{"id":523686,"date":"2026-04-10T17:20:11","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T17:20:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/523686\/"},"modified":"2026-04-10T17:20:11","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T17:20:11","slug":"us-march-cpy-3-3-y-y-vs-3-3-expected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/523686\/","title":{"rendered":"US March CPY 3.3% y\/y vs 3.3% expected"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/news\/us-february-cpy-24-yy-vs-24-expected-20260311\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"article-link\" data-v-4026719d=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Prior <\/a>was +2.4% y\/yCPI 0.9% m\/m vs +0.9% expectedPrior +0.3% m\/mNon-seasonally adjusted, unrounded +1.05% vs +0.47% priorCore CPI 2.6% vs 2.7% y\/y expectedPrior core 2.5%Core CPI m\/m +0.2% vs +0.9% expectedPrior core +0.2%Real weekly earnings -0.9% vs +0.1% priorCPI Supercore M\/M +0.18% vs +0.350% priorCPI Supercore Y\/Y 3.14% vs 2.746% priorEnergy index +10.2%<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">The economists did a good job of forecasting the rise in energy prices. Gasoline prices were up 21.9% in this report but note that US gasoline prices are up 40% compared to pre-war so there is still more in the pipeline. Of course, with a ceasefire that will reverse over time.<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">Fed pricing continues to show no moves this year. There was some modest USD weakness on the release but it&#8217;s mostly faded. The lower core number is likely behind the drop in the dollar.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\" data-v-4026719d=\"\">Consumer price inflation has been on a gradual but uneven path lower since peaking above 9% in mid-2022. The Federal Reserve&#8217;s aggressive tightening campaign succeeded in pulling headline CPI back below 3% by late 2024, but the final stretch toward the 2% target has proven stubborn, particularly in services.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\" data-v-4026719d=\"\">Shelter costs, which make up roughly a third of the CPI basket, have been the single largest contributor to above-target inflation. Although private-sector rent measures have been cooling for over a year, the BLS methodology captures lease renewals with a significant lag. Most economists expect shelter disinflation to continue feeding through, but the pace has repeatedly disappointed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\" data-v-4026719d=\"\">The March report marks a sharp departure from the benign readings of recent months, driven almost entirely by energy. Economists largely nailed the call \u2014 gasoline surged 21.2% in the month, the largest monthly increase since the series began in 1967, as the Iran conflict sent crude prices spiking. But the pipeline isn&#8217;t empty. US gasoline prices remain roughly 40% above pre-war levels, meaning further pass-through into upcoming reports is likely unless the ceasefire holds and prices retrace. If it does hold, that energy shock will reverse over the coming months, but with a lag.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\" data-v-4026719d=\"\">Underneath the energy noise, the core picture was encouraging. Core CPI rose just 0.2% for the second straight month, and the supercore measure \u2014 stripping out food, energy, and shelter \u2014 printed a soft 0.18%, well below February&#8217;s 0.350%. That deceleration will be welcome at the Fed, though policymakers will want to see whether the energy shock bleeds into broader prices before drawing conclusions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Prior was +2.4% y\/yCPI 0.9% m\/m vs +0.9% expectedPrior +0.3% m\/mNon-seasonally adjusted, unrounded +1.05% vs +0.47% priorCore CPI&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":523687,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[84,1294,56,54,55],"class_list":{"0":"post-523686","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom","12":"tag-unitedkingdom"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/523686","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=523686"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/523686\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/523687"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=523686"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=523686"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=523686"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}