{"id":562319,"date":"2026-05-02T11:39:14","date_gmt":"2026-05-02T11:39:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/562319\/"},"modified":"2026-05-02T11:39:14","modified_gmt":"2026-05-02T11:39:14","slug":"the-tipping-point-what-happens-when-deaths-outnumber-births-population","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/562319\/","title":{"rendered":"The tipping point: what happens when deaths outnumber births? | Population"},"content":{"rendered":"

In Japan, there are now companies that specialise in cleaning the apartments of elderly people who have died alone and gone undiscovered for weeks or months, while adult incontinence pads have outstripped nappy sales<\/a> for more than a decade. In Italy, depopulating villages are selling homes for \u20ac1<\/a> to attract new residents and keep services running. In the UK, falling pupil numbers are already closing schools and classrooms<\/a> in parts of London.<\/p>\n

These are not isolated curiosities, but signs of a broader shift taking place across much of the developed world. \u201cIn the EU in 2024, 21 of 27 countries had more deaths than births,\u201d said Prof Sarah Harper, the director of the Oxford Institute of Population<\/a> Ageing. Across Asia and the Americas, too \u2013 from Japan and South Korea, to Cuba and Uruguay \u2013 many countries are seeing the same pattern.<\/p>\n

It reflects two long-running demographic changes: people are living longer, and the average number of children they are having \u2013 something demographers refer to as fertility \u2013 is falling.<\/p>\n

In the UK, the latest projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggest that deaths will outnumber births<\/a> every year from 2026 onwards, driven by falling fertility and the large, postwar \u201cbaby boom\u201d generation living longer than previous generations, but now reaching later life. The population is still expected to grow, but more slowly than previously forecast, peaking at about 72.5 million in 2054 before beginning to gradually decline. Earlier projections had suggested growth would continue until 2096.<\/p>\n

A graphic showing UK deaths are expected to outnumber births from 2026<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cAlthough the point where there are more deaths than births is emotionally significant, it\u2019s part of a long process,\u201d said Dr Paul Morland, a demographer and author of No One Left: Why the World Needs More Children. Life expectancy has been rising since the late 18th century, while fertility has been declining since the late 19th century, aside from a brief mid-20th century rebound.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere comes a point when these two lines cross,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

The reasons people are having fewer children are complex. A fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is typically needed for a population to replace itself over time. The UK rate is 1.44.<\/p>\n

\u201cRecent fertility declines in the UK have been especially marked in those under 30, indicating some postponement,\u201d said Prof Melanie Channon, of the University of Bath. \u201cHowever, even accounting for the trend towards later parenthood, fertility is still declining.\u201d<\/p>\n

A graphic showing UK births projected to stabilise below replacement level <\/a><\/p>\n

These changes are already being felt. \u201cIn the short run, those in sectors that serve children \u2013 maternity care, schools, childminders \u2013 and new parents are feeling the falling number of births,\u201d said Dr Bernice Kuang, of the University of Southampton. Falling enrolment is forcing some schools to close, while businesses such as soft play centres and childminders are struggling. Even midwifery training is affected, as students must attend a minimum number of births.<\/p>\n

The effects of such struggles extend beyond children themselves. \u201cWorking parents \u2013 disproportionately mothers \u2013 may have to leave the labour force or reduce their hours,\u201d Kuang said, with implications for the economy and gender equality.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, longer lifespans are contributing to a gradual \u201cgreying\u201d of the population, with consequences of its own. As populations age, Morland says, they tend to become more risk-averse, with investment flowing into safer assets rather than innovation, while a smaller, older workforce may be less entrepreneurial and able to sustain economic growth.<\/p>\n

A graphic showing the UK population shifting towards older age profile <\/a><\/p>\n

The pressures on public finances are also stark, with fewer workers supporting rising spending on pensions, health and social care. Older people require far higher levels of support, placing a growing burden on younger workers.<\/p>\n

At the same time, consumption patterns are shifting. Younger people tend to spend more on goods and appliances, whereas older people spend more on care and other services that cannot easily be automated or offshored. \u201cJust as your labour force is drying up, you have more demands for local hands-on labour,\u201d Morland said.<\/p>\n

A graphic showing the UK\u2019s pension-age population projected to grow faster than other age groups<\/a><\/p>\n

Many developed nations face similar pressures. What is striking, however, is how these trends have spread beyond the richest economies. In many middle- and lower-income countries, fertility is falling despite more limited economic development. Parts of Latin America, as well as countries such as Jamaica and Thailand, and states in India including Tamil Nadu and Kerala, have fertility rates comparable with \u2013 or lower than \u2013 those in Britain.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are countries that will grow old before they grow rich,\u201d said Morland.<\/p>\n

A woman carrying a baby on her back in Chennai, Tamil Nadu. Photograph: Idrees Mohammed\/EPA<\/p>\n

All this marks a shift in how demographic change unfolds. Historically, falling birthrates followed rising incomes, urbanisation and education \u2013 the so-called demographic transition. But now fertility is declining more rapidly than economic development, driven in part by changing aspirations and social norms.<\/p>\n

Even so, the pattern is not uniform. Israel remains unusual in maintaining much higher birth rates \u2013 about 3 children per woman \u2013 suggesting that culture may play a role. The UK, too, may be more resilient than some of its neighbours. \u201cThere is a very strong and persistent two-child norm in the UK, which means our fertility rate is slightly more buoyant than some other European countries where single children are more accepted,\u201d said Channon.<\/p>\n

In parts of sub-Saharan Africa, fertility remains high and populations are growing rapidly, even as mortality declines. In parts of central Asia, meanwhile, economies have grown without the same decline in births.<\/p>\n

Migration also plays a crucial role. While deaths may outnumber births, the UK\u2019s population is still expected to grow for now, largely because of net inward migration, albeit at lower levels than previously assumed.<\/p>\n

Demographic projections are not destiny. They do not account for unexpected shocks or policy shifts, and migration is particularly difficult to predict. As the ONS puts it: \u201cProjections are not forecasts.\u201d<\/p>\n

A graphic showing migration could remain only source of UK population growth<\/a><\/p>\n

If the direction of travel is clear, the question becomes not so much whether demographic change can be reversed, but how societies respond to it.<\/p>\n

Some changes are already \u201cbaked in\u201d, reflecting what demographers call population momentum \u2013 the way large generations moving through populations continue to shape their size and age structure. \u201cPopulation growth will slow down, but it will be a long time before it reverses,\u201d said Kuang, pointing to China, where decades of low fertility have only recently translated into population decline.<\/p>\n

This means there is time to act. Morland argues that countries with low fertility rates face difficult trade-offs between economic growth, migration and birthrates \u2013 though others suggest the picture is more complex.<\/p>\n

Rather than trying to \u201cfix\u201d falling birthrates, policymakers should prepare for an older population \u2013 from rethinking how old age support is funded, to enabling people to remain in work for longer. \u201cSimply telling people to have more babies is unlikely to work,\u201d said Kuang.<\/p>\n

These changes may need to be far-reaching. As Harper, the author of the forthcoming book Ageing Societies: Risk and Resilience, puts it: \u201cThe main challenge is that 20th-century labour markets, pension systems, family norms, healthcare institutions and long-term care arrangements were built under demographic conditions that no longer prevail.\u201d<\/p>\n

Adapting to longer lives will therefore require rethinking how people work, retire and are supported in later life. \u201cThe traditional linear life course \u2013 education, continuous employment, abrupt retirement \u2013 is increasingly obsolete,\u201d said Harper.<\/p>\n

Instead, longer lives may involve more flexible patterns of work, retraining and phased retirement, alongside efforts to tackle ageism and support lifelong learning, as well as redesigning homes, transport and public spaces to support independence and connection in later life.<\/p>\n

\u2018Simply telling people to have more babies is unlikely to work,\u2019 says Dr Bernice Kuang, from the University of Southampton. Photograph: Rawpixel\/Getty Images\/iStockphoto<\/p>\n

And even if telling people to have more children is unlikely to work, there may be ways of supporting them to have the children they want. \u201cEveryone should have the right to decide how many children they have, and when,\u201d said Channon. Yet, many are unable to do so: in three-quarters of surveyed countries, more than 40% of women end their reproductive lives with fewer children than they would like, reflecting economic insecurity, work-family conflict and wider social constraints.<\/p>\n

Policies that support families, particularly affordable childcare and parental leave, can make a difference, said Channon, but are more effective at helping people realise their intentions than dramatically raising birthrates.<\/p>\n

She and others also call for more comprehensive reproductive health education in schools, noting that \u201ccurricula often don\u2019t include important topics such as fertility, preconception health, pregnancy and miscarriage\u201d, which might impact young people\u2019s ability to make informed choices, Channon said.<\/p>\n

Migration can help ease labour shortages in the short term, as those who move for work are typically young and economically active, but it is not a magic bullet. Migrants also age, meaning a fixed level of migration would not be enough to keep pace with reduced fertility and an ageing population.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd I am also wary of the ethics of encouraging migrants to come to the UK solely to fill labour gaps while making a path to settlement, or any kind of viable long-term future here, extremely difficult,\u201d said Kuang.<\/p>\n

Others point to wider ethical questions, including the impact on countries that lose skilled workers to richer economies.<\/p>\n

The good news is that demographic change rarely arrives with a jolt. It unfolds gradually until its effects are visible everywhere \u2013 in classrooms, in health and social care, and in the shifting relationships between generations.<\/p>\n

The question now is whether those changes continue to accumulate quietly, or whether governments and societies begin to confront them more openly, and work on ways to adapt.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In Japan, there are now companies that specialise in cleaning the apartments of elderly people who have died…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":562320,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[59,57,58,50,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-562319","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-united-kingdom","tag-gb","tag-great-britain","tag-greatbritain","tag-news","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/562319","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=562319"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/562319\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/562320"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=562319"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=562319"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=562319"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}