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Aluminium prices hit four-year highs after Iranian attacks on smelters<\/p>\n
Aluminium prices have surged to four-year highs after Iranian airstrikes on two major Middle East producers over the weekend raised fears of a supply shock.<\/p>\n
Benchmark aluminium on the London Metal Exchange rose nearly 5% to $3,453 a tonne, and touched $3,492 earlier today. This compares with an all-time high of $4,073.50 a tonne in March 2022, after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, a top producer of the metal.<\/p>\n
Aluminium is widely used in transport, packaging and construction. The US-Israeli war on Iran and resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz have already restricted shipments of aluminium to the United States, Europe and elsewhere.<\/p>\n
A worker bends a piece of aluminium with a machine on the production floor of the General Stamping & Metalworks building in South Bend, Indiana, US, 23 March. Photograph: Jim Vondruska\/Reuters<\/p>\n
Aluminium Bahrain, which runs the world\u2019s largest single-site smelter, said it was assessing the damage from the Iranian strikes.<\/p>\n
Abu Dhabi-based Emirates Global Aluminium, owned by two sovereign wealth funds of the United Arab Emirates, said its site sustained \u201csignificant damage\u201d.<\/p>\n
Analysts at Britannia Global Markets said:<\/p>\n
double quotation markIran\u2019s strikes on Middle Eastern aluminium plants are threatening to send a fragile market into crisis, raising the prospect of record prices.<\/p>\n
The conflict\u2019s impact is being amplified because constraints on production elsewhere have eroded global inventories, leaving the market with little buffer against shocks.<\/p>\n
Share<\/a>Easter bank holiday expected to be UK\u2019s busiest on roads in four years<\/p>\n The four-day bank holiday weekend is expected to be the busiest Easter on the roads in four years, despite a surge in fuel prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East<\/a>.<\/p>\n Drivers are planning nearly 21m leisure journeys between Thursday and Easter<\/a> Monday, according to a study by the RAC and the traffic analytics specialists Inrix.<\/p>\n With more than 1m additional trips planned compared with last year, this Easter is set to be the busiest on the roads since 2022, which was the first full getaway after the Covid lockdowns ended. And signs that the weather could warm up in time for the weekend mean the number of ad hoc journeys could rise, the RAC said.<\/p>\n The AA predicted that traffic during the Easter period would peak on Thursday, when many schools break up. Just over half of people expect to travel short distances of under 50 miles. About one in five plan to visit friends and family, one in 10 want to head outdoors for walking or cycling, and 5% expect to visit DIY stores or garden centres.<\/p>\n Lee Morley, an AA expert patrol, said:<\/p>\n double quotation markAfter what feels like a very long, wet winter, lots of families are looking forward to the Easter break.<\/p>\n People appear undaunted by the average petrol price rising above 150p a litre<\/a> last Friday, when the Asda boss warned of some temporary shortages.<\/p>\n Filling up a 55-litre family car with diesel this Easter will cost at least \u00a319 more than it did on Good Friday last year, while a tank of petrol will be almost \u00a38 more, with further increases likely, according to the RAC.<\/p>\n Customers buying plants in a garden centre in the UK. The Iran war has led to a surge in pessimism in the UK as half of households are already struggling to afford everyday essentials.<\/p>\n The escalating conflict in the Middle East<\/a>, which has driven the price of oil, gas, crop fertiliser and other raw materials sharply higher, threatens to cause another cost of living shock<\/a>.<\/p>\n The latest Which? consumer insight tracker found that price pressures were forcing half of households, an estimated 14 million, to make at least one adjustment \u2013 dip into savings, sell possessions or borrow money \u2013 to cover the cost of essentials on a daily basis.<\/p>\n Confidence in the future of the UK economy plummeted by 13 points to a score of -56 in the month to 13 March, the lowest level recorded since the end of 2022, the tracker found.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>UK mortgage approvals rise most since November \u2013 Bank of England<\/p>\n British lenders in February approved the most mortgages in three months while consumer credit grew at the fastest rate in almost two years, according to Bank of England data.<\/p>\n Net mortgage approvals for house purchases rose to 62,600 in February from 60,200 in January. It was the highest figure since November, but below the average of 63,500 over the previous six months.<\/p>\n Individuals borrowed a total of \u00a34.8bn through mortgages, up from \u00a34.2bn in January, and above the previous six-month average of \u00a34.5bn.<\/p>\n Going forward, the expectation of higher borrowing costs could dampen demand. With inflation likely to head higher again because of soaring oil and gas prices, the Bank of England is now expected to raise interest rates at least twice this year.<\/p>\n The data also showed that people borrowed \u00a31.9bn in February, up from \u00a31.8bn the month before, in unsecured credit. This included credit card borrowing of \u00a3800m, down from \u00a3900m in January, while other forms of credit such as car dealership finance and personal loans increased to \u00a31.2bn from \u00a3900m.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n European stock markets have risen cautiously this morning, in contrast to the losses in Asia.<\/p>\n The FTSE 100 index has climbed 73 points, or 0.7%, to 10,040, lifted by gains in minding and energy stocks tracking higher commodity prices. Miner Rio Tinto is the biggest riser, up 3.6%, followed by Greece-based Metlen Energy, utility SSE, commodities trader Glencore and British Gas parent Centrica.<\/p>\n Germany\u2019s Dax eked out a 0.2% gain, France\u2019s CAC is up 0.4%, Italy\u2019s FTSE MiB rose 0.3% and Spain\u2019s Ibex climbed 0.9%.<\/p>\n Sterling had dipped 0.2% to $1.3227 against the dollar. The greenback has gained 0.1% against a basket of major currencies.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a005.52 EDT<\/p>\n Eli Lilly pushes for regular NHS drug price rises in return for UK investment<\/p>\n Eli Lilly has put pressure on Britain to agree regular increases in NHS drug prices, in return for the US pharmaceutical company resuming investment in the UK.<\/p>\n Patrik Jonsson, president of Lilly\u2019s international businesses, told the Financial Times<\/a> the company was in talks with UK ministers and was feeling \u201coptimistic\u201d about hammering out an agreement by the summer, under which Britain would pay more for its medicines.<\/p>\n The talks will also explore \u201cinnovative\u201d pricing plans linking payments for anti-obesity medication to whether patients become well enough to return to work as a result of their treatment, he said.<\/p>\n Lilly makes the bestselling weekly jabs Mounjaro and Zepbound for diabetes and weight loss respectively, and is gearing up for the launch of an anti-obesity pill.<\/p>\n Last September, Lilly said its planned London Gateway Lab, part of a \u00a3279m investment, was on hold, \u201cas we are awaiting more clarity around the UK life sciences environment\u201d.<\/p>\n The move came in the same week when US company Merck (also known as MSD) ditched its under-construction \u00a31bn research centre in London and Britain\u2019s biggest pharma firm AstraZeneca put a \u00a3200m investment in Cambridge on hold. Just before, talks between the industry and government about a rebate scheme collapsed.<\/p>\n An injection pen of Zepbound, Eli Lilly’s weight loss drug, in New York City. Photograph: Brendan McDermid\/George Frey\/Reuters<\/p>\n Jonsson said to resume its investment, Lilly wants to see more action from the UK government \u2013 beyond the UK-US pricing deal announced in December.<\/p>\n double quotation markWhat we would need to see is actually those goals turning into really a well-defined action plan with interventions and timelines.<\/p>\n Under pressure from Donald Trump who has complained about high drug prices in the US and lower prices elsewhere, Keir Starmer in December agreed to the first increase in NHS cost-effectiveness thresholds in 27 years, in return for the US dropping threatened tariffs on UK drugmakers.<\/p>\n This raised the price the health service will pay for drugs that give a patient a year of good-quality life from \u00a320,000-\u00a330,000 to \u00a325,000-\u00a335,000.<\/p>\n Ministers from the Department of Health will this week overrule civil service concerns about value for money and push ahead with the increase. An announcement is expected on Tuesday, although the US could still make changes to the agreement.<\/p>\n The government has agreed as part of the deal to double the UK\u2019s spending on all drugs by 2035 from 0.3% to 0.6% of GDP.<\/p>\n Lilly wants the government to phase out its multibillion-pound rebate scheme, under which companies pay back a chunk of their revenues to the NHS. Jonsson said that prices for medicines in the UK had been<\/p>\n double quotation markfar too low for far too long, and even with the current threshold, we are not back to where we started more than 20 years ago. The threshold can\u2019t be written in stone for another three decades.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Brent crude on track for record monthly rise of nearly 60%<\/p>\n Brent crude is on course for a record monthly rise of nearly 60%, exceeding gains it made during the 1990 Gulf War.<\/p>\n The global oil benchmark is currently trading 3.5% higher at $116.051 a barrel \u2013 up 59% so far in March \u2013 while New York light crude rose 2% to $101.6 a barrel.<\/p>\n Yemen\u2019s Houthi rebels launched their first attacks on Israel over the weekend and Israel reported a second attack today, as the US-Israeli war with Iran widened. More US troops have arrived in the Middle East while the Israeli military said today that is it attacking government infrastructure \u201cthroughout Tehran\u201d.<\/p>\n Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysts Vanda Insights, said:<\/p>\n double quotation markThe market has all but discounted the prospect of a negotiated end to the war, Trump\u2019s claims of ongoing \u2018direct and indirect\u2019 talks with Iran notwithstanding, and is bracing for a sharp escalation in military hostilities, which is a bullish signal for crude, with huge uncertainties on the timing and nature of the outcome.<\/p>\n Natural gas prices have also gone up again, amid concerns that supplies will be further disrupted. Dutch month-ahead futures rose 1.6% to just over \u20ac55 a megawatt-hour.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a005.17 EDT<\/p>\n Debenhams lifts 2027 profit forecast as turnaround pays off<\/p>\n British fashion retailer Debenhams has raised its 2027 profit forecast after beating forecasts for last year, as its turnaround strategy is paying off.<\/p>\n The shares rose more than 6% on the news. The well-known brand made a comeback last March after the online retailer Boohoo rebranded as Debenhams. It embarked on measures to cut costs and debt amid fierce competition from low-cost fast fashion rivals such as <\/a>Shein<\/a> and the resale app Vinted.<\/p>\n Debenhams, which owns brands including PrettyLittleThing, Oasis, Warehouse and Karen Millen, forecast annual adjusted core profit of \u00a353m for the year to 28 February, ahead of its previous guidance, driven by a 76% jump in second-half profit. It expects 2027 profits to grow in double digits.<\/p>\n Dan Finley, the chief executive, said:<\/p>\n double quotation markOur multi-year turnaround strategy continues at pace. Our pivot to the stock-lite, capital-lite, highly profitable marketplace is working.<\/p>\n The cost base has been reset, the warehouse consolidation completed, the tech re-platform delivered, the stock base rightsized, most of the onerous costs exited and the brand management teams strengthened. This is significant progress, ahead of our plan, but there is still more to be delivered and we now focus on growth.<\/p>\n Debenhams logo is seen on smartphone in front of a displayed Boohoo logo. Photograph: Dado Ruvi\u0107\/Reuters<\/p>\n The company said all its brands are trading profitably, on an adjusted core profit basis. It raised \u00a340m from shareholders<\/a> in February, more than its initial target of \u00a335m, backed by the Boohoo founder, Mahmud Kamani. It came less than 18 months after the group raised \u00a339m from shareholders as it battled to revive sales.<\/p>\n The retailer has been locked in a drawn-out tussle with its top investor Frassers Group, majority-owned by retail tycoon Mike Ashley, which unsuccessfully tried to block the rebranding and out Kamani from the board.<\/p>\n Wayne Brown, analyst at Panmure Liberum, said:<\/p>\n double quotation markThis is the third upgrade this year and FY26 EBITDA has now been upgraded 51% since the same time last year.<\/p>\n Net debt is not overly stretching and is predicted to fall organically before we even see the sale of non-core assets.<\/p>\n The transformation work done has been huge and the noise (and costs) associated with these is now all but over.<\/p>\n Some may say it is too early to call, but all the signals and green shoots of the new business model are now visible and when investors start to recognise this, the shares will rally very hard.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Global government bonds set for biggest monthly losses in over a year<\/p>\n Government bonds around the world are set for the biggest monthly losses in more than a year, as investors worry about the impact of a prolonged war in the Middle East on inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n Declines in bond prices have pushed their yields (or interest rates) higher, although they eased on Monday.<\/p>\n The two-year US Treasury yield is set for a monthly rise of around 50 basis points, the biggest increase since October 2024. Australia\u2019s three-year yield is also 50bps ahead in March, the most in 17 months. Japan\u2019s two-year government bond yield has risen 12.5bps this month.<\/p>\n Moh Siong Sim, a strategist at the Singapore bank OCBC, told Reuters:<\/p>\n double quotation markNow that the reality is sort of sinking in that perhaps the oil price might stay high for a bit longer, given that it\u2019s hard to see an end to the war anytime soon, the growth impact is starting to become more of a focus.<\/p>\n The buzzword here is stagflation. Initial focus was on inflation. Now the \u2018stag\u2019 bit is moving into the picture, and that\u2019s perhaps explained why short-ended bond yields have come off.<\/p>\n Oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel since the US and Israel began attacking Iran on 28 February. This has raised fears of higher inflation, and led to a dramatic shift in interest rate expectations. The Bank of England is now expected to raise interest rates, rather than cutting them, at least twice this year, as is the European Central Bank.<\/p>\n The US Federal Reserve, which has been under pressure from Donald Trump to cut rates, is forecast to leave them on hold.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Introduction: Brent Crude rises after Trump says he wants to ‘take the oil’ in Iran; Starmer to gather business leaders to discuss emergency measures<\/p>\n Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.<\/p>\n Asian stock markets have fallen while oil prices have climbed further, after Donald Trump said he wants to \u201ctake the oil\u201d in Iran.<\/p>\n Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, has risen a further 2.2% to $115.01 a barrel, up $2.4.<\/p>\n Asian stock markets have declined, with the exception of the Shanghai and Singapore exchanges, which have edged slightly higher. Japan\u2019s Nikkei tumbled 3% and Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng lost 1.1%.<\/p>\n Donald Trump has said his \u201cpreference would be to take the oil\u201d in Iran and that US forces could seize the regime\u2019s export hub on Kharg Island, the Financial Times is reportin<\/a>g, as the US sends thousands of troops to the Middle East.<\/p>\n The US president compares the potential move to Venezuela, where the US intends to control the oil industry \u201cindefinitely\u201d following its ousting of president Nicol\u00e1s Maduro in January.<\/p>\n Trump said in the interview with the FT on Sunday:<\/p>\n double quotation markTo be honest with you, my favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran, but some stupid people back in the US say: \u2018why are you doing that?\u2019 But they\u2019re stupid people.<\/p>\n You can follow the latest news on the Middle East here:<\/p>\n Keir Starmer will convene executives from the energy industry, shipping, banking and insurance at No 10 Downing Street today to discuss emergency measures to contain the continuing crisis from Iran\u2019s blockade of the strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n The roundtable includes leaders from Shell, BP, British Gas parent Centrica and Norway\u2019s Equinor, as well as the insurance giant Lloyd\u2019s of London (the centre of global shipping insurance), banking groups HSBC and Goldman Sachs, and container shipping companies, Denmark\u2019s Maersk and France\u2019s CMA CGM.<\/p>\n No 10 said it is intended to be a constructive meeting about the perilous state of the strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route through which about a fifth of global oil and gas supplies pass, our deputy political editor Jessica Elgot reported. It is likely to inform short and long-term contingency planning amid threats from Iran that it intends to assert sovereignty over the strait, including potentially charging vessels for access once the chokepoint is eventually reopened.<\/p>\n Separately, Rachel Reeves, the UK chancellor, will warn G7 nations they must move faster on clean energy to insulate economies against global price shocks<\/a> from oil and gas as she and the energy secretary Ed Miliband meet G7 finance and energy ministers today.<\/p>\n The Agenda<\/p>\n 9.30am BST: Bank of England mortgage lending and consumer credit<\/p>\n 10am BST: Eurozone economic sentiment and consumer confidence<\/p>\n 1pm BST: Germany inflation for March (preliminary estimate)<\/p>\n
Photograph: Gordon Scammell\/AlamyShare<\/a>Pessimism takes root in UK as shoppers struggle to afford essentials<\/p>\n