1. The special relationship <\/p>\n
In his first year as UK prime minister, Keir Starmer worked hard to cultivate a positive relationship with the US president, gaining a reputation as a supposed Trump whisperer. Just over a year ago, Starmer sat side by side with Trump in the Oval Office, gushingly handing over an \u201cunprecedented\u201d<\/a> second state visit invitation from the king. Trump said the pair got along \u201cfamously\u201d.<\/p>\n That warmth, confected or otherwise, is long in the rear-view mirror. Almost a month and a half since the start of the conflict in Iran, the special relationship is in tatters. Trump has reacted furiously to Starmer\u2019s decision not to support the initial strikes in the Middle East, dismissing him, on several occasions, as \u201cno Winston Churchill<\/a>\u201d, repeatedly mocking the UK\u2019s military capability and accusing Starmer of seeking to \u201cjoin wars after we\u2019ve already won<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n Starmer has quietly but pointedly distanced himself from the US president<\/a> while insisting the relationship between their nations remains strong, stating<\/a>: \u201cSharing intelligence every day to keep our people safe \u2013 that is the special relationship in action. Hanging on to President Trump\u2019s latest words is not the special relationship in action.\u201d<\/p>\n 2. British military readiness<\/p>\n Experts have said the war in Iran has exposed the UK\u2019s lack of military capacity<\/a> and a relative defensive weakness. HMS Dragon only arrived in the eastern Mediterranean three weeks after<\/a> an Iranian-made drone hit the British base of RAF Akrotiri \u2013 and the destroyer has now docked in the eastern Mediterranean<\/a> after problems with its onboard water systems.<\/p>\n Matthew Savill, the director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute thinktank, said the delayed arrival revealed that \u201cone of the military\u2019s big problems is giving the government contingency options\u201d. The former first sea lord Adm Lord West of Spithead has argued that the navy is in its most \u201cparlous state\u201d for 60 years, saying it is too small, underfunded, and unable to protect the nation.<\/p>\n At the end of the cold war, a period during which Britain spent 3.2% of its GDP on defence, the UK had 51 destroyers and frigates. By 2007 the number had halved to 25, and it now stands, according to analysts, at a small ageing fleet of 13. The UK spends 2.4% of GDP on defence, a figure that Labour has promised to lift modestly to 2.5% by April 2027.<\/p>\n At last summer\u2019s Nato summit, Starmer agreed to lift defence budgets by about \u00a330bn, to 3.5% of GDP by 2035. In the spring budget, the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, referred to reaching 3% \u201cfor the next parliament\u201d. A 10-year defence investment plan<\/a> setting out spending on a line-by-line basis has been delayed since last autumn with no date for publication.<\/p>\n Military figures have long argued that successive governments have been reluctant to acknowledge what one former senior figure describes as the \u201crhetoric to reality gap\u201d \u2013 where the UK presents itself as a global military power but lacks the resources to actually be one.<\/p>\n 3. Britain\u2019s exposure to oil shocks <\/p>\n Even if the strait of Hormuz opens immediately, energy analysts are clear that the conflict in the Middle East is likely to mean further cost of living woes<\/a> for the British public, with higher costs at the petrol pumps already being felt. Goldman Sachs has warned<\/a> of fuel prices rising to 2022 levels. Sustained disruption to global gas supplies could lead to the cap on energy bills<\/a> in the UK rising by \u00a3900 to \u00a32,500 a year.<\/p>\n