In Europe and the UK these swings tend to be driven by the jet stream<\/a>, a fast-moving body of air higher up in the atmosphere. This winter, it was sat across the south of the UK and moved fast, blowing wet and windy weather from the northern Atlantic. <\/p>\n Weather often moves in \u201csystems\u201d \u2013 large rotating masses of similar air \u2013 and these systems effectively bump into one another like billiard balls. This winter, however, a large block of settled weather stayed in place across Europe. This acted like a barrier, causing the wet weather carried by the jet stream to slow down<\/a> across the UK. <\/p>\n Will the UK whiplash back into drought?<\/p>\n Predicting what the UK\u2019s summer will look like months in advance is challenging. Seasonal forecasting<\/a> does exist, but it can\u2019t tell us if it will rain on a particular day in July. What it can do is estimate the likelihood of certain weather trends \u2013 such as hotter or drier conditions \u2013 developing over the course of a season.<\/p>\n These forecasts are getting better. Under certain conditions, by May, scientists can now anticipate an increased risk of heat extremes<\/a> in Europe that summer. Other research suggests that combined heat and drought extremes can sometimes be forecast one to two months ahead<\/a>.<\/p>\n The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts just released its forecast for June 2026, showing how summer temperatures might deviate from the long-term average across Europe. Warmer tones suggest a higher chance of above-average temperatures. Early indications for summer 2026<\/a> suggest that the UK will probably experience slightly drier than average conditions in early summer, with an added risk of extreme heat. That does not make a hot, dry summer inevitable. But it would be consistent with climate whiplash.<\/p>\n More broadly, climate projections suggest that the UK and much of Europe are likely to experience more of these \u201cflipflop\u201d weather patterns<\/a> \u2013 persistent dry spells followed by months of downpours, or vice versa \u2013 as the world warms. Although a wet winter does not automatically lead to a dry summer, the jet stream is a key driver in all of our weather throughout the year.<\/p>\n Why this matters<\/p>\n Policy is still largely designed around averages, yet the weather is behaving less and less like an average year. If the UK is heading for an era of sharper swings between flood and drought, policymaking and adaptation systems will need to catch up.<\/p>\n Take housing and insurance, for example. Flood Re, the government\u2019s reinsurance scheme<\/a> that keeps flood cover affordable, is only eligible for houses built before January 2009. Since then, more than 100,000 new homes<\/a> have been built-in high-risk flood areas \u2013 homes that may face rising premiums just as extreme rainfall increases. <\/p>\n Read more: In addition, we know that 80% of houses in the UK overheat in the summer<\/a>. Many properties will be doubly vulnerable: too wet in winter, too hot in summer.<\/p>\n Climate whiplash also threatens food security<\/a>. Fields can be waterlogged when planting yet too dry and dusty as crops approach harvest, lowering the yields that are produced. Transport networks are similarly exposed: some rail lines were submerged during winter floods<\/a>, only a few months after a summer drought caused lines nearby to buckle as the underlying soil dried up<\/a>.<\/p>\n These events are signs of systems \u2013 from insurance to infrastructure \u2013 being tested by weather swinging between extremes harder and faster than ever. <\/p>\n The UK prepares for these risks through a process set out by the 2008 Climate Change Act, which requires regular assessments of how climate change will affect the country. Every five years the UK\u2019s independent Climate Change Committee produces a risk assessment<\/a> which the government must respond to.<\/p>\n The next assessment, due later in 2026, will land after a year of extremes. If the UK is indeed entering its whiplash era, the question is whether adaptation plans will keep up.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"After a dry 2025 with the UK\u2019s warmest summer on record, winter 2026 delivered something very different: rain…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":455674,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[59,57,58,50,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-455673","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-united-kingdom","tag-gb","tag-great-britain","tag-greatbritain","tag-news","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/455673","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=455673"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/455673\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/455674"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=455673"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=455673"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=455673"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"Coloured](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/file-20260303-69-5kbixc.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n
\n ECMWF<\/a>, CC BY-SA<\/a><\/p>\n
\n How the UK is keeping flood insurance affordable \u2013 until 2039<\/a><\/p>\n