Deutsche Bank\u2019s Sanjay Raja expects the United Kingdom (UK) labour market to remain weak after a surprise drop in the jobless rate driven by self-employment. Raja forecasts the unemployment rate to hold at 4.9%, with elevated redundancies, softer employment intentions following the Iran conflict, and only a small decline in vacancies, pointing to a sluggish overall jobs picture.<\/p>\n
Jobs data seen staying under pressure<\/p>\n
“After a shock drop in the jobless rate \u2014 owing to a historic rise in self-employment \u2014 we expect things to continue as they were before: on a weaker footing.”<\/p>\n
“Indeed, the Iran energy shock has likely resulted in stalled hiring plans, with firms continuing to adjust pay growth in response.”<\/p>\n
“On the quantities side of the labour market, we expect the jobless rate to stay put at 4.9%.”<\/p>\n
“Our models continue to point to elevated redundancies \u2013 as measured by the LFS (with gross redundancies tracking between 110k and 155k).”<\/p>\n