{"id":521476,"date":"2026-04-09T13:32:09","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T13:32:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/521476\/"},"modified":"2026-04-09T13:32:09","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T13:32:09","slug":"how-have-interest-rate-expectations-changed-after-the-ceasefire-announcement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/521476\/","title":{"rendered":"How have interest rate expectations changed after the ceasefire announcement?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">Rate cuts by year-end<\/p>\n<p>Fed: 7 bps (98% probability of no change at the next meeting)<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">Rate hikes by year-end<\/p>\n<p>RBNZ: 74 bps (70% probability of no change at the next meeting)ECB: 59 bps (60% probability of no change at the next meeting)RBA: 50 bps (60% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)BoJ: 50 bps (51% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)BoE: 40 bps (78% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoC: 35 bps (93% probability of no change at the next meeting)SNB: 21 bps (83% probability of no change at the next meeting)<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">(You can find last week&#8217;s market pricing <a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/centralbank\/how-have-interest-rate-expectations-changed-after-this-weeks-events-20260402\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"article-link\" data-v-4026719d=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">here<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">We can see we got a dovish repricing across the board as inflation worries eased on expectations that the end of the war would bring energy prices back down.<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">The only central bank where rate hike expectations actually increased was the RBNZ. That&#8217;s because the RBNZ released its monetary policy decision the same day Trump announced the ceasefire.<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">The central bank clearly shifted to a hawkish stance as they added a new paragraph in the statement saying that \u201cdecisive and timely increases in the OCR would be required\u201d if core inflation, wage growth and inflation expectations do not remain contained. <\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">Moreover, Governor Breman acknowledged that the committee discussed raising the OCR already at this week&#8217;s meeting although that didn&#8217;t find a strong consensus. She has also added that the neutral rate sits around 3.00% which is 75 bps above the current 2.25% rate, so that&#8217;s why traders increased the expected tightening to 75 bps by year-end. <\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">It goes without saying that everything hinges on US-Iran negotiations now. Iran is shooting for the stars with its 10-point plan, so there&#8217;s going to be some noise tomorrow and likely another round\/s of negotiations in the next weeks. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 7 bps (98% probability of no change at the next meeting) Rate hikes&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":521477,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[84,1294,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-521476","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/521476","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=521476"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/521476\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/521477"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=521476"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=521476"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=521476"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}