Russia\u2019s inflation slowdown is not yet changing how consumers perceive rising prices, according to a Central Bank-commissioned survey, underscoring a challenge for policymakers despite official data showing inflation cooling more quickly than expected.<\/p>\n
Russians\u2019 estimates of price growth over the past year rose to 15% in May from 14.6% a month earlier, while expectations for inflation over the next 12 months edged up to 13% from 12.9%, according to a survey conducted<\/a> by the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM) for the Central Bank.<\/p>\n The findings suggest households remain unconvinced by signs of easing price pressures, even as official data point to a sharp slowdown in inflation and a stronger ruble. Inflation expectations are closely watched by Russia\u2019s policymakers because they can influence consumer behavior and complicate efforts to bring inflation under control.<\/p>\n Rosstat data showed<\/a> consumer prices rose just 0.14% in April, the lowest increase for that month since records began, while inflation was flat<\/a> in some individual weeks. During the first 12 days of May \u2014 when the survey was conducted \u2014 prices rose<\/a> only 0.06%, while the ruble strengthened.<\/p>\n \u201cAbsolutely cursed inflation expectations. Maybe someone jinxed them,\u201d Sberbank chief economist Alexander Isakov joked<\/a> on social media.<\/p>\n The rise in perceived inflation was driven mainly by lower-income Russians, who tend to feel price increases more acutely. Among respondents without savings, estimates of price growth over the past year rose to 16.4% from 15.8%, the highest level since September 2025. Among wealthier respondents with savings, perceived inflation fell to 13% from 13.4%.<\/p>\n Official data painted a much more subdued picture. Rosstat said annual inflation slowed to 5.6% in April.<\/p>\n Inflation expectations showed the opposite trend. Among respondents without savings, expectations dipped slightly to 14.1% from 14.3%, while among those with savings they rose to 11.8% from 11.4%.<\/p>\n The latest figures brought both inflation perceptions and expectations back to levels seen about a year ago. Economist Yegor Susin described<\/a> current perceived inflation readings as broadly in line with average levels over the past year.<\/p>\n Other surveys point to a similar disconnect between official data and consumer sentiment. State pollster VTsIOM, which tracks<\/a> perceptions over a shorter one- to two-month horizon, found its inflation perception and expectation indices have changed little over the past six months.<\/p>\n More than half of respondents in April described inflation as \u201cvery high,\u201d while 30% called it \u201cmoderate.\u201d Looking ahead one to two months, 51% expected a \u201cslight\u201d rise in prices and 35% anticipated a \u201cserious\u201d increase.<\/p>\n \u201cThe population still does not feel inflation slowing,\u201d analysts at Promsvyazbank wrote<\/a>.<\/p>\n Analysts said inflation perceptions may be shaped not only by price dynamics but also by broader concerns over household finances and economic prospects.<\/p>\n Public sentiment surveys have deteriorated sharply this year. Half of Russians identified low incomes as the country\u2019s main problem in a March survey<\/a> by the independent Levada Center.<\/p>\n A February study<\/a> by the Russian Academy of Sciences\u2019 Institute of Psychology found rising financial anxiety and worsening psychological well-being across all socio-economic groups.<\/p>\n Joint surveys by the institute and VTsIOM also found growing concern about rising prices, with 84% of respondents reporting heightened fears related to inflation.<\/p>\n Gazprombank analysts said<\/a> a slight improvement in inflation expectations among households without savings may reflect slower price growth in key \u201cmarker\u201d goods that consumers closely track. Tomato prices fell 22% over the month, egg prices dropped 3.3% and smartphone prices slipped 0.3%. Growth in bread, gasoline and clothing prices also slowed.<\/p>\n But despite inflation cooling faster than the Central Bank had forecast, analysts at Promsvyazbank noted<\/a> that prices for nearly half the goods tracked weekly were still rising \u201cquite dynamically.\u201d<\/p>\n