{"id":542651,"date":"2026-04-21T10:42:11","date_gmt":"2026-04-21T10:42:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/542651\/"},"modified":"2026-04-21T10:42:11","modified_gmt":"2026-04-21T10:42:11","slug":"wage-growth-hits-lowest-level-since-november-2020-unemployment-rate-unexpectedly-falls-business-live-business","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/542651\/","title":{"rendered":"Wage growth hits lowest level since November 2020; unemployment rate unexpectedly falls &#8211; business live | Business"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Key events<\/p>\n<p>Show key events only<\/p>\n<p>Please turn on JavaScript to use this feature<\/p>\n<p>Petrol and diesel prices edge lower<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Some welcome news for motorists: unleaded has dropped to 157.57p per litre in the UK, down from 158.31p last week, according to figures from the RAC. Diesel is now at 190.13p, down from a peak of 191.54p last week.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">But prices are still much higher than usual \u2013 and the BBC <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/articles\/cx2drmm1mglo\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">reported<\/a> today that fuel thefts have surged by 62% compared with a year ago due to higher prices at the pump.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The fuel theft recovery company Pay My Fuel reported that the average weekly rate of drive-offs per forecourt increased from 2.1 in March 2025 to 3.4 in the same month this year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The business said the average value of fuel stolen per incident rose by 46% over the same period.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Wage growth hits lowest level since November 2020; unemployment rate unexpectedly falls - business live&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/live\/2026\/apr\/21\/wage-growth-level-unemployment-rate-falls-iran-war-business-latest-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69e748928f084f159c365e80#block-69e748928f084f159c365e80\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Updated at\u00a006.01 EDT<\/p>\n<p>Royal Mail pledges to invest \u00a3500m to improve UK deliveriesA man posts a letter in a Royal Mail postbox on June 30, 2022 in London, England Photograph: Carl Court\/Getty Images<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Royal Mail has promised to invest \u00a3500m over the next five years to improve its UK delivery service.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The service is now working towards meeting its new postal delivery targets by May next year, after agreeing a plan to roll out changes to scrap second-class post on Saturdays.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">It will phase in a new letter delivery model next month, which will see it deliver second-class post every other weekday.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The company said the changes should see it improve first class next day delivery to around 85% within nine months of the reforms, then hit the 90% target set by the regulator Ofcom within a year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Chief executive Alistair Cochrane said:<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markWe recognise our service hasn\u2019t always been the standard our customers rightly expect and we\u2019re determined to do better. The plan we\u2019ve set out today shows how we\u2019ll make a step change in performance across the UK, backed by \u00a3500 million of investment over the next five years.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2025\/oct\/15\/royal-mail-fined-ofcom-missing-delivery-targets\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"> postal service was fined a record \u00a321m by Ofcom<\/a> last year for missing its annual delivery targets for first- and second-class mail, on top of a \u00a310.5m fine in 2024 and a \u00a35.6m fine in 2023.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Natalie Black, Ofcom\u2019s director for infrastructure and connectivity, said:<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markAs well as fining Royal Mail \u00a337 million for failing to deliver what customers expect and deserve, we\u2019ve also been calling on the company to publicly set out a credible plan for change, backed by investment. Now that\u2019s published, Royal Mail needs to get on and implement it. Their plan must deliver significant and continuous improvement, with performance getting back on track.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">CWU general secretary Dave Ward said:<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markWe welcome any serious proposal that seeks to reverse customer service failings at Royal Mail, but what really matters is what happens on the ground to make that change happen.<\/p>\n<p>Postal workers remain committed to delivering for the communities they serve, but they need the tools to do this.<\/p>\n<p>They need answers over whether the workforce will be properly resourced and retained, whether they will have a real say over how change is deployed, what manageable workloads look like, and how serious issues are fixed.<\/p>\n<p>Royal Mail\u2019s current attitude of running the company with top-down, command and control methods, and prioritising finance over staffing and customer quality must end.<\/p>\n<p>We have reached a negotiators agreement that says these things will be delivered, and we are currently explaining this to our representatives and members before we hold a ballot.<\/p>\n<p>But Royal Mail\u2019s track record of sticking to their promises is not great, which is why as part of this agreement we have asked the government and parliament to oversee affairs and continue holding the company to account.<\/p>\n<p>To give Royal Mail any chance at future success, we must also see a change in the remit of Ofcom, and an end to the exploitative labour models our competitors use to undercut Royal Mail and our posties.<\/p>\n<p>We urgently await discussions with the government on all these issues.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Last April the Czech billionaire Daniel K\u0159et\u00ednsk\u00fd completed a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2025\/apr\/03\/royal-mail-takeover-deal-czech-billionaire-finalised-daniel-kretinsky\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"> drawn-out \u00a33.6bn purchase<\/a> of Royal Mail\u2019s owner, International Distribution Services, after the takeover was approved by a UK government national security review.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">That same month <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2025\/mar\/07\/royal-mail-price-first-class-stamp-second-class\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the price of a first-class stamp rose,<\/a> up 5p to \u00a31.70, while the cost of the second-class service rose by 2p to 87p. This year, the price of a first-class stamp increased by 10p, or 6%, to \u00a31.80. The cost of the second-class service went up by 4p, or 5%, to 91p.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Wage growth hits lowest level since November 2020; unemployment rate unexpectedly falls - business live&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/live\/2026\/apr\/21\/wage-growth-level-unemployment-rate-falls-iran-war-business-latest-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69e73adb8f089b30862af73c#block-69e73adb8f089b30862af73c\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Updated at\u00a005.36 EDT<\/p>\n<p>AI firms looking for London offices boost British Land<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Real estate group British Land has increased its earnings guidance for 2026 and 2027 as it reported \u201caccelerating demand\u201d from AI firms.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Chief executive Simon Carter said:<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markIn campuses, we are seeing accelerating demand from a new wave of AI and innovation-led occupiers, driving strong rental growth in what remains a supply constrained market.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The company said it had recently signed Anthropic, one of the biggest AI companies in the world, for 158,000 sq ft at its One Triton Square office in London\u2019s so-called \u201cknowledge quarter\u201d near Euston \u2013 the sixth deal it has completed with the business, it said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/ftse\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">FTSE<\/a> 100 company now expects to deliver underlying earnings per share of 28.9p of the year to the end of March, ahead of previous guidance. Its shares are up by about 2% this morning.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Wage growth hits lowest level since November 2020; unemployment rate unexpectedly falls - business live&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/live\/2026\/apr\/21\/wage-growth-level-unemployment-rate-falls-iran-war-business-latest-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69e7353c8f08b6bcfa47a615#block-69e7353c8f08b6bcfa47a615\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a>UK labour market &#8216;cannot escape effects of war&#8217;, says work and pensions secretary<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Turning back to the latest batch of UK labour market figures, which showed an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2026\/apr\/21\/uk-enemployment-rate-pay-growth-ons-interest-rates\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">unexpected fall in the unemployment rate<\/a> \u2013 Pat McFadden, secretary of state for work and pensions, said:<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markThese figures show that there was an improvement in the labour market at the beginning of the year with unemployment falling below 5%, and 332,000 more people in work than a year ago.<\/p>\n<p>But we cannot escape the effects of the war in the Middle East which are likely to feed through to prices and employment in the coming months. We will do everything we can to support the country through this period, including by slashing energy bills by up to 25% for 10,000 manufacturers.<\/p>\n<p>And we\u2019re focusing on future proofing and upskilling our workforce through our \u00a32.5 billion investment to get more young people earning and learning alongside personalised support to help sick or disabled people who had previously been written off.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Wage growth hits lowest level since November 2020; unemployment rate unexpectedly falls - business live&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/live\/2026\/apr\/21\/wage-growth-level-unemployment-rate-falls-iran-war-business-latest-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69e72b858f089b30862af6dd#block-69e72b858f089b30862af6dd\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">It\u2019s a cautious open for European markets this morning. The UK\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/ftse\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">FTSE<\/a> 100 is up by less than 0.1%. The French Cac 40 has slipped 0.2%, and the German Dax is up 0.5%. But the Stoxx Europe 600, which tracks the biggest companies on the continent, is effectively flat.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Wage growth hits lowest level since November 2020; unemployment rate unexpectedly falls - business live&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/live\/2026\/apr\/21\/wage-growth-level-unemployment-rate-falls-iran-war-business-latest-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69e724af8f0812556eabf4c8#block-69e724af8f0812556eabf4c8\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a>Crest Nicholson shares plunge 29% after profit warning<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/1776768131_630_Julia-Kollewe,-L.png\" alt=\"Julia Kollewe\" class=\"dcr-lysqes\"\/>Julia Kollewe<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The UK housebuilder Crest Nicholson has issued another profit warning, hit by rising build costs, higher interest rates and worsening consumer confidence in the wake of the Iran war, and has begun talks with its lenders about relaxing its loan conditions. The news sent its shares 29% lower.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Martyn Clark, the chief executive, said:<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markIt is increasingly clear that the current macroeconomic uncertainty is contributing to the prospect of a more prolonged higher interest rate environment, renewed cost pressures and a deterioration in consumer confidence.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Following a drop in new enquiries and visitor levels to its sites, Crest now expects to complete 1,400 to 1,500 homes this rather than 1,550 to 1,700 as previously estimated. Build costs have been higher than expected because of higher energy costs, and it anticipates a reduced number of land sales. It has completed one land sale so far, but said:<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markHowever, in recent weeks there has been a marked softening in sentiment among prospective land purchasers. Buyers have become more cautious in the face of the uncertain outlook, resulting in reduced engagement in bidding processes and an increased reluctance to transact at market values.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">This has prompted Crest to slash its underlying profit forecast to \u00a35m to \u00a315m this year, from its previous estimate of \u00a342m to 52m, and warned that \u201cas a consequence of lower expected profitability, it is in the early stages of seeking temporary banking covenant relaxation\u201d. Analysts had been expecting a profit of \u00a344m.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The builder now expects net debt of \u00a3100m to \u00a3120m (previously \u00a315m to \u00a365m) and interest costs of \u00a315m, rather than \u00a310m to \u00a312m. With the Iran war driving oil and gas prices sharply higher, UK inflation is likely to increase, and the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates in the coming months. Prior to the conflict, economists had been expecting rate cuts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Anthony Codling, housing analyst at the broker RBC Capital Markets, said:<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markWe don\u2019t expect lenders to withdraw funds, but we expect their ongoing support will come at the price of higher interest costs.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">He said the decision to slow land sales \u201cwill hit profits this year, but we agree with the decision not to sell at suboptimal prices, a value over volume approach\u201d. The Surrey-based builder closed a divisional office in December and cut 50 jobs.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Wage growth hits lowest level since November 2020; unemployment rate unexpectedly falls - business live&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/live\/2026\/apr\/21\/wage-growth-level-unemployment-rate-falls-iran-war-business-latest-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69e721c38f089b30862af69f#block-69e721c38f089b30862af69f\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a>Primark owner confirms plan to spin off fashion chainViews of Primark on Oxford Street in London, April 2026 Photograph: Jack Taylor\/Reuters<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Elsewhere this morning, the owner of Primark has confirmed its plan to demerge the fashion chain from the group.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Associated British Foods \u2013 which also owns the bread brand Kingsmill and Twinings tea \u2013 said it wants to break up its conglomerate structure by the end of 2027, following a five-month evaluation with shareholders.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">It means Primark could become a member of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/ftse\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">FTSE<\/a> 100, the UK\u2019s group of blue chip shares, if it joins the stock market.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at the broker AJ Bell, said:<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markFor years, ABF said it would never split Primark from the group, arguing that a conglomerate structure provided added benefits. To some extent that is true, as evidenced by ABF regularly having one of its many component parts fall behind and the rest of the group picking up the slack. However, the bigger Primark has got, the stronger the call to let it stand on its own. ABF has finally buckled and pressed the button on the demerger.<\/p>\n<p>\u2026Demerging from a conglomerate parent could lead to faster decision making and freedom to explore new growth opportunities. That could involve expanding into new countries or adding smaller stores in high footfall locations that only stock the most popular items.<\/p>\n<p>\u2026Primark is currently experiencing a few bumps in the road amid tougher market conditions. A prolonged Middle East conflict could exacerbate the situation if the oil price stays higher for longer, leading to cost pressures for Primark and weighing on consumer sentiment. While that suggests uncertainty ahead, investors looking at the demerger will be judging Primark on its long-term growth potential, not the next few months.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The announcement came as the company reported that group sales fell 2% to \u00a39.46bn in the six months to 28 February and pre-tax profits were down 9% to \u00a3632m.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The company said its sugar business performed \u201cbelow our expectations\u201d and was now expected to report an annual loss, while its grocery business had faced weak trading in the US.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Sales at established Primark stores across the world fell 2.7% in a \u201cdifficult clothing market\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Shares in ABF are down by about 6% this morning.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Wage growth hits lowest level since November 2020; unemployment rate unexpectedly falls - business live&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/live\/2026\/apr\/21\/wage-growth-level-unemployment-rate-falls-iran-war-business-latest-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69e71f2e8f089b30862af695#block-69e71f2e8f089b30862af695\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Updated at\u00a003.12 EDT<\/p>\n<p>The UK unemployment rate decreased in the latest quarter Illustration: Labour Force Survey (LFS) from the Office for National Statistics<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Here\u2019s the ONS chart showing the unexpected fall in the UK\u2019s unemployment rate in the three months ended in February \u2013 though it does not include the impact of the Iran war, which started at the end of that month.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The impact of the war is expected to hurt the labour market in the coming months. The EY Item Club has forecast that unemployment <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2026\/apr\/20\/250000-could-lose-job-2027-uk-recession-analysis-economy-iran-war\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">will hit 5.8% by the middle of 2027<\/a>, with almost 250,000 more people losing their jobs because of the crisis in the Middle East, pushing the number of jobseekers to more than 2.1 million.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Last week the International Monetary Fund warned that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2026\/apr\/14\/iran-war-global-recession-imf-uk-growth-forecasts-oil-prices\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">UK faced the biggest growth downgrade among the G7 group of countries<\/a>, with 0.8% forecast for 2026, down from the 1.3% the IMF predicted in January.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Wage growth hits lowest level since November 2020; unemployment rate unexpectedly falls - business live&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/live\/2026\/apr\/21\/wage-growth-level-unemployment-rate-falls-iran-war-business-latest-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69e71e4f8f08b6bcfa47a570#block-69e71e4f8f08b6bcfa47a570\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Economists are not convinced that the UK\u2019s labour market is a healthy one. Thomas Pugh, chief economist at the audit and tax firm RSM, notes that the drop in the unemployment rate was mostly driven by people dropping out of the labour force.<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markIndeed, employment only rose by 24,000 in the three months to February, well below population growth. What\u2019s more, the number of people on payrolls contracted slightly in February. Private sector pay growth ex-bonus also slowed slightly from 3.3% to 3.2%. All this suggests that despite the fall in the headline unemployment rate, the labour market remained weak going into the energy crisis.<\/p>\n<p>The provisional data for March suggests the labour market weakened last month. Payrolls dropped by 11,000 and the number of vacancies fell again. The risk is that rising energy prices prompt a big pull back in consumer demand while simultaneously pushing up input costs for businesses, which would push the unemployment rate even higher. We now think the unemployment rate will probably peak at around 5.5%. If energy prices rise higher over the summer as supply becomes even more constricted, the unemployment rate could move towards 6%.<\/p>\n<p>The weak labour market substantially lowers the risk of higher energy prices feeding through into higher wages as they did in 2022 as evidenced by slowing pay growth. Workers are in a much weaker position than they were in 2022 and will find it harder to bid up nominal wages to protect their real incomes. That will lessen the second-round effects that the MPC is most worried about. That, in turn, will temper the need for aggressive rate hikes.<\/p>\n<p>The base case is still for a prolonged interest rate hold, rather than a series of rate hikes, unless inflation goes substantially higher.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Wage growth hits lowest level since November 2020; unemployment rate unexpectedly falls - business live&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/live\/2026\/apr\/21\/wage-growth-level-unemployment-rate-falls-iran-war-business-latest-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69e71c7a8f08b6bcfa47a55e#block-69e71c7a8f08b6bcfa47a55e\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a>Unemployment still likely to rise this year, BCC warns<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">While the latest figures show a fall in the UK\u2019s unemployment rate, businesses are warning that it is likely to rise overall this year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Patrick Milnes, head of people and work at the  British Chambers of Commerce, said:<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markWhile unemployment has seen a surprise fall to 4.9%, the expectation is that it will rise this year as business uncertainty caused by the Iran War overshadows the UK economy.<\/p>\n<p>With the cost of employment also high, and expected to rise as the Employment Rights Act comes into effect, our latest forecast expects unemployment to hit 5.5% this year. The slow-down in wage growth indicates businesses are taking their foot off the gas and the labour market will continue to loosen.<\/p>\n<p>With the conflict in Iran likely to drive higher inflation and weaken growth, the spectre of stagflation is beginning to grow.<\/p>\n<p>This has upended expectations at the start of the year of further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, increasing the level of uncertainty still further.<\/p>\n<p>The government must move swiftly to show that it understands the problems firms face. Action to ease the cost burdens they face, such as help with electricity bills and reform of business rates would go a long way to demonstrating this.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Wage growth hits lowest level since November 2020; unemployment rate unexpectedly falls - business live&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/live\/2026\/apr\/21\/wage-growth-level-unemployment-rate-falls-iran-war-business-latest-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69e71bda8f0812556eabf49c#block-69e71bda8f0812556eabf49c\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a>Introduction: Wage growth hits lowest level since November 2020<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Unemployment in the UK fell from a post-pandemic high in the three months ended in February, the latest figures show.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.9% in February, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics \u2013 down from 5.2% in the previous quarter.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">However, wage growth was meagre, hitting its lowest level since November 2020 at just 3.6% for regular earnings excluding bonuses. Total pay, which includes bonuses, also dropped to a five-year low of 3.8%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said:<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markThe number of workers on payroll remained broadly flat in recent periods, reflecting ongoing weak hiring.<\/p>\n<p>Vacancies fell to their lowest level in almost five years, but with unemployment also falling the number of vacancies per unemployed person remains broadly unchanged.<\/p>\n<p>Alongside falling unemployment, the number of people not actively seeking work increased, with data suggesting fewer students seeking work alongside their studies.<\/p>\n<p>Regular wage growth has slowed further with growth at its lowest rate in over five years.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Jonathan Raymond, investment manager at Quilter Cheviot, notes that today\u2019s release does not capture the impact of the war in the Middle East.<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markGiven today\u2019s data does not capture the initial impact of the conflict in the Middle East, we can expect the labour market to soften even more from here on out. Businesses have had hiring plans largely on hold since before the budget, and many will have swiftly put the brakes on again at the outbreak of the war. When combined with other factors including ongoing wage pressures, national insurance increases and changes to business rates, it is difficult to see the labour market making a swift recovery any time soon.<\/p>\n<p>The Bank of England\u2019s monetary policy committee will reconvene next week to deliver its next interest rate decision, and today\u2019s data, as well as what is expected to be an unpleasant inflation print tomorrow, will only further cement expectations for a hold. The conflict in the Middle East has seen energy prices soar, and the full effects will take some time to feed through, adding a fresh inflation risk and complicating the Bank\u2019s decision-making process. It will soon have to make a call on how much it looks through any inflation spike and look instead to potential growth implications.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Elsewhere, oil is down slightly this morning, with Brent crude \u2013 the international benchmark \u2013 down by just under 1% to $94.63 a barrel. It reflect some cautious optimism that Donald Trump will be able to secure a peace deal in Iran, despite comments from the US president on Monday night that it is \u201chighly unlikely\u201d he will extend the current ceasefire agreement, which expires on Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p>The agenda<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">10am BST: ZEW\u2019s Germany\/eurozone economic confidence survey<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">10am BST: Social media and gaming firms give evidence on screen time<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">1.30pm BST: US retail sales for March<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">6pm BST: NatWest virtual shareholder event<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Wage growth hits lowest level since November 2020; unemployment rate unexpectedly falls - business live&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/live\/2026\/apr\/21\/wage-growth-level-unemployment-rate-falls-iran-war-business-latest-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69e7100a8f08b6bcfa47a51a#block-69e7100a8f08b6bcfa47a51a\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Key events Show key events only Please turn on JavaScript to use this feature Petrol and diesel prices&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":542652,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[84,1294,56,54,55],"class_list":{"0":"post-542651","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom","12":"tag-unitedkingdom"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/542651","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=542651"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/542651\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/542652"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=542651"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=542651"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=542651"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}