{"id":531779,"date":"2026-04-15T07:24:15","date_gmt":"2026-04-15T07:24:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/531779\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T07:24:15","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T07:24:15","slug":"trumps-iran-war-could-trigger-global-recession-imf-warns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/531779\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s Iran war could trigger global recession, IMF warns"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Your support helps us to tell the story<\/p>\n<p class=\"sc-1uza6dc-0 cJuFfN\">From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it&#8217;s investigating the financials of Elon Musk&#8217;s pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, &#8216;The A Word&#8217;, which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.<\/p>\n<p class=\"sc-1uza6dc-0 cJuFfN\">At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.<\/p>\n<p class=\"sc-1uza6dc-0 cJuFfN\">The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.<\/p>\n<p>Your support makes all the difference.Read more<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/topic\/donald-trump\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Donald Trump<\/a>\u2019s war on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/topic\/iran\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Iran<\/a> risks triggering a global recession, the International Monetary Fund (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/topic\/imf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">IMF<\/a>) has warned in the latest damning assessment of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/world\/middle-east\/iran-us-war-live-trump-ceasefire-israel-lebanon-hormuz-b2954214.html\" rel=\"follow nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the conflict\u2019s impact<\/a> on the world economy. <\/p>\n<p>The influential financial body said the international outlook had \u201cabruptly darkened\u201d as a result of the war, which threatens to throw the global economy \u201coff course\u201d and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/world\/americas\/us-politics\/vance-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-terrorism-b2957110.html\" title=\"JD Vance accuses Iran of \u2018economic terrorism\u2019 in Strait of Hormuz and threatens \u2018two can play that game\u2019\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">could cause an energy crisis on an unprecedented scale.<\/a> As oil and gas prices continue to rise, a worldwide recession could be a \u201cclose call\u201d in a severe scenario in which there is further turmoil, the body warned.<\/p>\n<p>Of the major economies, the UK faces the biggest hit to growth, with forecasts slashed for the next two years. In a further blow to Sir Keir Starmer, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/topic\/imf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">IMF<\/a> warns that inflation and unemployment will also rise. <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/2267772031.jpg\"  loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Smoke rises from the area of Kuwait international airport after a reported drone strike hit a fuel depot last month. Gulf countries called for Iran to immediately halt its strikes on their territory\" class=\"sc-1mc30lb-0 ggpMaE inline-gallery-btn\"\/>Smoke rises from the area of Kuwait international airport after a reported drone strike hit a fuel depot last month. Gulf countries called for Iran to immediately halt its strikes on their territory (AFP\/Getty)<\/p>\n<p>Hopes for an easing of tensions in the Middle East were raised on Tuesday after President Trump suggested that negotiations with Iran over a ceasefire could restart \u201cover the next two days\u201d. There were also reports that Tehran is considering a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/world\/middle-east\/trump-iran-strait-of-hormuz-us-blockade-china-b2957107.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">pause on its shipments through the Strait of Hormuz<\/a> in a bid to get talks back on track. <\/p>\n<p>But the US president also issued more criticism towards the UK, reiterating his calls for Britain to expand<a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/business\/donald-trump-strait-of-hormuz-keir-starmer-airlines-failure-b2956375.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"> oil and gas drilling<\/a> in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/topic\/north-sea\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">North Sea<\/a> to deal with the growing energy crisis.<\/p>\n<p>The chancellor, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/topic\/rachel-reeves\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Rachel Reeves, <\/a>criticised Trump\u2019s \u201cfolly\u201d in starting a war without a clear exit strategy, saying she was \u201cvery frustrated and angry\u201d with America\u2019s actions in the Middle East, before she heads to Washington for the IMF\u2019s spring meeting, where she will urge other countries to work together to respond to the crisis. <\/p>\n<p>In its latest economic outlook, the IMF predicted that, in the wake of the war, UK economic growth will be weaker than previously forecast, with GDP set to grow by 0.8 per cent this year and 1.3 per cent next year. Both are below its prediction, as recently as January, of 1.3 per cent this year and 1.5 per cent in 2027. The UK economy grew last year by 1.3 per cent.<\/p>\n<p>The IMF also predicts that UK inflation will rise, driven by higher energy prices, more expensive fuel and increased food costs, to an average of 3.2 per cent this year and 2.4 per cent next year. It had previously forecast averages of 2.5 per cent and 2 per cent. Petrol prices have already risen 19 per cent since the conflict started, while the cost of diesel is up by more than a third.<\/p>\n<p>In another blow to the UK, the IMF predicts unemployment will rise to 5.6 per cent this year, up from last year\u2019s 4.9 per cent.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/477322528.jpg\"  loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Donald Trump\u2019s war on Iran has been blamed for the economic turmoil\" class=\"sc-1mc30lb-0 ggpMaE inline-gallery-btn\"\/>Donald Trump\u2019s war on Iran has been blamed for the economic turmoil (AFP\/Getty)<\/p>\n<p>In a foreword to the latest report, IMF economic counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said that the international outlook had \u201cabruptly darkened\u201d, knocking the global economy off a steady trajectory of growth.<\/p>\n<p>He added: \u201cThe closure of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/topic\/strait-of-hormuz\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Strait of Hormuz<\/a> and serious damage to critical production facilities in a region central to global hydrocarbon supply could cause an energy crisis on an unprecedented scale.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The IMF said a severe consequence of war in the Gulf over coming months would mean that global growth could be cut by 1.3 percentage points in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis would mean a close call for a global recession (growth rate below 2 per cent), which has happened only four times since 1980, with the latest two occasions corresponding to the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic,\u201d the report states.<\/p>\n<p>When it came to the UK, the IMF said both the war in the Middle East and weak national growth late last year were to blame for Britain\u2019s downgrade. In response, the shadow chancellor, Sir Mel Stride, said: \u201cBeing handed the biggest downgrade in the G7 is a clear verdict on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/topic\/rachel-reeves\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Rachel Reeves<\/a>\u2019 choices \u2013 and she\u2019s got no one to blame but herself. The chancellor hiked national insurance in her first budget, doubling inflation and sending unemployment soaring. She is driving the hospitality industry out of business with business rates increases, and planning the first hike in fuel duty in 15 years. Her \u2018plan\u2019 to keep costs down has left us with the highest inflation in the G7, with businesses closing and the cost of living skyrocketing.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Conservatives urge international partners to see Rachel Reeves as a cautionary tale of what happens when a politician has no clue what they\u2019re doing and chooses to hammer business relentlessly.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Ms Reeves said the war would \u201ccome at a cost to the UK\u201d but insisted that the government was \u201cstrengthening Britain\u2019s energy security, backing British industry and protecting households to build a Britain that is stronger, more resilient, and prepared for the future.\u201d <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Your support helps us to tell the story From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":531780,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[59,57,58,50,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-531779","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-united-kingdom","tag-gb","tag-great-britain","tag-greatbritain","tag-news","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/531779","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=531779"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/531779\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/531780"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=531779"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=531779"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=531779"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}