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<\/a><\/p>\n\u201cWith the economic, political and diplomatic costs of the war rising, a negotiated ceasefire and re-opening of the Strait seems to have become more preferable to further escalation \u2014 for now,\u201d energy analyst John Kemp argued in an article<\/a> published hours after the ceasefire was announced.<\/p>\n But three days after the ceasefire was announced, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is not happening. The ceasefire, by the way, is fragile, at best.<\/p>\n \u201cThe ceasefire has not reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and transit remains tightly controlled,\u201d maritime intelligence firm Windward said in a Thursday note<\/a>.<\/p>\n The movement of vessels continues through routing managed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), not standard commercial lanes.<\/p>\n Related: The Pentagon Has 268 Days to Replace America\u2019s Most Critical Supply Chain<\/a><\/p>\n \u201cTransit through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, coordinated, and selectively enforced. There has been no return to open commercial navigation. Standard shipping lanes remain largely unused, and no meaningful increase in traffic has followed the ceasefire announcement,\u201d Windward said.<\/p>\n Therefore, the ceasefire itself is not easing the global oil and gas shock, despite the fact that its announcement pushed prices 15% down in one day to below $100 per barrel.<\/p>\n Without a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the shock to the global energy system will deepen and affect the global economy, analysts say.<\/p>\n \u201cRecovery will depend not on declarations, but on sustained, observable change in transit behavior, enforcement, and risk conditions,\u201d Windward analysts noted.<\/p>\n Reports have emerged that the state refiner of Taiwan and commodity trading giant Glencore have each booked a tanker to travel<\/a> to the Middle East and load oil, but shippers as a whole are still very cautious amid limited information about passage available.<\/p>\n Shipping giant Maersk has said<\/a> that \u201cAny decision to transit the Strait of Hormuz will be based on continuous risk assessments, close monitoring of the security situation, and available guidance from relevant authorities and partners.\u201d<\/p>\n Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened today without any restrictions and risks, oil and gas supply from the Middle East faces recovery of several months<\/a> well into the late summer, according to Wood Mackenzie.<\/p>\n This, of course, is contingent on an operating Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n Goldman Sachs this week warned that Brent Crude prices are set to average above $100<\/a> per barrel this year if the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly shut to tanker traffic for another month.<\/p>\n Huge risks remain as to whether the ceasefire would hold or any agreement would be reached.<\/p>\n \u201cIf a resolution to the war proves unachievable, we expect Brent to trade upwards again, with higher prices and demand destruction ultimately balancing the market,\u201d WoodMac\u2019s analysts said<\/a>.<\/p>\n Average Brent prices<\/a> of above $90 per barrel this year would slow global economic growth and push the U.S. and EU into recession. If Brent averages $100 per barrel in 2026, global economic growth would slow to 1.7%, down from WoodMac\u2019s pre-war forecast of 2.5%. In the case of $200 oil, a global recession is inevitable, with the global economy likely to contract by 0.5%, according to WoodMac\u2019s analysis.<\/p>\n \u201cThe ceasefire has reduced the immediate risk of further escalation, but it has not resolved the underlying supply disruptions,\u201d Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Thursday note<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cAs long as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, and as long as infrastructure, storage and shipping constraints persist, the oil market is likely to remain tight – especially in the prompt segment.\u201d<\/p>\n By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com<\/p>\n