El Ni\u00f1o is part of a larger atmospheric and oceanic system called the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which can affect weather patterns around the world. When waters in that particular region of the Pacific Ocean \u2014 called Ni\u00f1o 3.4 \u2014 are warmer than average, we get an El Ni\u00f1o. Colder temperatures bring La Ni\u00f1a.\u00a0<\/p>\n
There\u2019s also a neutral phase.<\/p>\n
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its monthly ENSO update<\/a> on Thursday, saying that we are in an El Ni\u00f1o watch, with an 82 per cent chance of it developing between May and July and a 96 per cent chance of it continuing from December to February. They also noted there is still uncertainty about its peak strength<\/a>.<\/p>\n Under normal conditions, trade winds blow west along the equator in the Pacific Ocean, where it moves warm water from South America towards Asia. Water rises from the depths of the ocean to replace that warm water.<\/p>\n During an El Ni\u00f1o, that process reverses as the trade winds weaken. And those conditions seem to be forming now.<\/p>\n While there could be a strong or even ‘super’ El Ni\u00f1o developing this year<\/a>, scientists say not to expect impacts in Canada this summer. But that doesn\u2019t mean we get off scott-free.<\/p>\n And what happens in the Pacific Ocean doesn\u2019t stay in the Pacific Ocean. A strong El Ni\u00f1o will have global impacts.<\/p>\n The good news for Canada is that the effects won\u2019t be felt this summer.\u00a0<\/p>\n Winter is another story<\/p>\n The forecast is for the El Ni\u00f1o to develop around June or July and peak around November or December.\u00a0<\/p>\n And that\u2019s typically when Canadians can expect to feel the impact of an El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n “The biggest effects in Canada occur during the winter. And they are profound. I mean, they’re really profound,” said Kent Moore, a professor of atmospheric physics at the University of Toronto. “Eastern Canada [and] Central Canada \u2026 typically has warm winters.”<\/p>\n But it’s not just Eastern Canada. The West tends to be warm as well.<\/p>\n Canada experienced its warmest winter on record in 2023-2024 during the last El Ni\u00f1o, which was a strong one, with a temperature anomaly of 1.5 C in the El Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region of the Pacific Ocean. And the forecast for this one is expected to be closer to 2 C or higher.\u00a0<\/p>\n The last super El Ni\u00f1o was in 2015-2016, when the temperature anomaly was 2.4 C.\u00a0<\/p>\n We could feel some impacts in 2027, but it\u2019s not really a direct effect from El Ni\u00f1o.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u2018Climate change is the reason to freak out\u2019<\/p>\n As we continue to burn fossil fuels into the atmosphere, the planet continues to warm. The past 11 years have been the warmest on record<\/a>. That includes 2020, 2021 and 2022 \u2014 all years where there was a La Ni\u00f1a, which typically produces a cooling effect.<\/p>\n So putting an El Ni\u00f1o on top of the warming that\u2019s already happening means we will likely see a record-breaking year in 2027, if not even 2026.<\/p>\n “There’s just so much more heat in the tropical Pacific that it just warms the whole Earth up,” Moore said.<\/p>\n On Monday, there was a virtual media briefing by a group of climate scientists on what to expect in 2026. <\/p>\n WATCH | Japan just invented a word for ‘cruel heat’: Japan just invented a new word for \u2018cruel heat\u2019<\/p>\n Temperatures in Japan have reached a breaking point, and the language is shifting to keep up. The Japan Meteorological Agency has introduced a new term for days exceeding 40 C: kokushobi, or “cruelly hot day.” In a culture with a deep relationship between seasons and language, CBC News’s Johanna Wagstaffe explores how the arrival of this word is a sobering signal of climate change.<\/p>\n Friederike Otto, a professor in climate science at the centre for environmental policy at Imperial College London, stressed that we can expect “unprecedented weather extremes that would not have been observed in similar historical El Ni\u00f1o events that are quote-unquote cooler climates,” and that records will be broken because of the continued use of fossil fuels, not El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n “While El Ni\u00f1o could lead to very extreme conditions later this year, it’s not the reason to freak out. El Ni\u00f1o is a natural phenomenon. It comes and goes. Climate change, [by] contrast, gets worse and worse and worse as long as we do not stop burning fossil fuels, and it’s already a much stronger influence on many extremes than most natural modes of variability,” Otto said.<\/p>\n “Climate change is the reason to freak out, and ideally, in a constructive way, by doing something about it. And we do know what to do about it. We have the knowledge and technology to go very, very far away from using fossil fuels.”<\/p>\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/1778825051_57_default.jpg\")
This illustration shows the Ni\u00f1o regions in the Pacific Ocean. (NOAA)<\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/1778825051_950_default.jpg\")
This illustration shows the impacts of a potential winter El Nino. In Canada, winters can be warmer than usual as a result of the weather event, as was the case in 2015-2016. (CBC News)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/1778825052_501_default.jpg\")
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A drone view of a forest fire in the Biobio region, where multiple wildfires have prompted emergency evacuations, in Florida, Chile, on Jan. 21. (Adriano Machado\/Reuters)<\/p>\n