The Gulf Arabs are dismayed by what has happened. <\/p>\n
They had no great fondness for the Islamic Republic regime – but they had reached an uneasy accommodation with it before this conflict began. <\/p>\n
Now they have watched in horror as the US has given this war its best shot and failed to bring down the Iranian regime, instead leaving it wounded and angry, lashing out at its neighbours on this side of the Gulf with drones and missiles.<\/p>\n
To the frustration of Washington and US Central Command (Centcom), Iran is now in a far stronger position strategically than it was a month ago, since it has been able to assert de facto control over the crucial Strait of Hormuz. <\/p>\n
This gives Tehran enormous leverage over the global energy market, knowing that the international pressure on US President Donald Trump to end this war will narrow his options.<\/p>\n
Ideally, the Gulf states would like things to go back to how they were a month ago, but too much has happened and Iran is now in no mood to back down.<\/p>\n
Trump’s options may be about to multiply with the arrival of around 5,000 US Marines in the region, along with paratroopers from the US 82nd Airborne Division – but there are risks here, too. <\/p>\n
There are a number of locations they could be deployed to: from Iran’s oil export terminal at Kharg Island, to Iran’s coast in Hormuzgan province, to the Bab El Mandeb Strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea. <\/p>\n
Or they could be just to exert more bargaining pressure on Tehran. <\/p>\n
But any ground operation carries a greater chance of US casualties – deeply unpopular at home – and risks drawing the US deeper into a conflict many are calling “a war of choice”.<\/p>\n
The continued survival of the Islamic Republic regime has emboldened its members and its demands. It believes it has both time and geography on its side. <\/p>\n
The more the White House tells the world that Iran is desperate for a deal, the less inclined Iran is to make one.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Gulf Arabs are dismayed by what has happened. They had no great fondness for the Islamic Republic…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":495872,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[49,50,51,47,52,48],"class_list":{"0":"post-495871","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-headlines","8":"tag-headlines","9":"tag-news","10":"tag-top-news","11":"tag-top-stories","12":"tag-topnews","13":"tag-topstories"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/495871","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=495871"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/495871\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/495872"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=495871"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=495871"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=495871"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}