Topline<\/p>\n
With the Strait of Hormuz closed for nearly 10 weeks, much of the world is running out of jet fuel and summer vacation plans could be disrupted, energy experts told Forbes.<\/p>\n
A Malaysia Airlines jet takes off over fuel storage tanks at Sydney Airport in Australia. <\/p>\n
gettyKey Facts<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s not going to be a short-term issue, because it can\u2019t be easily solved,\u201d Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, the energy data and analytics platform, told Forbes, having likened the jet fuel shortage to a \u201cslow-motion car crash<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re going to be in crisis mode,\u201d John Gradek, who teaches aviation risk management at McGill University, told Forbes, noting \u201cthe industry has never seen this before, where the actual supply of the product needed to support aviation, that pipeline, is drying up.\u201d<\/p>\n Europe\u2019s jet fuel inventories are expected to dip below the International Energy Agency\u2019s critical 23-day shortage threshold sometime in June, according to a recent Goldman Sachs research note to investors.<\/p>\n In mid-April, the head of the International Energy Agency warned that Europe had \u201cmaybe six weeks of jet fuel left<\/a>\u201d and poorer countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America would feel the impact even sooner.<\/p>\n In 2026, the world\u2019s airlines will experience \u201ca significant slowing of traffic and capacity\u201d and \u201cthe impact will clearly be both deeper and more prolonged the longer the conflict continues and the longer jet fuel prices remain at their current levels,\u201d Cirium warned<\/a> in April.<\/p>\n Crucial Quote<\/p>\n \u201cIf you\u2019re not a very resilient traveler, planning to go to one of these overseas destinations, you may want to rethink it, especially if the [Strait of Hormuz] blockade<\/a> continues through Memorial Day,\u201d Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy\u2019s head of petroleum analysis, told Forbes, noting he plans to visit Europe this summer. \u201cI\u2019m going to be nervous myself traveling to Italy in August,\u201d he said. \u201cIf the Strait remains closed for another couple weeks, it\u2019s really not going to be good.\u201d <\/p>\n The Jet Fuel Shortage Is A Slow Car Crash<\/p>\n The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since late February, when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. While the Middle East supplies 20% of Europe\u2019s aviation fuel, it\u2019s not as if the continent will suddenly run out of jet fuel one day, Gradek told Forbes. \u201cIt\u2019s going to be a slow process of individual countries starting to run out, which has already started.\u201d Airlines worldwide cut roughly 13,000 flights and 2 million seats from their May 2026 schedules, with the biggest European reductions coming from Germany\u2019s national airline Lufthansa and Turkish Airlines, according to Cirium. Flight cuts are ramping up this summer. Looking ahead to June through September, roughly 9.3 million seats have already been removed across 11 major global markets, according to Cirium data shared with Forbes. And there is likely more schedule trimming to come. \u201cEven if the Strait opened tomorrow, we don\u2019t believe things will return to normalcy in the Mideast Gulf until at least August, and even that may be optimistic,\u201d Smith told Forbes. \u201cThis is not about elasticity of price,\u201d Gradek told Forbes. \u201cThis is about getting people home. This is about airlines delivering what they sold on your contracted ticket. Some airlines are going to have a hard time to fulfill that contracted obligation because air travel is going to be very difficult if we don\u2019t have fuel.\u201d <\/p>\n Europe\u2019s Jet Fuel Shortage <\/p>\n \u201cIf you\u2019re an American vacationing in Europe this summer, I can\u2019t say that you would be risk free,\u201d De Haan told Forbes, adding he was not worried about airlines cancelling profitable long-haul transatlantic flights. \u201cThose would be the last flights to be adjusted. First, I\u2019d worry about intra-Europe. I\u2019d worry about small airport to small airport, medium to medium. Anything that touches a small airport could be canceled.\u201d The United Kingdom, which \u201cholds no strategic reserves\u201d of jet fuel, is particularly at risk of jet fuel rationing as supplies fall to \u201ccritically low levels,\u201d Goldman Sachs analysts wrote to investors. \u201cIn Europe, the biggest problem is in the United Kingdom, since all its jet fuel is imported,\u201d De Haan told Forbes. Last week, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer encouraged staycations<\/a> in the U.K. and said citizens may have to \u201cchange where they go on holiday.\u201d <\/p>\n The Jet Fuel Crisis Is Impacting The World<\/p>\n \u201cAsia is getting a little challenging, but it\u2019s spotty,\u201d De Haan told Forbes. \u201cSingapore should be okay, but Thailand could be more problematic. Bottom line is, a lot of the fuel is going to flow to the countries that can afford it the most\u2014but a country like Thailand, maybe not so much.\u201d What about other destinations around the world? \u201cThere\u2019s going to be a decent amount of risk in going to Australia, to Africa, to South America,\u201d De Haan said. \u201cThese are all areas that rely on imports in a significant way, so they\u2019re all at elevated risk.\u201d<\/p>\n What Can Travelers Expect In The U.s.?<\/p>\n \u201cAirlines are right-sizing\u201d for summer 2026, Mike Arnot, airline industry consultant at Cirium, told Forbes, noting he expects a very busy summer for transatlantic and U.S. domestic travel\u2014but with higher airfares. Fuel costs are significantly higher than when airlines originally posted their summer schedules, he said. For June through September, United is reducing capacity by 8%, while Delta and American are trimming seats by 5% and 4%, respectively. And there are other pressures. \u201cThe U.S. dollar has also declined compared to the euro compared to a few summers ago and Spirit has completely exited the market<\/a>,\u201d Arnot said. The beleaguered ultra-low-cost carrier\u2019s demise cut the supply of seats from the market, \u201cwhich is going to result in higher fares, which is what U.S. airlines need to happen to cover their costs.\u201d Once the Strait of Hormuz opens, it will take months for jet fuel prices to decline. \u201cYou\u2019re looking at elevated ticket prices through the summer and fall because it takes a while for the prices to go down,\u201d Chris Sununu, president of the airline lobby group Airlines for America, told The Wall Street Journal<\/a>.<\/p>\n Tangent<\/p>\n Surging jet fuel prices wiped billions from U.S. airlines\u2019 bottom lines<\/a> in March and drove the final stake into Spirit Airlines<\/a>.<\/p>\n Further Reading<\/p>\n