A new report from humanitarian group Mercy Corps this week has highlighted that disruptions to fuel, fertiliser, and shipping have rapidly transmitted to import-dependent economies, affecting planting seasons now underway in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Pakistan.<\/p>\n
Food insecurity outcomes for 2026 and 2027 are now \u201clocked in\u201d for some of the world\u2019s most fragile countries, Mercy Corps warns.<\/p>\n
Its research shows:<\/p>\n
Global fertiliser prices have surged during critical planting periods.<\/p>\n
Fuel prices rose as much as 150% within days in some markets, driving up transport and water costs.<\/p>\n
Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz fell by more than 90%, constraining agricultural supply chains.<\/p>\n
In Somalia, fuel spikes have doubled the cost of water in drought-affected areas.<\/p>\n
Humanitarian shipments to Sudan are being rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope, adding roughly 6,000 miles and up to three weeks to transit times.<\/p>\n
The World Food Programme estimates 45 million additional people could be pushed into acute hunger globally.<\/p>\n
That comes as dry conditions in the US Plains threaten to curb wheat yields there. Data last week showed that more than half of the US is in drought<\/a>, following low rainfall.<\/p>\n Dry weather in Australia, and the Black Sea growing region, are also hurting wheat yields there.<\/p>\n The agenda<\/p>\n 10am BST: Eurozone trade data for February<\/p>\n 1.30pm BST: IMF: Europe Department press briefing<\/p>\n 6pm BST: Baker Hughes count of US oil rigs<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Key events<\/p>\n Show key events only<\/p>\n Please turn on JavaScript to use this feature<\/p>\n UK mortgage rates drop a little<\/p>\n UK mortgage rates have dipped slightly today, as some lenders begin to cut their offerings.<\/p>\n Moneyfacts reports that the average 2-year fixed residential mortgage rate today is 5.87%, down from 5.88% on Thursday.<\/p>\n The average 5-year fixed residential mortgage rate today is 5.76%, down from 5.77% yesterday.<\/p>\n Santander and TSB, and the Coventry and Skipton building societies, have all said they are cutting the cost of some fixed-rate mortgages, after hopes of a Middle East peace deal pushed down their borrowing costs.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Oil is slightly lower today, but still quite close to the $100 a barrel mark.<\/p>\n Brent crude futures are down 0.75% at $98.70 a barrel, after Donald Trump told reporters last night:<\/p>\n double quotation mark\u201cWe\u2019re going to see what happens. But I think we\u2019re very close to making a deal with Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n But even if a deal was reached immediately, it would take weeks for oil and gas supplies to return to normality.<\/p>\n Before the crisis began, oil was trading around $72 a barrel, and jumped to almost $120 during March.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Electricity producers’ shares fall as UK considers breaking pricing link with gas<\/p>\n Britain\u2019s blue-chip share index has dropped slightly, pulled down by electricity producers.<\/p>\n The FTSE 100 share index is down 15 points, or 0.14%, at 10,577.<\/p>\n SSE (-4%) and Centrica (-3.5%) are leading the fallers, after the UK government indicated it is considering cutting the link between electricity and gas prices.<\/p>\n That link means that gas almost always sets the price of electricity under Britain\u2019s marginal cost pricing model \u2013 meaning periods of high gas prices are painful for consumers (but lucrative for electricity producers).<\/p>\n Speaking in Washington yesterday, chancellor Rachel Reeves said she and energy secretary Ed Miliband were looking at the issue:<\/p>\n Reeves said:<\/p>\n double quotation mark\u201cSo, this is something that I\u2019ve been attracted to for quite some time, delinking electricity and gas prices.<\/p>\n \u201cAt the moment, when gas prices are high, we end up paying more for our electricity, even though the cost of producing it doesn\u2019t change.<\/p>\n \u201cAnd so myself and Ed Miliband are now working to come up with a practical way that we can delink those prices.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n European stock markets have opened calmly, after a truce between Lebanon and Israel truce was announced yesterday.<\/p>\n With Donald Trump<\/a> suggesting the next US-Iran meeting might take place over the weekend, hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East are lifting shares slightly.<\/p>\n While Gemany\u2019s DAX is flat, France\u2019s CAC 40 has gained 0.15% in early trading and Italy\u2019s FTSE Mib index has risen by 0.25%.<\/p>\n This leaves the pan-European Stoxx 600 index on track to notch its fourth weekly gain in a row.<\/p>\n Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, says:<\/p>\n double quotation markEvents in the Middle East remain the key market driver, and President Trump\u2019s overnight comments on the potential for further peace talks between the US and Iran could boost equity markets today.<\/p>\n A ceasefire between Israel and Iranian proxy Hezbollah after Israeli\/Lebanese talks in Washington provides further hope for de-escalation.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a003.33 EDT<\/p>\n The jump in wheat prices comes as food inflation is already forecast to climb over the coming months.<\/p>\n Capital Economics predict UK food inflation could almost double by mid-2027, telling clients:<\/p>\n double quotation markOutside of fuel and utilities, the prices of flights, other forms of transport, flowers and food are likely to rise the most in response to the Iran war. In our baseline scenario, food price inflation rises from 3.3% in February to 6.0% in the middle of next year.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Cuts to overseas aid will worsen shocks to global economy, David Miliband says Cuts to overseas aid by countries including the US and the UK risk stoking global economic instability amid the humanitarian crisis resulting from the Iran war, David Miliband<\/a> has told my colleague Richard Partington.<\/p>\n The former British foreign secretary and head of the International Rescue Committee (IRC) said the US \u201cabandoning\u201d of its aid programme<\/a> under Donald Trump would worsen shocks to the global economy that would impact poor and wealthy countries alike.<\/p>\n Miliband also said he regretted that Keir Starmer\u2019s government was slashing the UK\u2019s aid budget<\/a>, because supporting the world\u2019s poorest was morally the right thing to do and a \u201cgood investment for Britain\u201d.<\/p>\n The former Labour minister said:<\/p>\n double quotation mark\u201cAn untended humanitarian crisis is an incubator of political instability. We are in a more connected world than ever before.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Iran war shows how connected we are, but the connections go the other way [from poor to rich countries], too.\u201d<\/p>\n Here\u2019s the full story:<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Introduction: Wheat price heading for biggest jump in two months<\/p>\n Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.<\/p>\n A jump in the wheat price is adding to concern that the conflict in the Middle East will fuel food inflation this year.<\/p>\n Chicago wheat futures are up almost 4.5% this week, heading for their biggest weekly jump since February. Concerns about dry weather in the US, and the Iran war, are both factors.<\/p>\n The jump in fertiliser and diesel prices since the war began at the end of February have hit farmers\u2019 costs, and could lead to lower harvest levels \u2013 especially as traffic through the strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked<\/a>.<\/p>\n A new report from humanitarian group Mercy Corps this week has highlighted that disruptions to fuel, fertiliser, and shipping have rapidly transmitted to import-dependent economies, affecting planting seasons now underway in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Pakistan.<\/p>\n Food insecurity outcomes for 2026 and 2027 are now \u201clocked in\u201d for some of the world\u2019s most fragile countries, Mercy Corps warns.<\/p>\n Its research shows:<\/p>\n Global fertiliser prices have surged during critical planting periods.<\/p>\n Fuel prices rose as much as 150% within days in some markets, driving up transport and water costs.<\/p>\n Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz fell by more than 90%, constraining agricultural supply chains.<\/p>\n In Somalia, fuel spikes have doubled the cost of water in drought-affected areas.<\/p>\n Humanitarian shipments to Sudan are being rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope, adding roughly 6,000 miles and up to three weeks to transit times.<\/p>\n The World Food Programme estimates 45 million additional people could be pushed into acute hunger globally.<\/p>\n That comes as dry conditions in the US Plains threaten to curb wheat yields there. Data last week showed that more than half of the US is in drought<\/a>, following low rainfall.<\/p>\n Dry weather in Australia, and the Black Sea growing region, are also hurting wheat yields there.<\/p>\n The agenda<\/p>\n 10am BST: Eurozone trade data for February<\/p>\n 1.30pm BST: IMF: Europe Department press briefing<\/p>\n 6pm BST: Baker Hughes count of US oil rigs<\/p>\n![\"Richard](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/1776414549_924_Richard_Partington,_R.png\")
Richard Partington<\/p>\n