{"id":571955,"date":"2026-05-07T23:35:11","date_gmt":"2026-05-07T23:35:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/571955\/"},"modified":"2026-05-07T23:35:11","modified_gmt":"2026-05-07T23:35:11","slug":"elections-2026-live-counting-under-way-after-votes-in-england-scotland-and-wales-may-2026-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/571955\/","title":{"rendered":"Elections 2026 live: counting under way after votes in England, Scotland and Wales | May 2026 elections"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Analysis: results set to have transformative impact on British politics<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Andrew_Sparrow,_R.png\" alt=\"Andrew Sparrow\" class=\"dcr-lysqes\"\/>Andrew Sparrow<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">In case you missed it on Thursday, my colleague Andrew Sparrow wrote this excellent guide to why these elections could be so transformative for British politics:<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">We don\u2019t have any results yet, but unless all the opinion polls, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.markpack.org.uk\/174682\/council-by-election-results-scorecard-2025-2026\/\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">all the council byelections that have taken place over the past 12 months<\/a>, and all the parliamentary byelections that have taken place since the general election, turn out to be completely unreliable guides to how people vote today, then we already have a rough idea of what the outcome will look like. It will be enough to transform the political landscape of Britain \u2013 in at least seven ways.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">1) The full arrival of five-party politics in England<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Two-party politics has been in decline in British politics for more than half a century. Its high point was in 1951, when 97% of people who voted in the UK general election opted for either the Conservative party or Labour. In recognition of the Lib Dems, people used to talk about England having a two-and-a-half party system. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/uk\/scotland\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Scotland<\/a> and Wales have had strong nationalist parties for years, and Reform UK easily won the English local elections last year. Under Zack Polanski, the Greens have now been soaring in the polls and this is the first English election where talking about \u201cmain\u201d parties and \u201cminor\u201d parties no longer makes sense. (How can it, when the \u201cminor\u201d parties with least parliamentary representation, Reform UK and the Greens, have been the two best-performing parties in some polls?) Those terms describe the parliamentary situation but not politics outside, where five parties are competitive across England and it is probably more useful to think in terms of legacy parties and disruptor parties.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">2) Reform UK\u2019s emergence as a GB-wide party<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">When Nigel Farage was leading Ukip, it looked like an English nationalist party. Scotland seemed to have a healthy resistance to Faragism and on one occasion, in 2013, he had to be <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/uk-scotland-22559526\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">locked in a pub in Edinburgh for his own protection<\/a>. The Brexit party also never really succeeded in Scotland (although it did make inroads into Wales), but under its new name, Reform UK, it is competing with Plaid Cymru for first place in Wales, and with Labour for second place in Scotland. It should easily win the English locals, and so it is the only party with a realistic chance of coming first or second in England, in Scotland and in Wales. That is why Farage is boasting about his being <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/live\/2026\/may\/06\/local-elections-labour-starmer-greens-polanski-red-cross-reform-tories-conservatives-lib-dems-latest-news-updates?page=with%3Ablock-69fb20628f08437d5ad9ebf0#block-69fb20628f08437d5ad9ebf0\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the \u201conly true national party\u201d.<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">3) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/uk\/wales\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Wales<\/a> going nationalist<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party, is widely expected to be the largest party in the Senedd after the elections and, unless Labour and Reform UK form some extraordinary version of their own Molotov\u2013Ribbentrop Pact, Plaid will be the only party with a realistic chance of forming a government. Rhun ap Iorwerth, the Plaid leader, would be the first non-Labour first minister of Wales since devolution. Assuming the SNP remain in power in Scotland (almost certain), and with Sinn F\u00e9in the largest party at Stormont, this would mean nationalists leading the three non-English nations in the UK.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">This does not mean Welsh independence is on the cards. Although formally committed to independence, Plaid has never given any serious thought to how independence might be achieved and a government that tried to implement it would find it even more complicated and less popular than the project has been in Scotland, where independence was rejected in a referendum in 2014. But, after that vote, the Scottish parliament got new powers, and the Scottish government started to use them to diverge from UK government tax policy. The Welsh government has fewer devolved powers than its Edinburgh counterpart, but with Plaid in power in Cardiff over time that may change.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">4) Labour support collapsing \u2013 especially in London<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">If Plaid win in Wales, it will be the first time Labour has lost a big election there for more than 100 years. It is also expected to lose big in London, where it is the dominant party in local government and where at the last election it won 59 of the 75 parliamentary seats. In fact, it is on course to do badly everywhere, recording its worst result since at least the 1970s. Here is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newstatesman.com\/politics\/uk-politics\/may-2026\/2026\/05\/map-of-local-election-predictions-where-will-labour-reform-the-greens-and-the-tories-win-and-lose\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the forecast from <\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.newstatesman.com\/politics\/uk-politics\/may-2026\/2026\/05\/map-of-local-election-predictions-where-will-labour-reform-the-greens-and-the-tories-win-and-lose\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Britain Elects<\/a>, who produce election forecasts for the New Statesman and who have a good record.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Results forecast from Britain Elects\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/1478.jpg\" width=\"465\" height=\"373.13261163734774\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"dcr-evn1e9\"\/>Results forecast from Britain Elects Photograph: New Statesman<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Tomorrow you may hear talk from Labour figures of the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/1968_London_local_elections\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">1968 London elections<\/a>. Taking place after devaluation the previous year, they were an utter disaster for Labour, which lost 17 of the 20 boroughs it controlled in the capital. They almost all went Tory. The upside for Labour people looking for a positive message out of this today is that the party recovered and, two years later, Harold Wilson called a general election that he thought he might win. But he lost. And Wilson did not have to contend with Reform UK, or the Greens, or five-party politics, or prolonged austerity, or social media, or any of the other factors that make Starmer\u2019s situation different.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">5) Local government getting more pluralist<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Local government in Britain used to be dominated by the two biggest legacy parties, the Conservatives and Labour. That picture should take a considerable jolt this weekend. The Liberal Democrats think they will be at least the second largest party in local government by the time of the next election, in terms of councillor numbers, and perhaps even the biggest. And Reform UK and the Greens will have a signficantly bigger presence. This chart, from <a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/@dylandifford\/p-194681400\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">an excellent preview of the elections<\/a> by Dylan Difford on Substack, shows how councillor numbers have changed over recent years.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Councillor numbers, by party, over time\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/3598.jpg\" width=\"465\" height=\"248.1378543635353\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"dcr-evn1e9\"\/>Councillor numbers, by party, over time Photograph: Dylan Difford<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">And Open Council Data has<a href=\"https:\/\/opencouncildata.co.uk\/\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"> full figures<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">6) Failure of first past the post<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">It is increasingly clear that the election system used in UK parliamentary elections, and for local elections in England and Wales, does not work in five-party politics. It functions well for two-party politics, but in multi-party politics it can easily lead to a party winning a far larger proportion of the seats than it merits based on the proportion of the votes it won. This famously happened at the last general election when Labour won 34% of the vote but 63% of the seats. Less well known is how this is increasingly happening at local authority level too. Rob Ford has also written <a href=\"https:\/\/swingometer.substack.com\/p\/six-big-questions-for-the-english\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">a terrific Substack guide to the elections<\/a>, and he includes this chart showing how in some cases last year Reform was winning three-quarters of the seats on a council with less than half the votes. Ford says:<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markThe crucial question for the Greens this year, as for Reform last year, is whether they can push their support in target areas above the \u2018tipping point\u2019 where first past the post goes from sandbag to springboard. For Reform last year, as the graph below illustrates, that tipping point came around 30% \u2013 in councils where Reform won above 30% they were generally over-represented in seats, often taking huge majorities.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Reform\u2019s vote share and seat share, by council, in last year\u2019s local elections\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/1568.jpg\" width=\"465\" height=\"330.95663265306126\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"dcr-evn1e9\"\/>Reform\u2019s vote share and seat share, by council, in last year\u2019s local elections Photograph: Rob Ford<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The Guardian has an editorial today saying this system must change.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">7) Labour\u2019s fightback challenge<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">We don\u2019t know yet how Labour will react to the results. Keir Starmer may face a leadership challenge. Even if he doesn\u2019t, the party is going to have to come up with a response that goes beyond \u2018Keep calm and carry on\u2019. Elections function as transmission mechanisms; they deliver blunt messages to government and \u2013 unless the polls are 100% wrong \u2013 the message tonight will be that something needs to change.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">So it will.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Elections 2026 live: counting under way after votes in England, Scotland and Wales&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/live\/2026\/may\/07\/elections-2026-local-scotland-wales-reform-green-labour-conservatives-live-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69fd10318f08beea73b76f3c#block-69fd10318f08beea73b76f3c\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Updated at\u00a019.29 EDT<\/p>\n<p>Key events<\/p>\n<p>Show key events only<\/p>\n<p>Please turn on JavaScript to use this feature<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The Labour group leader in Harlow, which is expected to be one of the first councils in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/uk-news\/england\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">England<\/a> to declare its local election result, has said he will \u201close some really good councillors, some hard-working councillors, this evening\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">James Griggs told the Press Association that \u201cthere\u2019ve been some mistakes\u201d since Labour won the general election \u2013 and the Harlow constituency in Essex \u2013 almost two years ago.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">He said:<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markIt\u2019s easy to focus on one mistake, or one or two mistakes, whatever they may be, and forget about the hundreds of really good bits of delivery from the manifesto from just two years ago.<\/p>\n<p>A lot of the stuff will take a while to come through \u2013 it is taking time, there\u2019s a lot of repairing to do after the damage of the 14 years in austerity.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Labour is defending five seats out of 11 up for election in the Harlow Council poll.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Elections 2026 live: counting under way after votes in England, Scotland and Wales&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/live\/2026\/may\/07\/elections-2026-local-scotland-wales-reform-green-labour-conservatives-live-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69fd20f38f08beea73b76fa4#block-69fd20f38f08beea73b76fa4\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">On the front page of tomorrow\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thetimes.com\/uk\/politics\/article\/keir-starmer-resignation-ed-miliband-labour-tzvlmjxzc\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Times<\/a> newspaper is a story claiming that Ed Miliband has \u201cprivately suggested to Sir Keir Starmer that he should consider setting out a timeline for his departure\u201d. A spokesperson for the secretary of state for energy and net zero said: \u201cWe do not accept this account.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Asked about it on the BBC, David Lammy warns Labour MPs against playing \u201cpass the parcel\u201d by removing Starmer as PM.<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markI think Ed Miliband has said that he doesn\u2019t recognise that.<\/p>\n<p>But look, let\u2019s be clear, Keir Starmer won a mandate for five years to deliver for the British people, and now some people are suggesting that we should go away and play pass the parcel.<\/p>\n<p>The Tories did that with leader after leader after leader.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">He added:<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markYes, there are questions that we have to answer, but there is no, there is no circumstances in which the answer to the questions that the British people are raising is to change the leader yet again.<\/p>\n<p>That is not what is coming up on the doorstep. What they want is delivery. What they want is hope. What they want is change, and that\u2019s what we\u2019ve got to deliver.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Elections 2026 live: counting under way after votes in England, Scotland and Wales&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/live\/2026\/may\/07\/elections-2026-local-scotland-wales-reform-green-labour-conservatives-live-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69fd1eb08f08561308c8e18b#block-69fd1eb08f08561308c8e18b\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Reform UK MP Richard Tice, who it\u2019s rumoured could make an appearance at the count in Newcastle-under-Lyme, has just posted this on X:<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markEarly positive vibes through the day being reinforced by early indicators as counting underway in some areas.<\/p>\n<p>Huge thanks to all our amazing candidates, supporters and activists.<\/p>\n<p>And massive thanks to the huge numbers who have voted Reform.<\/p>\n<p>We are making history.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Elections 2026 live: counting under way after votes in England, Scotland and Wales&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/live\/2026\/may\/07\/elections-2026-local-scotland-wales-reform-green-labour-conservatives-live-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69fd1c128f08beea73b76f8b#block-69fd1c128f08beea73b76f8b\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Neha Gohil<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">In the run-up to yesterday\u2019s elections, candidates and political parties described a climate of abuse, including death threats and intimidation while campaigning.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Labour\u2019s Dan Jarvis, the security minister, condemned \u201cthe rising tide of vile abuse, harassment and intimidation aimed towards elected officials and candidates\u201d online and in person. \u201cAnyone engaging in this sort of behaviour is directly attacking our democracy and we all must do more to stop it becoming normalised,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">A spokesperson for the Green party said some candidates had received death threats or been \u201cyelled at or chased down the street\u201d, and some had withdrawn from campaigning in certain areas due to harassment.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cAnecdotally, this has been the worst year in memory,\u201d the spokesperson said. They said the party had been \u201ca focus at this election more than ever before\u201d, with \u201csome wildly false claims being made about the party and its representatives, which some members of the public have accepted on face value\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Read more here:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Elections 2026 live: counting under way after votes in England, Scotland and Wales&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/live\/2026\/may\/07\/elections-2026-local-scotland-wales-reform-green-labour-conservatives-live-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69fd1b2c8f08561308c8e184#block-69fd1b2c8f08561308c8e184\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">We\u2019re getting statements from some of the political parties now as we wait for results.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">For the Conservatives, party chairman Kevin Hollinrake said:<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markWe have run an energetic and positive campaign, showcasing that we have a clear plan to get Britain working again and that we have the team to deliver it&#8230; We know that so soon after a historic general election defeat and contesting wards won during the Party\u2019s polling highs, that this will be a difficult set of elections for us. But we will continue to rebuild and to show the public that we have changed, to demonstrate that only this new Conservative party is a credible alternative.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey said:<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markPeople are deeply disappointed with a Labour government that has been too timid to fix the country, but they are also appalled by the rise of Reform and Nigel Farage\u2019s Trump-style politics. While those on the extremes of the right and the left want to burn everything down, Liberal Democrats want to fix what\u2019s broken. Every Liberal Democrat local champion elected today will fight tirelessly for the communities they serve.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Green party leader Zack Polanski said:<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markI\u2019ve travelled across England and Wales and I\u2019m hearing the same everywhere I go \u2013 confidence that we will win more councillors than ever before. The news from the doorstep is that we will be taking seats from not just Labour but the Tories and Lib Dems too, from all across the country. Voters are responding to the fact that Greens are the only party taking the cost-of-living crisis seriously, with real plans to cut bills, reduce rents and provide genuinely affordable homes, as well as tackling the climate and nature crisis.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said:<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markThroughout this election, we have heard a clear appetite for change. People want a government that will stand up for Wales and focus relentlessly on the key issues affecting their lives. People have told us they have been inspired by Rhun ap Iorwerth\u2019s leadership and driven by a desire for a positive alternative to Reform UK\u2019s chaos and division.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Elections 2026 live: counting under way after votes in England, Scotland and Wales&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/live\/2026\/may\/07\/elections-2026-local-scotland-wales-reform-green-labour-conservatives-live-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69fd16b68f08beea73b76f7a#block-69fd16b68f08beea73b76f7a\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a>Analysis: results set to have transformative impact on British politics<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Andrew_Sparrow,_R.png\" alt=\"Andrew Sparrow\" class=\"dcr-lysqes\"\/>Andrew Sparrow<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">In case you missed it on Thursday, my colleague Andrew Sparrow wrote this excellent guide to why these elections could be so transformative for British politics:<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">We don\u2019t have any results yet, but unless all the opinion polls, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.markpack.org.uk\/174682\/council-by-election-results-scorecard-2025-2026\/\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">all the council byelections that have taken place over the past 12 months<\/a>, and all the parliamentary byelections that have taken place since the general election, turn out to be completely unreliable guides to how people vote today, then we already have a rough idea of what the outcome will look like. It will be enough to transform the political landscape of Britain \u2013 in at least seven ways.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">1) The full arrival of five-party politics in England<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Two-party politics has been in decline in British politics for more than half a century. Its high point was in 1951, when 97% of people who voted in the UK general election opted for either the Conservative party or Labour. In recognition of the Lib Dems, people used to talk about England having a two-and-a-half party system. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/uk\/scotland\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Scotland<\/a> and Wales have had strong nationalist parties for years, and Reform UK easily won the English local elections last year. Under Zack Polanski, the Greens have now been soaring in the polls and this is the first English election where talking about \u201cmain\u201d parties and \u201cminor\u201d parties no longer makes sense. (How can it, when the \u201cminor\u201d parties with least parliamentary representation, Reform UK and the Greens, have been the two best-performing parties in some polls?) Those terms describe the parliamentary situation but not politics outside, where five parties are competitive across England and it is probably more useful to think in terms of legacy parties and disruptor parties.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">2) Reform UK\u2019s emergence as a GB-wide party<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">When Nigel Farage was leading Ukip, it looked like an English nationalist party. Scotland seemed to have a healthy resistance to Faragism and on one occasion, in 2013, he had to be <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/uk-scotland-22559526\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">locked in a pub in Edinburgh for his own protection<\/a>. The Brexit party also never really succeeded in Scotland (although it did make inroads into Wales), but under its new name, Reform UK, it is competing with Plaid Cymru for first place in Wales, and with Labour for second place in Scotland. It should easily win the English locals, and so it is the only party with a realistic chance of coming first or second in England, in Scotland and in Wales. That is why Farage is boasting about his being <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/live\/2026\/may\/06\/local-elections-labour-starmer-greens-polanski-red-cross-reform-tories-conservatives-lib-dems-latest-news-updates?page=with%3Ablock-69fb20628f08437d5ad9ebf0#block-69fb20628f08437d5ad9ebf0\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the \u201conly true national party\u201d.<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">3) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/uk\/wales\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Wales<\/a> going nationalist<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party, is widely expected to be the largest party in the Senedd after the elections and, unless Labour and Reform UK form some extraordinary version of their own Molotov\u2013Ribbentrop Pact, Plaid will be the only party with a realistic chance of forming a government. Rhun ap Iorwerth, the Plaid leader, would be the first non-Labour first minister of Wales since devolution. Assuming the SNP remain in power in Scotland (almost certain), and with Sinn F\u00e9in the largest party at Stormont, this would mean nationalists leading the three non-English nations in the UK.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">This does not mean Welsh independence is on the cards. Although formally committed to independence, Plaid has never given any serious thought to how independence might be achieved and a government that tried to implement it would find it even more complicated and less popular than the project has been in Scotland, where independence was rejected in a referendum in 2014. But, after that vote, the Scottish parliament got new powers, and the Scottish government started to use them to diverge from UK government tax policy. The Welsh government has fewer devolved powers than its Edinburgh counterpart, but with Plaid in power in Cardiff over time that may change.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">4) Labour support collapsing \u2013 especially in London<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">If Plaid win in Wales, it will be the first time Labour has lost a big election there for more than 100 years. It is also expected to lose big in London, where it is the dominant party in local government and where at the last election it won 59 of the 75 parliamentary seats. In fact, it is on course to do badly everywhere, recording its worst result since at least the 1970s. Here is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newstatesman.com\/politics\/uk-politics\/may-2026\/2026\/05\/map-of-local-election-predictions-where-will-labour-reform-the-greens-and-the-tories-win-and-lose\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the forecast from <\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.newstatesman.com\/politics\/uk-politics\/may-2026\/2026\/05\/map-of-local-election-predictions-where-will-labour-reform-the-greens-and-the-tories-win-and-lose\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Britain Elects<\/a>, who produce election forecasts for the New Statesman and who have a good record.<\/p>\n<p>Results forecast from Britain Elects Photograph: New Statesman<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Tomorrow you may hear talk from Labour figures of the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/1968_London_local_elections\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">1968 London elections<\/a>. Taking place after devaluation the previous year, they were an utter disaster for Labour, which lost 17 of the 20 boroughs it controlled in the capital. They almost all went Tory. The upside for Labour people looking for a positive message out of this today is that the party recovered and, two years later, Harold Wilson called a general election that he thought he might win. But he lost. And Wilson did not have to contend with Reform UK, or the Greens, or five-party politics, or prolonged austerity, or social media, or any of the other factors that make Starmer\u2019s situation different.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">5) Local government getting more pluralist<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Local government in Britain used to be dominated by the two biggest legacy parties, the Conservatives and Labour. That picture should take a considerable jolt this weekend. The Liberal Democrats think they will be at least the second largest party in local government by the time of the next election, in terms of councillor numbers, and perhaps even the biggest. And Reform UK and the Greens will have a signficantly bigger presence. This chart, from <a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/@dylandifford\/p-194681400\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">an excellent preview of the elections<\/a> by Dylan Difford on Substack, shows how councillor numbers have changed over recent years.<\/p>\n<p>Councillor numbers, by party, over time Photograph: Dylan Difford<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">And Open Council Data has<a href=\"https:\/\/opencouncildata.co.uk\/\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"> full figures<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">6) Failure of first past the post<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">It is increasingly clear that the election system used in UK parliamentary elections, and for local elections in England and Wales, does not work in five-party politics. It functions well for two-party politics, but in multi-party politics it can easily lead to a party winning a far larger proportion of the seats than it merits based on the proportion of the votes it won. This famously happened at the last general election when Labour won 34% of the vote but 63% of the seats. Less well known is how this is increasingly happening at local authority level too. Rob Ford has also written <a href=\"https:\/\/swingometer.substack.com\/p\/six-big-questions-for-the-english\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">a terrific Substack guide to the elections<\/a>, and he includes this chart showing how in some cases last year Reform was winning three-quarters of the seats on a council with less than half the votes. Ford says:<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markThe crucial question for the Greens this year, as for Reform last year, is whether they can push their support in target areas above the \u2018tipping point\u2019 where first past the post goes from sandbag to springboard. For Reform last year, as the graph below illustrates, that tipping point came around 30% \u2013 in councils where Reform won above 30% they were generally over-represented in seats, often taking huge majorities.<\/p>\n<p>Reform\u2019s vote share and seat share, by council, in last year\u2019s local elections Photograph: Rob Ford<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The Guardian has an editorial today saying this system must change.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">7) Labour\u2019s fightback challenge<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">We don\u2019t know yet how Labour will react to the results. Keir Starmer may face a leadership challenge. Even if he doesn\u2019t, the party is going to have to come up with a response that goes beyond \u2018Keep calm and carry on\u2019. Elections function as transmission mechanisms; they deliver blunt messages to government and \u2013 unless the polls are 100% wrong \u2013 the message tonight will be that something needs to change.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">So it will.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Elections 2026 live: counting under way after votes in England, Scotland and Wales&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/live\/2026\/may\/07\/elections-2026-local-scotland-wales-reform-green-labour-conservatives-live-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69fd10318f08beea73b76f3c#block-69fd10318f08beea73b76f3c\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Updated at\u00a019.29 EDT<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Here are some of the latest images from vote counts in England:<\/p>\n<p>Garon Park, Southend on Sea, Essex. Photograph: Avpics\/Alamy Live News\/Alamy Live News.Brierton Sports Centre in Hartlepool. Photograph: Ian Forsyth\/Getty ImagesBrierton Sports Centre in Hartlepool. Photograph: Ian Forsyth\/Getty Images<a href=\"mailto:?subject=Elections 2026 live: counting under way after votes in England, Scotland and Wales&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/live\/2026\/may\/07\/elections-2026-local-scotland-wales-reform-green-labour-conservatives-live-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69fd14808f08561308c8e153#block-69fd14808f08561308c8e153\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Updated at\u00a018.41 EDT<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Meanwhile, as polls closed, deputy PM David Lammy said the elections had been \u201ctough\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">He said:<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markI don\u2019t want to sugarcoat it, the message from the doorstep is this is a tough election cycle.<\/p>\n<p>This is a mid-term set of elections with people concerned about the cost of living and wanting to see the government go faster with quicker pace.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Lammy added that while Labour had run a \u201cpositive campaign\u201d, the party\u2019s \u201cmessage of delivery\u201d had been \u201cdrowned out by the politics of grievance\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Lucy Powell, deputy Labour leader, added:<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markThese elections are tough and took place in a difficult context. After over a decade of Britain being held back, working people up and down the country rightly want to see the whole of our United Kingdom firing on all cylinders in their interests. Labour has started to deliver on that promise and we are determined to make it happen everywhere for everyone.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Elections 2026 live: counting under way after votes in England, Scotland and Wales&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/live\/2026\/may\/07\/elections-2026-local-scotland-wales-reform-green-labour-conservatives-live-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69fd14008f08ff01710354ce#block-69fd14008f08ff01710354ce\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Updated at\u00a018.45 EDT<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Keir Starmer has thanked party activists after polls closed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">In a post on X, the prime minister said:<\/p>\n<p>double quotation markTo all the Labour members and volunteers who have supported local campaigns across the country: thank you.Together we will build a stronger and fairer Britain.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">These elections are widely seen as the biggest test for his premiership since the general election.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Elections 2026 live: counting under way after votes in England, Scotland and Wales&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/live\/2026\/may\/07\/elections-2026-local-scotland-wales-reform-green-labour-conservatives-live-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69fd11f78f08ff01710354b6#block-69fd11f78f08ff01710354b6\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a>What to look out for in Scotland<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Libby_Brooks.png\" alt=\"Libby Brooks\" class=\"dcr-lysqes\"\/>Libby Brooks<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Libby Brooks is the Guardian\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/uk\/scotland\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Scotland<\/a> correspondent<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Although the incumbent Scottish National party is cruising towards a gravity-defying fifth term in office, the fine detail of the results and the subsequent makeup of the Holyrood chamber remains exceptionally unpredictable.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Polls this week showed Reform UK, which has gained considerable momentum in Scotland over the past 18 months, was neck and neck for second place with Scottish Labour, whose rating have suffered from growing public dissatisfaction with the UK Labour government, despite its leader, Anas Sarwar, taking the career-defining decision to call for Starmer to stand aside in February.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Many constituency seats are in the balance, and the SNP is by no means guaranteed a majority. It could then turn to the Scottish Greens \u2013 who are anticipating a strong showing thanks in part to a Polanski bounce, although the Green Party of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/uk-news\/england\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">England<\/a> and Wales is a separate entity \u2013 for support to create a pro-independence majority at Holyrood.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The SNP leader, John Swinney, has pledged to hold a vote seeking the powers to hold a second independence referendum on the first day of a new parliament \u2013 despite the fact that the UK government has consistently refused previous demands and he can offer no alternative route.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Elections 2026 live: counting under way after votes in England, Scotland and Wales&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/live\/2026\/may\/07\/elections-2026-local-scotland-wales-reform-green-labour-conservatives-live-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69fc694e8f089ae78b6e4add#block-69fc694e8f089ae78b6e4add\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">While the first full council result in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/uk-news\/england\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">England<\/a> isn\u2019t expected until 2am, there may be some smaller results from midnight.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">I\u2019ll bring you updates here, but to see the full results for England, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/uk\/scotland\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Scotland<\/a> and Wales you can head to our results tracker:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Elections 2026 live: counting under way after votes in England, Scotland and Wales&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/live\/2026\/may\/07\/elections-2026-local-scotland-wales-reform-green-labour-conservatives-live-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69fd0fa78f08ff01710354a4#block-69fd0fa78f08ff01710354a4\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a>What to look out for in Wales<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Bethan-McKernan,_L.png\" alt=\"Bethan McKernan\" class=\"dcr-lysqes\"\/>Bethan McKernan<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Bethan McKernan is the Guardian\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/uk\/wales\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Wales<\/a> correspondent<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">This week the Welsh parliament will grow from 60 to 96 members under a new, more proportional electoral system. Labour is expected to lose control of the Senedd for the first time since devolution in 1999, with Plaid Cymru\u2019s Rhun ap Iorwerth expected to become the new first minister, putting Welsh independence firmly on the agenda.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Coalition arithmetic makes it highly unlikely Reform will be able to form a government, even if it wins the most seats. If the numbers allow, Plaid Cymru will form a minority government without entering formal coalition agreements with Labour or the Green party.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Labour\u2019s predicted losses are so catastrophic that some polls put the party in fourth place, after the Greens. Several polls suggest Eluned Morgan, the Labour first minister, will lose her seat.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The Senedd\u2019s new list system has razor-sharp margins, making predictions very difficult. As little as 0.06% of the vote could decide the last (sixth) seat in each constituency, according to the pollsters More in Common.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Elections 2026 live: counting under way after votes in England, Scotland and Wales&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/live\/2026\/may\/07\/elections-2026-local-scotland-wales-reform-green-labour-conservatives-live-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69fc69868f0875fd2951c79c#block-69fc69868f0875fd2951c79c\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a>Which results are we expecting first?<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Aletha_Adu,_L.png\" alt=\"Aletha Adu\" class=\"dcr-lysqes\"\/>Aletha Adu<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Aletha Adu is a Guardian political correspondent<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The early hours of Friday morning will produce only a handful of declarations but they could shape the mood of the entire elections.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Hartlepool is one of the first major tests of whether Reform UK can convert polling momentum into real council gains. The declaration guide itself flags the possibility of Reform making significant advances there as one of the key storylines of the night.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">If Reform performs strongly, Labour strategists will worry less about isolated local setbacks and more about the emergence of a durable anti-establishment challenger capable of eating into Labour\u2019s old coalition in towns the party once considered safe.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Oxford could offer an early sign of how fragmented progressive and anti-Tory voters have become, with Labour, the Greens and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/2026\/apr\/30\/could-lib-dems-become-the-biggest-party-in-english-local-government\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Liberal Democrats<\/a> all competing for similar voters. The declaration guide refers to \u201ca mess of different liberal winners in Oxford\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Dudley matters because it sits in politically volatile Midlands territory where Labour faces pressure from Reform amid frustration over immigration, living standards and distrust of Westminster politics.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">You can see a full election results timeline here:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Elections 2026 live: counting under way after votes in England, Scotland and Wales&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/live\/2026\/may\/07\/elections-2026-local-scotland-wales-reform-green-labour-conservatives-live-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69fc6a548f0826d5279e7b9d#block-69fc6a548f0826d5279e7b9d\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a>Polls closed in England, Scotland and Wales<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Hello and welcome to the Guardian\u2019s live coverage of election results in England, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/uk\/scotland\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Scotland<\/a> and Wales.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Thursday\u2019s votes covered the Scottish and Welsh parliaments and 136 local councils in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/uk-news\/england\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">England<\/a>, where 5,014 seats were contested, including every one on all of London\u2019s 32 borough councils, more than a dozen borough councils, six unitary councils, six county councils and three district councils. A further 73 councils held elections for half or a third of the seats available.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">There were also six mayoral contests \u2013 in Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets and Watford.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">So, there is a lot to come\u2026<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">We\u2019re expecting the first results in England between midnight and 2am, but counting in Scotland and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/uk\/wales\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Wales<\/a> does not begin until around 9am \u2013 so those results are some way off.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">As ever, we\u2019ll bring you the latest news, colour and reaction throughout the night.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Feel free to get in touch \u2013 hamish.mackay@theguardian.com \u2013 if you spot any errors. My colleague Andrew Sparrow will take over at 6am, and comments will open from 8am.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Elections 2026 live: counting under way after votes in England, Scotland and Wales&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/live\/2026\/may\/07\/elections-2026-local-scotland-wales-reform-green-labour-conservatives-live-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&amp;page=with%3Ablock-69fc5e778f0826d5279e7b01#block-69fc5e778f0826d5279e7b01\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-1mulgdf\">Share<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Updated at\u00a018.26 EDT<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Analysis: results set to have transformative impact on British politicsAndrew Sparrow In case you missed it on Thursday,&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":571956,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[59,57,58,50,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-571955","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-united-kingdom","tag-gb","tag-great-britain","tag-greatbritain","tag-news","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/571955","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=571955"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/571955\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/571956"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=571955"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=571955"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=571955"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}