{"id":579786,"date":"2026-05-12T12:18:08","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T12:18:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/579786\/"},"modified":"2026-05-12T12:18:08","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T12:18:08","slug":"frontrunners-defeats-hint-at-twists-and-turns-to-come-in-prem-rugby-finale-prem-rugby","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/579786\/","title":{"rendered":"Frontrunners\u2019 defeats hint at twists and turns to come in Prem Rugby finale | Prem Rugby"},"content":{"rendered":"

There are small but significant moments in every league campaign. Until the weekend it was widely assumed that Northampton<\/a> and Bath, the two frontrunners in the English Prem, were all but nailed on for home semi-finals and, by extension, would almost certainly meet in the grand final at Allianz Stadium in Twickenham on 20 June.<\/p>\n

That could still happen but, suddenly, others are entering the chat. Not only did Saints and Bath lose at the weekend but both were well beaten, 41-17 by Leicester and 35-12 by Exeter respectively. Bath, including their Champions Cup semi-final in Bordeaux<\/a>, have lost three games on the trot. Northampton were not so much batted aside by the Tigers as unceremoniously flattened.<\/p>\n

A deeper dive into the historical stats also unearths some interesting nuggets. The last time Bath<\/a> lost two consecutive league games under Johann van Graan was in October 2023, when a clutch of players were at the World Cup in France. Northampton, meanwhile, have never conceded as many points away against their East Midlands rivals\u2019 ground in the league as they did on Saturday. The burning question is whether all this is just a blip, or an indicator of something deeper?<\/p>\n

In that regard Northampton fans will hope their director of rugby, Phil Dowson, was correct after the game. \u201cWe\u2019ve got to be careful of over-egging it because it\u2019s only the second game we\u2019ve lost this season,\u201d he said. \u201cWhile we\u2019ve got to make sure we don\u2019t take it lightly, we also have to ensure we don\u2019t throw the baby out with the bath water.\u201d Give or take the mixed metaphors it is a fair point: Saints will cement a playoff place if they beat Bristol Bears at Franklin\u2019s Gardens on Friday and have eminently winnable fixtures against Gloucester and Harlequins in the remaining two rounds.<\/p>\n

Bath, on the face of it, also remain in a decent position. Bottom-placed Newcastle will head to the Rec this weekend and, should Bristol lose in the East Midlands, victory over the stumbling Red Bulls should deliver a top-four finish. \u201cNever too high, never too low,\u201d as Van Graan keeps reminding all and sundry on a weekly basis.<\/p>\n

That said, those weekend results have slightly tweaked the psychology around the run-in. Northampton may have the league\u2019s slickest attack but injuries have been nibbling away at their squad depth and the defence has been increasingly porous. Saints have shipped an average of more than 35 points in their past three league games.<\/p>\n

Leicester, furthermore, will not be the slightest bit apprehensive if they end up facing their old rivals again, having just put six tries past a Saints side containing a fair sprinkling of England players. As with Michael Cheika last season, Geoff Parling has done a fine job from virtually a standing start and the Tigers seem to be gathering momentum at the right time.<\/p>\n

It might even be enough to steal a home semi-final draw, depending on how the last three rounds pan out. If they can beat Sale away and Exeter<\/a> at home, their final fixture is against \u2013 drum roll \u2013 Bath at the Rec. By that stage Bath would ideally be looking to rest key men at the end of a long season, but that luxury might not necessarily be available.<\/p>\n

Which would be interesting even if there wasn\u2019t already a faint suspicion that Bath are running through end-of-year treacle. In Exeter on Sunday, Van Graan referenced the long run of games his squad have slogged through as they battled away on two fronts. The defending champions will benefit from a week\u2019s rest next week but, even so, the defeat by Exeter will be studied with interest by their rivals.<\/p>\n

Exeter\u2019s Len Ikitau on the charge for the Chiefs against Bath. Photograph: Bob Bradford\/CameraSport\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

Because, \u00e0 la Sherlock Holmes and the Adventure of Silver Blaze, it was what didn\u2019t happen in the second half that was perhaps the most significant aspect. With a strong wind at their backs, their famed Bomb Squad rumbling on for the last half hour and trailing by only six points entering the final quarter, everything was set up for the visitors to pull the trigger. Instead the Chiefs, playing into the elements, won the last 20 minutes by a margin of 17-0<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The simplest \u2013 and most plausible \u2013 explanation is that Bath were still mentally and physically jiggered after their semi-final loss in France. That certainly looked the case. But Exeter had also just lost a Challenge Cup semi-final \u2013 albeit a couple of days earlier \u2013 and did not have their star man, Manny Feyi-Waboso, on the field either.<\/p>\n

There was also a marked contrast in the two sides\u2019 attacking games. There is nothing wrong with Bath\u2019s scrum or maul but they were a shadow of themselves with the ball. Henry Arundell and Joe Cokanasiga barely received a pass out wide and even Finn Russell, such an outstanding fly-half, could inject little in the way of fizz. Russell was also starting his 24th competitive match of the season; he gets paid big bucks but he is increasingly having to earn them.<\/p>\n

It still feels likeliest, when you crunch the numbers, that Saints, Bath, Leicester and Exeter will occupy the playoff berths unless either Bears or Saracens, finishing as strong as anyone, can hurl themselves at the tape. But what happens then? A weary, slightly depleted Northampton against a determined Exeter with Leicester hosting Bath \u2013 rather than vice versa \u2013 in the other semi-final? There may yet be a twist in this season\u2019s Prem tale.<\/p>\n

This is an extract from our weekly rugby union email, the Breakdown. To subscribe just visit this page<\/a> and follow the instructions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"There are small but significant moments in every league campaign. Until the weekend it was widely assumed that…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":579787,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[5903,101,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-579786","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-rugby","tag-rugby","tag-sports","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/579786","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=579786"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/579786\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/579787"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=579786"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=579786"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=579786"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}