Reform is likely to focus heavily on immigration and Brexit over the next few weeks as it looks to exploit an escalating Labour row over whether the UK should seek to rejoin the EU<\/a>.<\/p>\n The outcome of the byelection is likely to determine not only the immediate political future of Keir Starmer, whom Burnham has pledged to challenge if elected, but also the viability of the Labour<\/a> party as a whole.<\/p>\n The prime minister spent the weekend at Chequers considering his political future, and allies say that despite his public defiance he is now willing to stand aside should Burnham win a clear mandate in Makerfield and no other challenger emerges.<\/p>\n If he loses the byelection, it will leave Starmer in office but badly wounded by weeks of damaging attacks from his own MPs and without an obvious successor. One ally said: \u201cIt\u2019s impossible to underscore how perilous this is. I would give Andy a 45% chance of winning, maybe a bit more than that.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s compelling to say tell progressive voters to vote for Andy to get Starmer out, but the flip side is you\u2019re saying to Reform voters that if they vote Reform they can finish the Labour party off for good.\u201d<\/p>\n Makerfield town centre. Photograph: Joel Goodman\/The Guardian<\/p>\n Burnham spent the weekend in Greater Manchester, campaigning in Makerfield and in talks with senior Labour figures involved in the selection process. Applications to run in the seat close at midday on Monday, with a formal candidate recommendation from Labour\u2019s ruling executive committee on Thursday. If Burnham is the only applicant, the process might happen more quickly.<\/p>\n A vote in the seat is likely to be held on or around 18 June, giving Labour and Reform a four-week sprint before what could prove to be one of the most consequential byelections in British political history.<\/p>\n Pollsters say<\/a> that despite the local election result, Burnham\u2019s personal popularity across Greater Manchester gives him an even shot of winning the race.<\/p>\n Luke Tryl, the director of the research group More in Common, said: \u201cWe have two amazing forces playing against each other \u2013 the demographics of the seat, which all point to a Reform win, versus Burnham\u2019s personal factor.<\/p>\n \u201cIt makes the result really consequential. If Labour can\u2019t win they may as well pack up and go home. If they do win, all bets are off in terms of the prime minister\u2019s future.\u201d<\/p>\n Labour figures say they believe Burnham\u2019s job was made harder over the weekend by a public row about whether the UK should rejoin the EU after comments from another likely leadership rival, Wes Streeting.<\/p>\n Streeting said on Saturday that he believed Britain\u2019s long-term future lay in rejoining the union \u2013 something that was quickly dismissed as \u201codd\u201d by the culture secretary, Lisa Nandy.<\/p>\n Reform is hoping to focus heavily on Labour\u2019s position on European membership during the campaign, putting Burnham in a difficult position of deciding whether to side more closely with the wider Labour membership, which is overwhelmingly pro-EU, or voters in Makerfield, 65% of whom voted to leave in 2016.<\/p>\n Labour\u2019s position will be further tested on Wednesday when the Liberal Democrats lay an amendment to the king\u2019s speech calling for the government to begin immediate talks over entering a customs union.<\/p>\n Starmer has ruled out such an agreement, but colleagues including Streeting argue this has hampered the government\u2019s attempts to boost growth.<\/p>\n Immigration is also likely to feature heavily in the byelection campaign, putting Burnham in an even more difficult position. Many Labour members, whose votes he will need in a leadership contest, are pushing for the government to water down its changes<\/a> to the asylum system, while many voters in seats such as Makerfield are calling for an even harder line.<\/p>\n![\"'I'll](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/1779045373_12_5500.jpg\")
‘I’ll be standing’: Wes Streeting sets out hopes for Labour leadership race \u2013 video<\/p>\n