\u2014 Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) March 3, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n Ruth Curtice, chief executive at the Resolution Foundation, says:<\/p>\n double quotation mark\u201cThe immediate economic outlook for Britain is highly uncertain, with yesterday\u2019s forecasts already looking out of date, while the living standards picture for the rest of the Parliament is very lopsided.<\/p>\n \u201cThis coming year is set to be a decent one for living standards, and a bumper one for poorer families, as wages and benefit support rise above the level of inflation. But a fresh energy price shock risks puncturing this good news.<\/p>\n The agenda<\/p>\n 9am GMT: Resolution Foundation event on the spring forecast<\/p>\n 9.00am GMT: eurozone services PMI for February<\/p>\n 9.30am GMT: UK services PMI for February<\/p>\n 10am GMT: Eurozone unemployment report for January<\/p>\n 2.45pm GMT: US services PMI for February<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a002.25 EST<\/p>\n Key events<\/p>\n Show key events only<\/p>\n Please turn on JavaScript to use this feature<\/p>\n UK engineering firm John Wood Group has been fined more than \u00a312m for publishing The Financial Conduct Authority has ruled that John Wood\u2019s accounting judgements were \u201cinappropriately influenced\u201d by its desire to maintain previously stated financial results, after some projects performed poorly.<\/p>\n This caused the Aberdeen-based company to publish inaccurate information in its full-year 2022 and 2023 financial results and its half-year 2024 results, the FCA says.<\/p>\n John Wood is now being taken over by Sidara, in a deal that could complete on March 10.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n US consumers may already be feeling the impact of the Iran war:<\/p>\n Share<\/a>IFS: UK government may face demands for energy support IFS director Helen Miller, presenting the thinktank\u2019s take on yesterday\u2019s Spring forecast, warns that if the Middle East conflict continues, the government will \u201cundoubtedly\u201d face a clamour to protect households from the worst of any resulting jump in energy bills – which it should think twice about caving in to.<\/p>\n \u201cWe have become accustomed in recent times to governments propping up household incomes when bad shocks come along,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n double quotation mark\u201cWhile there can obviously be benefits to this, protecting household incomes in this way is not costless. This kind of government support is a key reason that debt has been rising in recent years. And, partly because bad shocks keep coming along, and partly because we are aiming only to stabilise debt in the better times, debt keeps rising over time. That can\u2019t go on for ever.\u201d<\/p>\n Aside from highlighting the consequences of an extended conflict, Miller praised Rachel Reeves for making Tuesday\u2019s statement such a non-event.<\/p>\n But Miller reiterated that to meet her self-imposed fiscal rules by the end of the parliament, the chancellor has pencilled in very tight spending plans in the run-up to the next general election.<\/p>\n Before then, Miller said, \u201cthe government will have to decide whether they do in fact think they have the \u2018right plan\u2019 or whether they want to raise more taxes so that they can top up spending plans further.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Markets rally on report of Iran’s “secret outreach” to end conflict<\/p>\n European stock markets have suddenly turned higher, and the US dollar is weakening, following a report that Iranian operatives have made an offer to discuss terms for ending the war.<\/p>\n The New York Times is reporting<\/a> that a day after the attacks began, operatives from Iran\u2019s Ministry of Intelligence reached out indirectly to the C.I.A. with an offer to discuss terms for ending the conflict.<\/p>\n Officials briefed on the outreach are, the NYT says, \u201cskeptical \u2014 at least in the short term \u2014 that either the Trump administration or Iran is really ready for an offramp\u201d.<\/p>\n The NYT says:<\/p>\n double quotation markThe offer, which was made through another country\u2019s spy agency, raises critical questions about whether any Iranian officials could put into place a cease-fire agreement with the Tehran government in chaos as its leaders are methodically picked off by Israeli strikes.<\/p>\n The offer was described on the condition of anonymity to The New York Times by Middle Eastern officials and officials from a Western country.<\/p>\n The report <\/a>has driven the UK\u2019s FTSE 100 share index up by 60 points, or 0.56%, with mining companies and airlines now leading the risers.<\/p>\n The pan-European Stoxx 600 share index is up 1.2%, and Wall Street futures are higher too.<\/p>\n The US dollar, which has been strengthening as investors have sought out a safe haven asset, is now down 0.25% today.<\/p>\n Oil has slipped back too, with Brent crude now up just 1.5% at $82.67 a barrel.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a005.30 EST<\/p>\n Goldman Sachs raise oil price forecasts<\/p>\n Goldman Sachs have hiked their forecast for the oil price in the second quarter of this year, in light of the Middle East conflict.<\/p>\n The bank has raised its second-quarter 2026 average price forecast for Brent crude \u200boil by $10 to $76 per barrel and for US crude (WTI) by $9 \u200cto $71, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n [Brent crude is currently trading at just over $84\/barrel, up from around $71\/barrel a week ago]<\/p>\n In a research note, Goldman have also published estimates of how much the oil price might rise, if the strait of Hormuz is closed:<\/p>\n They estimate:<\/a><\/p>\n $15 for a full one-month closure if there are no offsets (e.g., utilization of spare pipeline capacity, releases of strategic petroleum reserves)<\/p>\n $12 in the event of a full one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity, 4 million barrels per day (mb\/d), is used<\/p>\n $10 for a full one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used and global strategic petroleum reserves are released for one month at a 2 mb\/d pace<\/p>\n $4 for a partial, one-month closure of 50% if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used<\/p>\n $1 for a partial, one-month closure of 25% if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a005.02 EST<\/p>\n UK service sector firms keeping cutting jobs as costs rise<\/p>\n UK service sector companies continued to raise their prices, and cut staff numbers, last month \u2013 even before they\u2019re hit by the energy shock.<\/p>\n The latest poll of purchasing managers at services firms has found that staffing numbers decreased for the seventeenth successive months in February, and that there was \u201canother robust uplift in prices charged\u201d.<\/p>\n Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, says:<\/p>\n double quotation mark\u201cFebruary data pointed to a solid reduction in employment numbers, despite a sustained recovery in business activity. Job losses reflected ongoing efforts to focus on boosting productivity and mitigate sharply rising input costs.<\/p>\n Higher payroll costs were widely cited as leading to a strong pace of overall input cost inflation. Greater food prices and technology costs were also reported in February. This contributed to another robust increase in prices charged by service providers, with the pace of inflation little-changed from January\u2019s five-month high.\u201d<\/p>\n On the upside, though, service providers recorded a further upturn in business activity during the month.<\/p>\n The S&P Global UK Services Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index (PMI) fell slightly to 53.9 last month from January\u2019s five-month high of 54.0, but still a level suggesting the economy was expanding.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Although Rachel Reeves<\/a> is (or possibly was) doing better against her fiscal rules, headroom is still relatively low in historic terms\u2026<\/p>\n The Chancellor\u2019s headroom remains below most of her predecessors.<\/p>\n This level of headroom still leave the public finances vulnerable to even historically average levels of economic volatility. pic.twitter.com\/spJDv3bSim<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Resolution Foundation (@resfoundation) March 4, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n There were three sources of bad news in yesterday\u2019s assessment of the UK economy from the Office of Budget Responsibility, reports Resolution Foundation\u2019s research director James Smith.<\/p>\n 1) Growth: the latest forecasts are, once again, weaker than those presented in November. For the decade to 2028, the OBR is forecasting the weakest growth in a century, if you ignore the Covid-19 pandemic and the second world war<\/p>\n 2) Unemployment: the new projections show unemployment rising over 5.3%, which would be the highest in over a decade. Younger people are being hit hardest by this.<\/p>\n 3) Migration: Net migration is coming in weaker than expected in November.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>EU hits back at Trump’s threat against Spanish trade The EU has hit back at Donald Trump\u2019s threats to halt all trade with Spain over its decision not to allow the US use its military bases for Iran bombing missions.<\/p>\n The EU said it expected the US president to \u201chonour\u201d its bloc-wide tariff deal concluded last year but hinted at the possibility of retaliatory measures if Trump did isolate Spain in a revenge move.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Commission will ensure that the interests of the European Union are fully protected. We stand in full solidarity with all Member States and all its citizens and, through our common trade policy, stand ready to act if necessary to safeguard EU interests,\u201d said trade spokesperson Olof Gill, adding:<\/p>\n double quotation mark\u201cTrade between the European Union and the United States is deeply integrated and mutually beneficial.<\/p>\n \u201cSafeguarding this relationship, particularly at a time of global disruption, is more important than ever and clearly in the interest of both sides.<\/p>\n \u201cThe EU and the United States concluded a major trade deal last year. The European Commission expects the United States to fully honour the commitments\u201d undertaken in the joint statement of last August.<\/p>\n The EU is continuing to honour its part of that deal, allow many US goods into the bloc tariff free, even though the US supreme court ruled Trump\u2019s 15% tariffs on EU goods were illegal.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n
inaccurate information in its financial results.<\/p>\n![\"Heather](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/1772622188_507_Heather_Stewart,_L.png\")
Heather Stewart<\/p>\n![\"Lisa](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Lisa-OCarroll-byline-004.jpg\")
Lisa O\u2019Carroll<\/p>\n