Labour is on track for its worst local election performance, data analysed by the Guardian shows, in a blow that will pile further pressure on Keir Starmer\u2019s leadership.<\/p>\n
Barring a drastic change in fortunes, Labour\u2019s vote-share could fall to historic lows across elections for councils in England and devolved parliaments in Wales and Scotland<\/a> on 7 May, with big gains for Reform, the Greens and nationalist parties, according to recent polling.<\/p>\n The collapse in support is particularly existential in the race for the Welsh parliament, the Senedd, which Labour<\/a> has dominated since its creation in 1999.<\/p>\n Polling shows Labour\u2019s vote share falling by more than half in Wales<\/a>, enough to push the party into third place, with Reform and Plaid Cymru vying for first.<\/p>\n 0% <\/p>\n In Wales, Labour faces a crash in its vote…<\/p>\n 0% <\/p>\n …while in Scotland, Labour’s long-term decline is set to continue<\/p>\n Guardian graphic. *Note: Labour\u2019s vote share in council elections is taken from the BBC\u2019s Projected National Vote series, a projection based on ward-level voting figures in local elections, developed by John Curtice and Stephen Fisher. Polling is based on average of general election voting intention surveys in past month. For Wales and Scotland, we have taken an average of polls conducted since January 2026 due to lower publication frequency<\/p>\n Labour\u2019s long-term decline in Scotland is expected to continue, with the Scottish National party likely to remain in power in Holyrood and Reform headed for second place.<\/p>\n In England, Labour faces several threats \u2013 from Reform, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats<\/a> and independents \u2013 across 136 council races, including in its strongholds in London and the north.<\/p>\n While reliable polling across the council races is hard to come by, the recent fall in Labour\u2019s national poll rating, alongside rises for other parties, is leading experts to expect \u201cunprecedented losses\u201d.<\/p>\n Stephen Fisher, a professor of political sociology at the University of Oxford, has estimated Labour will lose 1,900 councillors on 7 May \u2013 74% of the number of seats the party currently holds that are up for re-election.<\/p>\n Such a result would be the worst local election performance for any prime minister since comparable data began.<\/p>\n Guardian graphic. Source: Historic figures via Election Centre, House of Commons Library and BBC. 2026 estimate via Stephen Fisher, based on change in party polling since previous local elections. Councillor losses are based on change since last elections.<\/p>\n Fisher estimates Reform will gain 2,260 councillors \u2013 which would triple the party\u2019s local representation in England<\/a> overnight \u2013 while the Greens will gain 450 and the Liberal Democrats 200.<\/p>\n The Conservatives<\/a> are also set for a drubbing, with a net loss of 1,010 councillors under Fisher\u2019s estimates, in a clear sign of voter dissatisfaction with Britain\u2019s two main parties.<\/p>\n \u201cReform gains at last year\u2019s local elections amounted to a record-breaking 41% of the seats up for election,\u201d Fisher said.<\/p>\n \u201cNow they have extended their polling lead, Reform should do even better this year if they can maintain the same conversion rate for opinion poll ratings into council seat gains.<\/p>\n \u201cIf they can, then the consequences are enormous losses for the Conservatives and unprecedented losses for Labour.\u201d<\/p>\n A catastrophe of this scale for Labour could reignite the prospect of a leadership challenge against Starmer, who has continued to come under pressure over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador.<\/p>\n In recent weeks several Labour ministers have played down<\/a> the possibility of Starmer being removed because of any poor performance in the local elections, citing the international crisis over the Iran war.<\/p>\n