{"id":454953,"date":"2026-03-03T07:48:07","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T07:48:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/454953\/"},"modified":"2026-03-03T07:48:07","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T07:48:07","slug":"ecb-chief-economist-lane-warns-of-inflation-spike-from-us-iran-conflict","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/454953\/","title":{"rendered":"ECB chief economist Lane warns of inflation spike from US-Iran conflict"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Prolonged conflict could lead to a &#8220;substantial spike&#8221; in inflationAt the same time, it could also cause a &#8220;sharp drop in output&#8221; in the euro areaDirectionally, a jump in energy prices puts upward pressure on inflation especially in the near-termThe magnitude of the shock heavily depends on &#8220;the breadth and duration of the conflict&#8221;But for the time being, &#8220;I think where we are now is OK&#8221; (when asked about policy stance)Barring any major shocks, euro area economy is &#8220;growing in the neighbourhood of its potential&#8221;Even when taking out any energy price volatility, inflation is still running above the 2% medium-term target&#8221;This is not an environment where I see an argument in favour of taking a bit of risk on inflation&#8221;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/529b22dc-2707-48f8-b19c-510dee176e30\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" class=\"article-link\" data-v-4026719d=\"\">Full transcript<\/a> (may be gated)<\/p>\n<p class=\"text-align-justify\" data-v-4026719d=\"\">His comments aren&#8217;t anything new I would say. Even when taking into account his views on the US-Iran conflict, the bottom line is that the ECB is rather comfortable on the sidelines for the time being. And it would take a rather massive and prolonged shock impact to get them to think otherwise in terms of policy setting.<\/p>\n<p class=\"text-align-justify\" data-v-4026719d=\"\">As things stand, they are pausing on rate cuts and markets are concurring. Lane acknowledges that pricing and once again reaffirms that it is a fair assumption; all else being equal. And if there are short-term pressures to higher inflation as a result from the US-Iran conflict, one can also argue that the ECB will even more want to stick to where they are now.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Prolonged conflict could lead to a &#8220;substantial spike&#8221; in inflationAt the same time, it could also cause a&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":454954,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[84,1294,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-454953","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/454953","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=454953"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/454953\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/454954"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=454953"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=454953"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=454953"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}