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<\/p>\nOil markets are on edge as delayed U.S.-Iran talks and Trump\u2019s warning on the ceasefire raise the risk of renewed conflict, with Brent crude potentially spiking back toward $100 per barrel.<\/p>\n
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Oil Whiplash, Gas Freefall: LNG Shrugs Off Hormuz Chaos<\/p>\n
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– Crude oil prices have spent most of March-April seesawing up and down, reacting to Iran\u2019s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Donald Trump\u2019s Truth Social posts. Global LNG prices have been declining for the past four weeks, defying upward swings in other commodities.<\/p>\n
– Northeast Asia\u2019s benchmark for liquefied natural gas, the JKM marker, dipped to $15 per MMBtu today, the lowest level since the US-Iran conflict broke out in late February-early March.<\/p>\n
– Plunging demand is the main reason underlying the pricing weakness in LNG, with total Asian imports expected to fall to 19.2 million tonnes this month, the lowest monthly reading since April 2020 and down 11% from a year ago.<\/p>\n
– The loss of 13 mtpa of Qatari liquefaction capacity for the next 1-2 years is also weighing on term buyers, with Qatar-dependent countries like Pakistan stopping LNG imports completely after Iran\u2019s drone attacks on Ras Laffan.<\/p>\n
– LNG buyers\u2019 hopes were further dampened after this weekend\u2019s \u2018free passage\u2019 proclamations turned out to be false<\/a> and all the five LNG carriers that sought to transit the Hormuz were ordered by the IRGC to turn back.\u00a0<\/p>\n Market Movers<\/p>\n – UK oil major BP (NYSE:BP) is investigating <\/a>an incident at its 240,000 b\/d Cherry Point refinery in the northwestern state of Washington, following a reported explosion at the site that left three workers injured.<\/p>\n – Italy’s energy giant ENI (BIT:ENI) reported a major gas discovery offshore Indonesia, reportedly finding 5 trillion cubic feet of gas and 300 million barrels of condensate with its Geliga-1<\/a> exploration well.<\/p>\n – Brazilian state oil firm Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) has agreed <\/a>to acquire a stake in its fourth offshore block in Sao Tome and Principe, marking its first deepwater market entry in West Africa with a 75% operating stake in Block 3.<\/p>\n – Gary Pedersen, the new chief executive of global trading firm Gunvor, announced the Geneva-based trader is looking to buy US upstream and downstream assets, embarking on a US pivot after being called<\/a> ‘the Kremlin’s puppet last year by US President Trump.<\/p>\n – Serbia\u2019s only refiner NIS received another US sanctions waiver <\/a>allowing it to continue operations at the 100,000 b\/d Pancevo refinery until June 16, despite still being majority-owned by Russia\u2019s Gazprom Neft.<\/p>\n Tuesday, April 21, 2026<\/p>\n The lack of progress in US-Iran talks and their continuous postponement (now to Wednesday) are keeping the oil market on tenterhooks, with Trump\u2019s Tuesday comments about \u2018not wanting to extend the truce further\u2019 sending another wave of anxiety across market watchers. Trump\u2019s two-week ceasefire deadline runs out Wednesday evening, with a potential upward spike towards $100 per barrel firmly on the cards for ICE Brent.<\/p>\n US Finalizes Third SPR Release Since Iran War Start. The US Department of Energy announced it had loaned 26.03 mln barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve<\/a> to domestic refiners, including ExxonMobil, Marathon, and BP, taking the total volume of oil borrowed to 80 mln barrels.<\/p>\n Russia to Halt Kazakhstan’s Pipeline Flows. Russia is set to halt all pipeline<\/a> exports from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline from May 1, halting some 50,000 b\/d of supplies, marking yet another escalation in the ongoing struggle over blocked Russian pipeline flows to Europe.<\/p>\n Algeria Launches New Exploration Drive. Algeria’s upstream regulator Alnaft has launched<\/a> a new oil licensing round for the North African producer, the 2nd auction of five planned up to 2028, that seeks to surpass the limited success of the 2025 round, where only one block received more than one bid.<\/p>\n Trump Extends Russian Crude Waiver. The Trump administration renewed<\/a> a waiver allowing third countries to buy Russian crude and refined products currently at sea for another month, through May 16, with the US Treasury citing the need to ‘ensure oil is available to those who need it.<\/p>\n China Drops Transportation Fuels Caps. China’s economic planner NDRC, slashed<\/a> domestic retail gasoline and diesel price caps this week, marking its first price cut since the US-Iran conflict began, as Beijing brought runaway prices under control by banning product exports and forcing higher runs.<\/p>\n Shell Continues to Face Environmentalists in Court. UK-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) is facing<\/a> a new court case in the Netherlands after climate activist Friends of the Earth demanded it halt investments in new oil and gas projects and return to its pre-2025 emission targets.<\/p>\n Drone Strikes Force Russia to Cut Production. According to Reuters, Russia was compelled to curb its crude oil production this month by some 300-400,000 b\/d after Ukraine\u2019s repeated drone strikes on key loading ports and seasonal refinery maintenance put pressure on the country\u2019s storage.<\/p>\n Trump Rejects Energy Chief\u2019s Gas Price Timeline. US President Donald Trump dismissed<\/a> Energy Secretary Chris Wright\u2019s view that gasoline prices may not fall below $3 per gallon until early 2027, insisting that he\u2019s \u2018totally wrong\u2019 about it and that prices will drop \u2018as soon as the Iran war ends\u2019.<\/p>\n Overland Shipments Expand as Gulf Exports Stall. Iraq has reopened<\/a> the Rabia border crossing with Syria for the first time in over a decade as state oil marketer SOMO seeks to export some 650,000 metric tonnes of fuel oil during the closure of the Hormuz Strait via overland routes in Syria.<\/p>\n Beijing Softens Policy on Product Export Ban. Even though refined product exports from China fell to 320,000 tonnes in the first half of April, an almost 85% drop year-over-year, the country\u2019s refiners still export transportation fuels to Southeast Asia and Australia, despite Beijing\u2019s alleged<\/a> export ban.<\/p>\n Kuwait Declares Force Majeure on Oil Exports. Kuwait\u2019s national oil firm KPC has declared<\/a> force majeure on its sales of crude oil and petroleum products, citing the lack of available ships for loading and damage from Iranian drone attacks on its refineries, having loaded only 3 tankers in April so far.\u00a0<\/p>\n Seoul Launches Naphtha Subsidies. South Korea has pledged<\/a> to subsidize the cost of the country\u2019s naphtha imports, allocating $458 million to cover contracts signed over April-June 2026 to ease rising feedstock costs for the country\u2019s petrochemical industries, 70% reliant on external inflows.<\/p>\n Norway Output Beats Forecasts in March. Norway\u2019s combined<\/a> oil and gas production jumped by almost 4% year-over-year to 4.35 million boe\/d last month, beating the country\u2019s Offshore Directorate\u2019s own forecasts by 2.8% as upstream firms in the North Sea maximized crude output.<\/p>\n US Seizes Iranian Oil Tanker. The US Central Command reported<\/a> the boarding and seizure of a VLCC in the Indian ocean, claiming the 2003-built Tifani was carrying Iranian oil in defiance of US sanctions and that it was stateless (the ship\u2019s commercial manager is listed at a WeWork office in Mumbai).<\/p>\n By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com<\/p>\n