Gemini doesn\u2019t \u2018discover\u2019 them.<\/p>\n 2. Yield is not a shield \u2014 share-price falls counteract high dividends<\/a>.<\/p>\n 3. Expertise wins \u2014 navigating financial markets requires qualitative judgment (ideally from lived experience, not \u2018statistical parroting\u2019).<\/p>\n We agree<\/p>\n