A research team from the Danish and Dutch Meteorological Institutes, the University of British Columbia and the University of Canterbury, used satellite data to study the ice mass of Antarctica since 2002. Initially, they saw a net annual loss of between 90 and 142 gigatonnes of ice from the continent \u2013 the higher value is roughly equivalent to the volume of water in Lake Tahoe.<\/p>\n
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\t\t\t\t\t\t\tUse the slider to see how the net increase of mass on Antarctica has accelerated since 2020. <\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n The project used observations by NASA and DLR\u2019s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (Grace) mission. By 2016, the satellite\u2019s data began to reveal a slowdown in net ice loss.<\/p>\n According to the study\u2019s lead author, Marlen Kolbe, this slowdown switched to a net gain at a rate of roughly 68 gigatonnes per year, between 2020 and 2024. As of late 2025, there is no clear indication of a return to net mass loss, though whether the trend will continue or level off remains unclear and will also depend on changes in dynamical discharge.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat makes this remarkable is that the ice sheet isn’t losing less ice \u2013 it’s actually losing more. Ice discharge by iceberg calving has increased by nearly 100 gigatonnes per year compared to the previous two decades. The snowfall surge has simply outpaced it \u2013 for now,\u201d explained Marlen.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\tDespite accelerating loss of ice through glacier melt, exceptionally heavy snowfall in recent years is adding to the mass of the icy continent.<\/a><\/p>\n \t\tWhy Antarctica has seen increased snowfall<\/p>\n One of the factors influencing the increased volume of snowfall over the Antarctic continent is the transport of moisture in the atmosphere, particularly through atmospheric rivers, which carry enormous amounts of water vapour over thousands of kilometres. The researchers analysed the atmospheric rivers that reach Antarctica and found a pattern change: the \u2018rivers\u2019 were more frequent and more intense from 2020 onwards. Helped by strong westerly winds, more water vapour was transported over certain parts of the continent. Satellite data show the strongest mass gains were over East Antarctica (specifically Wilkes Land), Queen Maud Land, as well as the Antarctic Peninsula.<\/p>\n Ruth Mottram, climate scientist at the Danish Meteorological Institute and study co-author noted, \u201cA warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. The physics is well understood \u2013 it’s one of the most famous equations in climate science, the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship: for every degree of temperature increase, you get a 7% increase in moisture content in the atmosphere.\u201d<\/p>\n The study also tested the theory of whether a reduction of sea ice \u2013 less ice means more evaporation from the sea \u2013 was a factor behind the increased snowfall. The team conducted experiments using a high-resolution regional climate model driven by the ERA5 reanalysis<\/a>, which assimilates satellite sea ice concentration records, including those from the ESA Climate Change Initiative. Their experiments indicate that sea ice loss may account for about 11% of the winter snowfall increase, and around 3% in summer.<\/p>\n Climate models have projected an increase in the mass of the Antarctic Ice Sheet due to enhanced snowfall, although warmer oceans are also expected to drive ice loss from below. The study shows how both processes are happening simultaneously and investigates the dynamics surrounding this delicate tipping point. Specifically, if the floating ice shelves around Antarctica continue to get thinner and break up, the glaciers they are holding back will themselves accelerate and release even more ice into the ocean.<\/p>\n Ruth Mottram noted, \u201cAntarctica is finely balanced right now. Yes, the snowfall increase has pushed the mass budget into positive territory, but the flow of ice into the ocean is also accelerating. A few years with fewer atmospheric rivers could easily tip things back the other way.\u201d<\/p>\n \t\t\t\tWhy does Antarctica\u2019s delicate balance matter?<\/p>\n The Antarctic Ice Sheet consists of enough frozen water to potentially raise global sea levels by around 58 m if it were to melt entirely. As the largest freshwater reservoir on Earth, any change in its mass balance has far-reaching consequences \u2013 for future sea level rise and coastlines, ocean circulation and the global climate system as a whole.<\/p>\n It was previously thought that Antarctica would be slow to respond to climate change, compared with the Greenland Ice Sheet. More recent data suggest the southern hemisphere ice sheet has far more in common with Greenland than was previously observed, with evidence of rising temperatures, more melting and iceberg calving, as well as a reduction of sea ice.<\/p>\n