Runcorn and Helsby byelection<\/a> almost a year ago by just six votes \u2013 a victory here would suggest it is sustaining momentum. Reform said it expected at least 1,000 activists to get out the vote \u2013 particularly people who don\u2019t usually vote, who have been key to delivering other byelection victories.<\/p>\nGoodwin is a divisive, hyper-online candidate who has family roots in Manchester but spent most of his adult years in the south-east of England. He is arguably more of a Marmite character than Sarah Pochin, who ran in Runcorn, despite her share of controversies since she was elected.<\/p>\n
A Reform victory would also put paid to the argument advanced by Labour strategists that progressives will unite to defeat Reform when they know how to vote tactically.<\/p>\n
There would be vicious recriminations between Labour and the Greens. The latter may well be able to argue if they come second that it was Labour who split the progressive vote and stopped a Green victory. Should Labour come third, it is hard to see how Starmer survives much longer as prime minister when he cannot unite progressives against candidates like Goodwin.<\/p>\n
Reform\u2019s Matt Goodwin at a hustings at St Peter\u2019s Church in Levenshulme. Photograph: Mark Waugh\/The Guardian2. Greens win <\/p>\n
A Green victory might be the most catastrophic result for Starmer\u2019s leadership and would show the Greens are a serious progressive force, not a protest vote.<\/p>\n
It would also show that Labour is not the automatic beneficiary of an anti-Reform alliance and would make MPs standing in urban seats fearful of the Green threat, which is likely to be compounded by local election results in London.<\/p>\n
Polls and betting markets repeatedly put the Greens ahead and a win would suggest Hannah Spencer\u2019s enthusiastic campaign means they could capitalise on an increase in disillusioned progressive voters.<\/p>\n
The Green coalition could pull in former Labour voters who want to deliver Starmer a kicking, many but not all of them from the area\u2019s large Muslim community, as well as students and young professionals in Levenshulme.<\/p>\n
Labour attacks on the Greens have been vicious, both on its drug policy, claiming the party is willing to sell legalised drugs to teenagers, and on its defence policy, referring to the party as \u201cPutin\u2019s useful idiots\u201d.<\/p>\n
The Greens have repeatedly turned out large swathes of activists and have had to work the seat from a base of zero. The party developed a canvassing app and up to 1,000 activists routinely turn up on weekends.<\/p>\n
Handwritten letters have gone out to every voter in the constituency, completed by 300 volunteers. Activists have campaigned outside mosques during prayer times, focusing on Labour\u2019s record on Gaza, and have distributed leaflets in several languages.<\/p>\n
Aspects of the Greens\u2019 campaign have raised eyebrows, including using pictures of Starmer meeting the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, in adverts aimed at the area\u2019s Muslim community.<\/p>\n
The strength of the Green campaign has allowed the party to argue it is Labour that risks splitting the vote and letting in the Reform candidate. If Labour is pushed into third place, there would be recriminations for Starmer. But if Reform wins and the Greens come second, that would cause angst for the progressive left about which party is the best challenger to the right.<\/p>\n
Hannah Spencer, the Green party\u2019s candidate, campaigns with supporters in Manchester. Photograph: Andy Bruce\/Reuters3. Labour win<\/p>\n
Labour activists have been unusually confident about their prospects of holding the seat since the start of the campaign. Campaigners normally undersell when they are the incumbents \u2013 even parties that believe they can win manage expectations and describe how close the race is.<\/p>\n
MPs and campaigners who have visited Gorton and Denton have all expressed surprise at how well the Labour vote is holding up. Starmer visited the seat this week. His presence is not a vote-winning tactic \u2013 far from it \u2013 so the visit was probably because of rising confidence that Labour can win.<\/p>\n
Labour has managed to energise its activist base, despite polling showing a broad dissatisfaction with the government. The ban on Burnham\u2019s candidacy was said by some to be likely to dissuade activists, but that hasn\u2019t happened \u2013 Labour has had the most activists in its history register to campaign to get the vote out on Thursday.<\/p>\n
Starmer allies who want the prime minister to take a more aggressively progressive position have been happy with how Starmer has drawn dividing lines with Reform, attacking Goodwin\u2019s comments on whether people from minority ethnic backgrounds can be truly British.<\/p>\n
One senior Labour source said it was an \u201celectoral training ground for a new approach of making values-led arguments for a diverse and tolerant society\u201d.<\/p>\n
There are some on the left of the party who will be uncomfortable with how hard Labour has targeted the Greens \u2013 particularly on drugs policy.<\/p>\n
Labour knows where its voters live and on polling day relentlessly targets them to get them out to vote \u2013 knocking on the same doors four or five times until they are certain its supporters have made it to the polling stations. If Labour wins, it will be this campaigning and people power that are likely to have been key.<\/p>\n
If Angeliki Stogia<\/a> wins, Starmer is likely to breathe a sigh of relief that Labour is holding its progressive coalition together in the face of a Reform threat, and that Reform\u2019s momentum may have peaked. The prime minister would also swerve the possibility of another threat to his leadership.<\/p>\nThat would probably be an overly optimistic assessment. Indeed, if the election has barely 1,000 votes between the top three parties, then each would be wise not to overanalyse the results \u2013 but that won\u2019t stop anyone.<\/p>\n
Angeliki Stogia. Labour activists have been unusually confident about their prospects of holding the seat. Photograph: Christopher Thomond\/The Guardian<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"1. Reform UK win A win for Reform UK\u2019s candidate, Matt Goodwin, would be the biggest sign yet…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":446318,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[49,50,51,47,52,48],"class_list":["post-446317","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-headlines","tag-headlines","tag-news","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-topnews","tag-topstories"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/446317","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=446317"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/446317\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/446318"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=446317"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=446317"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=446317"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}