\n However, it declared that, in spite of this revision, \u201cgrowth expectations remain positive over the medium term\u201d, with Scotland\u2019s gross domestic product growth forecast at 1% in 2027 and 1.1% in 2028. Fraser of Allander had projected growth of 1.2% in Scotland in 2027 in its February forecasts.\n<\/p>\n
\n The think-tank said: \u201cWhile recent indicators suggest the economy has maintained momentum, experience from previous shocks highlights that the full effects of geopolitical disruption often emerge gradually, as pressures feed through energy markets and prices.\u201d\n<\/p>\n
\n Read more\n<\/p>\n
\n Mairi Spowage, director of Fraser of Allander, said: \u201cWhile recent indicators have encouraged a more optimistic narrative around Scotland\u2019s growth prospects, it would be premature to assume this momentum is secure.\n<\/p>\n
\n \u201cThe conflict in the Middle East reminds us how quickly geopolitical risk can translate into economic pressure, particularly through energy markets.\u201d\n<\/p>\n
\n She added: \u201cAt a time when UK inflation had begun to stabilise and the economy was showing signs of recovery after several challenging years, this renewed shock means the outlook remains highly uncertain, with many of the potential impacts yet to be fully reflected in the data.\n<\/p>\n
\n \u201cThe experience following Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 should remain fresh in our minds. That period demonstrated how prolonged disruption to oil and gas markets can drive inflationary pressures, tighten financial conditions, and ultimately weigh on economic growth. The lesson for Scotland is not that a downturn is inevitable, but that today\u2019s positive outlook must be approached with caution.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"However, it declared that, in spite of this revision, \u201cgrowth expectations remain positive over the medium term\u201d, with…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":544472,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[84,1294,56,54,55],"class_list":{"0":"post-544471","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom","12":"tag-unitedkingdom"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/544471","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=544471"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/544471\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/544472"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=544471"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=544471"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=544471"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}