{"id":543939,"date":"2026-04-22T02:59:16","date_gmt":"2026-04-22T02:59:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/543939\/"},"modified":"2026-04-22T02:59:16","modified_gmt":"2026-04-22T02:59:16","slug":"esc-insight-the-model-finland-the-eurovision-favourite-with-25-days-to-go","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/543939\/","title":{"rendered":"ESC Insight | The Model: Finland the Eurovision Favourite With 25 Days to Go"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Model, a Eurovision Song Contest prediction tool, continues to project Finland as the winner of Eurovision 2026 if the contest was held today.<\/p>\n

After a week where the London Eurovision Party brought fans in the UK capital out to see many of this year\u2019s acts perform, \u2018Liekinheitin\u2019 by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen has increased its lead, with The Model now forecasting it to score 397 points in the final in Vienna.<\/p>\n

That gives Finland a 43 point lead over France, with Denmark rising back into third as Israel falls to fourth after changes to the way the country\u2019s points are calculated.<\/p>\n

This week\u2019s update takes into account the London Eurovision Party, another pre-party I attended in person. I\u2019ll bring you some of my thoughts on the performances I hadn\u2019t seen in Amsterdam, as well as how some of the acts fared in the UK compared to the Netherlands.<\/p>\n

Coming up in this update:<\/p>\n

Which country has had the biggest crowd reaction at this year\u2019s pre-parties?
\nHave the qualification races become easier to predict?
\nWhy has there been less movement in The Model than in previous years?<\/p>\n

What Is The Model?<\/p>\n

The Model was built to answer a simple question: \u201cif the Eurovision Song Contest was held today, who would win?\u201d To do that, The Model turns opinion into data in the lead-up to the Contest to create weekly updates on how the race to Vienna is shaping up. The tool has frequently been more successful in predicting the Contest than betting odds, fan polls, or any other indicator.<\/p>\n

This year, The Model is bigger than ever before, with new updates released every Monday (except this week, with LEP shifting it to Tuesday!) from now until Eurovision 2026 on the ESC Insight website, where the results will change and evolve as this year\u2019s Contest comes closer.<\/p>\n

A new companion podcast, \u2018Inside The Model\u2019, is also launching on the ESC Insight feed, providing weekly prediction updates, unique song analysis, and special guest appearances from the world of the Contest. This week, the show takes a short break, but there are plenty of episodes already out! You could listen to Krista Siegfrids chat about her favourites for the year, learn more about this year\u2019s rule changes from ESC Insight\u2019s Ben Robertson, or listen to an hour-long preview of Eurovision 2026 filmed in Amsterdam last week.<\/p>\n

Under the Hood<\/p>\n

The toughest thing to predict in the Eurovision Song Contest is what I call \u2018non-musical factors\u2019.<\/p>\n

These are things that exist outside of the control of anyone involved in the entry. For example, the biggest differentiator between a song\u2019s expectations and reality is the lead vocal. However, that\u2019s in the gift of the lead singer to get right. Non-musical factors go far beyond the power of the act.<\/p>\n

The biggest non-musical factor, especially today, is politically motivated voting. Two countries have been most affected by this: Ukraine, who have been in a state of war with Russia for four years now, and Israel, which has been in various active conflicts since 2023.<\/p>\n

We know that those circumstances have affected the Eurovision performance of both countries. In 2022, less than three months after Russia\u2019s invasion, Ukraine won the Eurovision Song Contest with a record-breaking televote score unlikely to be surpassed for decades. And, in the last two years, Israel\u2019s televote totals have been similarly high. In fact, these factors affect jury voting as well, reducing votes for Israel in their case.<\/p>\n

These performances have often defied the bookmakers, with public vote points coming in much higher than anticipated. Because of this, the way I model Ukraine and Israel is unique, and with far less data to go off. For Israel specifically, the voting phenomenon around them has only existed for two years, and the way both acts were treated by bookmakers was very different. This creates an unclear picture of future performance and means, in short, it\u2019s much harder to gauge.<\/p>\n

This week, I\u2019ve made further tweaks to how The Model forecasts both countries\u2019 entries against these non-musical factors. I\u2019ve introduced a sliding-scale variable that tries to balance the expectations of bookmakers against how these countries often outperform them \u2013 the difference left should be attributable to \u2018non-musical factors\u2019.<\/p>\n

For Israel in particular, this also affects jury voting, with a higher place in the odds being offset by a reduction in the jury voting the shorter the odds get. The reason I\u2019ve created this is to try and accurately replicate the behaviour of juries around the previous two entries, while also taking their quality and competitive potential into account fairly.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a tough balance to find and, honestly, quite difficult to land on. As a result, I\u2019m letting you know honestly that those scores will fluctuate more than for other entries, and I can\u2019t promise they\u2019ll ever be right. With everything else, I\u2019m confident in how those scores appear \u2013 with Ukraine and Israel, there are more factors at play than can be truly mapped.<\/p>\n

And with that, this is what The Model forecasts would happen if the Eurovision Song Contest was held today, 21 April 2026.<\/p>\n

Semi-Final One
\n\"Semi-Final<\/p>\n

Semi-Final One from The Model \u2013 21\/04\/2026 (James Stephenson)<\/p>\n

Although we\u2019ve had two pre-parties come and go, the surprise is that The Model\u2019s projections haven\u2019t changed that much in Semi-Final One. Bar a slight fall for Israel (explained above to some extent) and a healthy gain for Serbia\u2019s \u2018Kraj mene\u2019, each country is only a handful of points away from where they were last week.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

That means the ten qualifiers from this semi-final are the same, although the gaps between the major contenders and the countries seen as on the bubble are increasing. Belgium\u2019s mark of 91 points is the lowest number a song has had which has made it through in any projection this season \u2013 and only four clear of Georgia.<\/p>\n

At the London Eurovision Party, there was a chance to see many of these entries in action. The only entry I hadn\u2019t seen live before was Estonia\u2019s, and Vanilla Ninja\u2019s rock-pop track \u2018Too Epic to be True\u2019 was perfectly fine to listen to, but didn\u2019t get a rapturous response from the UK crowd. Sweden drew a big noise, with the harsh baseline of \u2018My System\u2019 getting a reaction, and favourites Finland also got a good response \u2013 better than in Amsterdam, I thought.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Another song which technically had a debut was San Marino. Boy George, who is controversially involved in the entry, came on stage to perform with Senhit while also following up with the ubiquitous \u2018Karma Chameleon\u2019. While he\u2019s a genuinely big name who in theory adds star power to San Marino\u2019s entry, the decidedly mixed response in the hall to his appearance shows to me that his involvement could have the opposite effect on their score.<\/p>\n

The biggest reaction, though? Moldova could go big in Vienna. Satoshi is one of the most energetic performers in this line-up, and with him opening this semi-final, the sky feels like the limit. And while his song \u2018Viva, Moldova!\u2019 is modelled as one of the least jury-friendly songs in the field, it doesn\u2019t feel like jurors will ignore it en masse. It\u2019s a young, fresh song, and with younger jurors, could find support to become a genuine contender.<\/p>\n

Semi-Final Two
\n\"Semi-Final<\/p>\n

Semi-Final Two from The Model \u2013 21\/04\/2026 (James Stephenson)<\/p>\n

Onto Semi-Final Two, where the story is the same. Once again, it\u2019s the same top ten songs making it to the Grand Final and, once again, the contenders\u2019 points totals are beginning to edge further away.<\/p>\n

Australia is still in pole position to win this semi-final, with \u2018Eclipse\u2019 increasing its lead with The Model by a hair, and Denmark and Ukraine seem to be in close pursuit. Ukraine won its semi-final in 2025 with \u2018Bird of Pray\u2019, and there\u2019s every chance \u2018Ridnym\u2019 could do the same: for me, Leleka has one of the best vocals at this contest, and it wouldn\u2019t be surprising to see her earn a lot of jury points in Vienna to go along with an expected high televote. She\u2019s also the first guest on our\u00a0Eurovision Uncovered Interviews this year.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

There is more movement in this semi-final, though, with positions switching and shifting throughout the midfield. Malta and Czechia are two countries with jury-friendly ballads in \u2018Bella\u2019 and \u2018Crossroads\u2019, and they\u2019ve found themselves dipping and diving around each other in each projection. This week, it\u2019s Malta\u2019s turn to rise by double digit points, while Czechia\u2019s major increase last week almost entirely reverses \u2013 they\u2019re down to eighth place. \u2018Bangaranga\u2019, which I saw for the first time in London, is also up by two places.<\/p>\n

The race for the final spots has been tight every week, and that isn\u2019t changing. Albania, though, appear to be getting free, with another increase for Alis taking him 40 points ahead of 11th place. Norway still holds tenth, with Jonas Lovv delivering an impressive live performance amidst the crowd on the floor \u2013 despite claiming that his voice was completely shot. Behind, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Latvia and Armenia are all definitely still in what could be a very tight race for that final position.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\u2018Alice\u2019 by Veronica Fusaro also debuted live in London, and I thought it was a cool, relaxed performance with a great live vocal \u2013 there is definitely jury appeal for Switzerland. Beyond that, the most impressive responses in the venue were for Ukraine, Malta and Denmark, who all drew a lot of support. For me, though, I think Albania is delivering the best live \u2013 there is a huge drama and power to Alis\u2019s performance that I think gives it a great chance of scoring high in May.<\/p>\n

Grand Final
\n\"The<\/p>\n

The Top Five from The Model \u2013 21\/04\/26 (James Stephenson)<\/p>\n

This week\u2019s Top Five, then, returns to what we\u2019ve had in previous updates thanks to Israel\u2019s next re-model. The Model is now more confident about Finland than it has ever been: 397 points is the biggest projected total its had all season, and its 43 point lead over France is Finland\u2019s biggest as well.<\/p>\n

In my view, Finland\u2019s performance went down better in London than Amsterdam, although it still didn\u2019t bring the house down as I may have expected from a runaway favourite. But the data doesn\u2019t lie \u2013 \u2018Liekinheitin\u2019 has had a commanding lead in the betting odds since Linda and Pete won UMK. Finland also has one of the highest percentages in the Eurovision World poll ever. Make no mistake, this is by all accounts a major fan favourite.<\/p>\n

They benefit from Israel\u2019s televote power being slightly reduced in this simulation, with Finland now projected to win the public vote by 5 points. Another beneficiary is Greece, which has kept its place in the top valiantly despite Australia breathing down its neck. Further down, Ukraine (also re-modelled), Sweden, Romania and Czechia make up the current top ten, but the point margins are so tight in the midfield that there\u2019s no doubt this will all move about in Austria.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s been fascinating about going to the pre-parties through this lens is trying to match the data with what I see in front of me. And, in a few places, those things don\u2019t feel connected. I mentioned Sal Da Vinci last week, and the point remains: \u2018Per Sempre Si\u2019 is drawing a huge reaction everywhere it goes, but the betting odds still don\u2019t seem to be waking up to it. \u2018Viva, Moldova!\u2019 is going through the same kind of story.<\/p>\n

Why is that? One reason could be a reduction in interest. While they don\u2019t feature in The Model, streaming numbers for the Eurovision 2026 are notably down on previous years, and that lack of engagement may also be affecting the data. With less people potentially engaged, you get less diversity of thought \u2013 and, as a result, more locked in data that isn\u2019t as dynamic in the lead-up to the Contest.<\/p>\n

However, there is a simple solution for that, which is the Contest itself. Throughout these past few weeks, we\u2019ve heard the songs at length and heard them live, but nothing replicates the performance when you see it. I often talk about the disconnect between what engaged fans see and what people who just watch Eurovision on a Saturday night see. They see that performance blind \u2013 that impression is what truly matters.<\/p>\n

Once we see the staging, in the bright spotlights of the Wiener Stadthalle, we\u2019ll see what this Eurovision Song Contest really looks like. And, when we do, you\u2019ll see everyone adjust their expectations, and The Model will begin to hone in on this year\u2019s result. For now, though, the lay of the land appears clear \u2013 and when it comes to this year, Finland is still the target everyone else is aiming for.<\/p>\n

\"Full<\/p>\n

Full Split Results from The Model \u2013 21\/04\/26 (James Stephenson \/ DouzePoints.app)<\/p>\n

With The Model\u2019s latest update, Finland remains in front \u2013 but that is set to keep changing. Next week, we\u2019ll have our final update of April before the Eurovision calendar almost reaches game time. It\u2019ll also be the final update before each of the 35 acts head to Austria to begin rehearsing for Eurovision 2026 \u2013 and we get more information about how each of the performances is shaping up.<\/p>\n

Remember, The Model will make weekly projections from now until the contest, updating with new information throughout. If you don\u2019t want to miss any regular weekly update, read The Model on ESC Insight every Monday from now until the Eurovision Song Contest 2026.<\/p>\n

Finland\u2019s in front \u2013 but could someone catch them next week? See you then for the next update from The Model.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Model, a Eurovision Song Contest prediction tool, continues to project Finland as the winner of Eurovision 2026…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":543940,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[96,391,56,54,55],"class_list":{"0":"post-543939","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-tv","8":"tag-entertainment","9":"tag-tv","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom","12":"tag-unitedkingdom"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/543939","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=543939"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/543939\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/543940"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=543939"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=543939"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=543939"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}