{"id":596498,"date":"2026-05-21T17:14:14","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T17:14:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/596498\/"},"modified":"2026-05-21T17:14:14","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T17:14:14","slug":"britains-taiwan-policy-avoiding-another-yalta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/596498\/","title":{"rendered":"Britain\u2019s Taiwan policy: Avoiding another Yalta"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>Image generated using Artificial Intelligence<\/p>\n

Ahead of the visit of Donald Trump, President of the United States (US) visit to the People\u2019s Republic of China (PRC), Beijing signalled<\/a> its intent to push him to \u2018oppose\u2019 Taiwan independence explicitly. Meanwhile, Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State, maintained<\/a> that Washington would stick with its longstanding position<\/a> \u2013 which has traditionally been: \u2018we do not support Taiwan independence\u2019 (although the Trump administration removed<\/a> this particular wording from its website).<\/p>\n

Given Trump\u2019s highly personalistic and unpredictable approach to diplomacy and dealmaking, there was no guarantee that he would not go off script. As ever, the President chose his own words when speaking<\/a> to Fox News: \u2018I\u2019m not looking to have somebody go independent\u2026I want them [Taiwan] to cool down\u2019 (and adding \u2018I want China to cool down\u2019, alongside other loose language<\/a> on arm sales to Taipei).<\/p>\n

\u2026had Trump opted to utter \u2018we oppose Taiwan independence\u2019, Beijing\u2019s efforts to shift the blame for cross-strait instability onto Taipei would have been bolstered, and unwarranted legitimacy would have been lent to the CCP\u2019s expansionist territorial claims.<\/p>\n

The distinction is a fine one, and a change of wording would not have altered anything on the ground: Taiwan would have remained independent. But had Trump opted to utter \u2018we oppose Taiwan independence\u2019, Beijing\u2019s efforts to shift the blame for cross-strait instability onto Taipei would have been bolstered, and unwarranted legitimacy would have been lent to the Chinese Communist Party\u2019s (CCP) expansionist territorial claims.<\/p>\n

Indeed, many countries in Africa and Asia have put on record<\/a> their opposition to Taiwanese independence (and given a green light for a Chinese war to annex the island). Yet, the US to one side, Taiwan\u2019s other partners \u2013 including the United Kingdom (UK) \u2013 are not publicly pressed to alter their wording and \u2018oppose\u2019 Taiwanese independence. His Majesty\u2019s (HM) Government standard line<\/a> is:<\/p>\n

We consider the Taiwan issue one to be settled peacefully by the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait through constructive dialogue, without the threat or use of force or coercion. We do not support any unilateral attempts to change the status quo.<\/p>\n

Without reading too deeply between the lines, it can be inferred that HM Government does \u2018not support\u2019 Taiwan independence \u2013 that is an act, such as revising the Republic of China\u2019s constitution, that would make Taiwan de jure independent \u2013 because such action would have to be unilateral in practice. Beijing would never acquiesce to it.<\/p>\n

Yet, at the same time, HM Government does not appear, in principle, to be opposed. Rather, with the emphasis on a final settlement being arrived at \u2018peacefully\u2019 the point does not seem to be the outcome, whether independence or unification, but on the process.<\/p>\n

In 2022, Ben Wallace, then Defence Secretary, muddied the waters when he told<\/a> the House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee that \u2018it is in China\u2019s plan to reunify Taiwan to mainland China…[and] Britain wants a peaceful process towards that.\u2019<\/p>\n

Wallace quickly rowed back<\/a> these words, in a letter to the committee\u2019s Chair, and repeated HM Government\u2019s familiar formulation that \u2018the contested status of Taiwan must be resolved peacefully\u2019. He wrote \u2018My position is most emphatically not, as you believe my remarks suggested, that \u201cTaiwan must expect to be absorbed into the PRC and, inter alia, has no independent legitimacy\u201d.\u2019 Yet, a few paragraphs further down, Wallace also spoke of the UK\u2019s longstanding and unchanging policy on Taiwan being \u2018reflected in the Cairo Declaration\u2019\u2026<\/p>\n

This declaration \u2013 that, in 1943, pledged<\/a> to restore Taiwan to China from Japanese rule \u2013 has, however, been noticeably absent from modern HM Government statements. In neither its 2000 submission<\/a> nor its 2024 response<\/a> to the House of Commons\u2019 Foreign Affairs Committee did the Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office (FCDO) mention this wartime commitment in exposition on Britain\u2019s Taiwan policy.<\/p>\n

If the stipulation is that neither force nor coercion should be used, then is it not the position of HM Government that any fundamental change to the cross-strait status quo must be one that has the consent of the Taiwanese people?<\/p>\n

Long may this remain so. The UK should not be in the business of carving up territory with little to no regard for the people living there. The signing over of Poland at Yalta, another Second World War deal of this kind, is rightly regarded as a highly embarrassing and regrettable episode in British diplomatic history. Moreover, any invocation of the Cairo Declaration today stands at odds with HM Government\u2019s belief that cross-strait differences \u2018be settled peacefully\u2026without the threat or use of force or coercion.\u2019<\/p>\n

If the stipulation is that neither force nor coercion should be used, then is it not the position of HM Government that any fundamental change to the cross-strait status quo must be one that has the consent of the Taiwanese people? Indeed, they may (as polls consistently suggest<\/a>) never opt for unification, but instead stick with maintaining Taiwan\u2019s de facto independence indefinitely.<\/p>\n

Going forward, the UK \u2013 definitively ditching the Cairo Declaration (lest Beijing seize on any regurgitated reference to this pledge) \u2013 should make this point clear: that it is ultimately up to the people of Taiwan, living as they do in a democracy, to decide their future.<\/p>\n

While often unsaid, the will of the Taiwanese populace has long been a concern of British governments. On 11th May 1951, when pushed on how a settlement across the Taiwan Strait might be brought about, Herbert Morrison, then Foreign Secretary, told<\/a> Parliament: \u2018I think it is clearly desirable that the wishes of the inhabitants of Formosa [Taiwan] should be taken into account\u2019.<\/p>\n

Articulating such a view now would help to counter Beijing\u2019s intensifying efforts to dictate the global narrative in which Taiwan is presented as an \u2018internal matter\u2019, the rights of the people there erased, and unification established as a historical inevitability. Such lines, if unchallenged, will only breed fatalism in Taiwan, aiding the CCP\u2019s efforts to break the psychological will of the Taiwanese people and secure victory without a fight. Meanwhile, if this narrative takes hold, the costs of a conflict for Beijing will have been lowered \u2013 with an act of annexation unlikely to invoke the same global disdain as Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Fully articulating this point, about the wishes of the Taiwanese, is also a good reminder to the world that Taiwan is not a mere \u2018problem\u2019 or \u2018issue\u2019 (or, indeed, a bargaining chip) but a country of 24 million people.<\/p>\n

At a time when the leader of the free world cannot be relied upon to articulate the rights and wrongs of an international dispute, it falls upon Britain and like-minded nations to step up and do so. The UK can continue not to support any unilateral alterations to the status quo. However, going forward, HM Government should assert that cross-strait differences must be settled peacefully, without the threat or use of force or coercion \u2013 and with the explicit democratic consent of the people of Taiwan.<\/p>\n

Gray Sergeant is Research Fellow in Indo-Pacific Geopolitics at the Council on Geostrategy.<\/p>\n

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What do you think about this Memorandum? Why not leave a comment below?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Image generated using Artificial Intelligence Ahead of the visit of Donald Trump, President of the United States (US)…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":596499,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[59,57,58,50,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-596498","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-united-kingdom","tag-gb","tag-great-britain","tag-greatbritain","tag-news","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/596498","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=596498"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/596498\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/596499"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=596498"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=596498"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=596498"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}