{"id":570907,"date":"2026-05-07T10:51:18","date_gmt":"2026-05-07T10:51:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/570907\/"},"modified":"2026-05-07T10:51:18","modified_gmt":"2026-05-07T10:51:18","slug":"why-pensioners-will-soon-outnumber-children-the-irish-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/570907\/","title":{"rendered":"Why pensioners will soon outnumber children \u2013 The Irish Times"},"content":{"rendered":"

The question Gareth Hetherington often gets asked is whether artificial intelligence (AI)<\/a> will take away people\u2019s jobs.<\/p>\n

Since the emergence of figures suggesting Northern Ireland<\/a>\u2019s population is about to peak, the economist says the bigger worry is a projected drop in the 18-65 working age population.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen I look at the demographic data, the question I ask is: \u2018Will AI come quickly enough to take the jobs that we don\u2019t have people to do?\u2019\u201d adds Hetherington, director of Ulster University<\/a>\u2019s economic policy centre.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat that means for the working age population is the need to embrace AI and become more AI literate.\u201d<\/p>\n

Falling birth rates, people living longer and migration changes are among the factors driving the latest projections by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (Nisra).<\/p>\n

Pensioners will outnumber the number of children living in Northern Ireland by next year, according to statisticians.<\/p>\n

\"NISource: NISRA \u2502 Graphic: Paul Scott <\/p>\n

Deaths are projected to exceed the number of births by mid-2030 \u2013 one year earlier than previously calculated.<\/p>\n

The population is to peak at 1.94 million by 2031 before it starts to fall, dropping to 1.91 million by 2049.<\/p>\n

Concerns about the \u201creverse\u201d in the North\u2019s demographic trends have sparked warnings about the impact on healthcare and funding of public services.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf they don\u2019t start planning for this, then there\u2019s going to be an even bigger crisis in our public services, particularly schools and health services before the end of the decade,\u201d says the former head of the Northern Ireland civil service, David Sterling.<\/p>\n

Recent reports have consistently shown that the North is the \u201cfastest ageing part of the UK\u201d, he says.<\/p>\n

Spiralling waiting lists, workforce shortages \u2013 particularly in nursing \u2013 and access to GP services are among the challenges that have dogged the North\u2019s health service for more than a decade.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs you get older you have more co-morbidities, you have all sorts of health issues, you also require more at-home care, social care or more frequent visits to hospital,\u201d says Ian Shuttleworth, professor of population and migration studies at Queen\u2019s University<\/a> Belfast\u2019s school of natural and built environment.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe obvious thing that\u2019s going to happen with an ageing population is increasing pressure on health services and social care more widely.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is actually happening now on top of a funding crisis where Northern Ireland can\u2019t even seem to run itself with the current UK funding level \u2013 so where it\u2019s going to be in 20 years\u2019 time, I would hesitate to think.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"CutsCuts to community support groups and limited public transport are among the challenges facing older people. Photograph: Charles McQuillan\/Getty Images <\/p>\n

Over the next 25 years, the over-65 population is projected to grow by 44.7 per cent; the over-85s will more than double.<\/p>\n

The demographic shift means \u201cwe need more money\u201d by \u201ceither increasing taxes or faster economic growth\u201d, according to Shuttleworth.<\/p>\n

\u201cOr it means we need to find other ways to deliver social care and healthcare.\u201d<\/p>\n

Research on social isolation facing older people in more rural communities is soon to be published by Queen\u2019s.<\/p>\n

About 5 per cent of pensioners live alone in the North, which equates to just under 95,000 people. They are predominantly women.<\/p>\n

Cuts to community support groups and limited public transport are among the challenges facing elderly vulnerable people living alone, some of whom have life limiting illnesses, according to the study.<\/p>\n

\"TheThe potential divergence between populations either side of the Border could lead to \u2018very different social care and healthcare conditions moving forward\u2019. Photograph: Charles McQuillan\/Getty Images <\/p>\n

\u201cConnectedness is one of the most critical factors in preserving the health and quality of life of older people; it\u2019s all those services \u2013 their social groups, the networks \u2013 that have been cut,\u201d says lead Queen\u2019s researcher Estelle Lowry, a health geographer.<\/p>\n

Transport was an issue that \u201ckept coming up time and time again\u201d in their focus groups. Almost half of pensioners living alone did not have access to their own car and were reliant on public transport.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think transport problems were compounded by the health and social care challenges,\u201d Lowry adds.<\/p>\n

Plummeting birth rates are not unique to Northern Ireland; it\u2019s happening \u201call over the world\u201d with women having fewer children and later in life, says Shuttleworth.<\/p>\n

Traditional high-birth counties such as Italy and Spain now have some of the lowest fertility rates in Europe.<\/p>\n

Stormont\u2019s Department of Education has already warned that a drop in pupil numbers could lead to school closures over the next decade.<\/p>\n

Such decisions will be \u201cpolitically difficult\u201d, according to Hetherington.<\/p>\n

[\u00a0One in five desks are empty in Northern Ireland\u2019s classrooms: Pragmatism is neededOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve gone through many years of a growing, younger age population; therefore the school estate had to grow to reflect that,\u201d he says. \u201cThat\u2019s in reverse now.<\/p>\n

\u201cObviously closing schools will be unpopular, particularly in smaller rural communities but increasingly those schools are going to be unsustainable and will need to be closed.\u201d<\/p>\n

Pension contributions among the under-40s may also need to increase in order to fund services.<\/p>\n

The other option for the North\u2019s younger workforce is to \u201cwork longer\u201d, says Hetherington.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are going to be in a situation where significantly more people are drawing the pension and we\u2019re going to have less people working and paying taxes to fund those pensions.\u201d<\/p>\n

Relatively high levels of immigration in recent years are projected to fall in the North while \u201csignificant population growth\u201d is projected in the Republic, Nisra notes.<\/p>\n

The potential growing divergence between populations either side of the Border could lead to \u201cvery different social care and healthcare conditions moving forward\u201d, according to Shuttleworth.<\/p>\n

The Queen\u2019s academic grew up in Barnetby-le-Wold, a village in Lincolnshire in England, and moved to Belfast in 1990.<\/p>\n

\u201cMy dad was alive until last year. He was 97. I used to go over quite a lot to see him. I know if I wanted to get a doctor for him, I could ring up and he could get a phone call the same day.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"IncreasedIncreased migration may be needed to address the North’s future healthcare workforce shortage. Photograph: Liam McBurney\/PA Wire <\/p>\n

Shuttleworth has spent four years on the waiting list for a knee replacement after breaking his leg and has to use a wheelchair for long distances; there is a six-month waiting list for the operation in England.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe urgent waiting list was three years,\u201d he says, referring to Northern Ireland.<\/p>\n

If the North\u2019s working age population shrinks in coming decades, there will be a need for increased migration to address the healthcare workforce shortage, argues Hetherington.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor family reasons, I\u2019ve had to make many hospital visits over the past few years and it\u2019s apparent very quickly how reliant Northern Ireland\u2019s health service is on migrant labour,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

\u201cMy personal opinion is if the economic costs of constraining migration become more apparent, public attitudes to migration may change and we see higher levels of migration than projected.\u201d<\/p>\n

Stormont decision makers need to \u201cshift\u201d their focus, says Shuttleworth.<\/p>\n

He criticises the \u201clocalism\u201d in the North\u2019s politics.<\/p>\n

Political rows over \u201cflags and statues\u201d are diverting attention away from \u201cthe major long-term strategic problem facing Northern Ireland \u2013 that is demographic change,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

[\u00a0Irish unity: Why \u2018others\u2019 and \u2018neithers\u2019 matter, North and SouthOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n

\u201cIf we\u2019re struggling now, and if we get lots of people who are needing more care, intensive care, more health access, I don\u2019t see how the system is going to manage if it continues as it is at present.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hetherington agrees the \u201cstatus quo is not an option\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut rather than frame it as a really bleak outlook, there should be more optimism,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

\u201cPeople are living longer, this is good news. But it isn\u2019t just about living 10 years longer, it\u2019s about having 10 years longer of a healthy life.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat will facilitate people working longer.\u201d<\/p>\n

A \u201crelentless focus\u201d is required to grow the economy and embracing new technologies such as AI is a \u201cbig part of the solution\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs an economist, AI is something that has been front of mind for the last of couple of years.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn simple terms, AI won\u2019t take your job \u2013 but someone using AI will. So it may as well be you.\u201d<\/p>\n

[\u00a0Ireland\u2019s ticking time bomb: our changing demographicsOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n

More centralised healthcare services are required; experts have warned over the past 20 years that the duplication of services across multiple acute hospitals is not sustainable.<\/p>\n

\u201cYes, that means having to travel further for health services but there are better outcomes,\u201d says Hetherington.<\/p>\n

\u201cAt the minute, it seems to me the public would rather die in a hospital five miles from home than recover in a hospital 25 miles from home.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf people just expect and want services at their doorstep, that\u2019s not sustainable.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe focus is currently on the here and now, we\u2019re not looking to the future. That needs to change.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The question Gareth Hetherington often gets asked is whether artificial intelligence (AI) will take away people\u2019s jobs. Since…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":570908,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[43],"tags":[733,1294,102,2960,1647,9184,56,51062,54,55],"class_list":["post-570907","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-healthcare","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-economy","tag-health","tag-healthcare","tag-northern-ireland","tag-queens-university","tag-uk","tag-ulster-university","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/570907","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=570907"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/570907\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/570908"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=570907"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=570907"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=570907"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}