Please note: trading is very thin today.\u00a0Markets are closed in the US (Memorial Day), the UK (Spring Bank Holiday) and parts of Europe (Germany, France, Switzerland \u2013 Pentecost). Euronext and Xetra will be open, but with thin order books, any headline from Tehran or Washington could trigger sharp movements.<\/p>\n
\ud83c\udf0d What drives the market?<\/p>\n
The main topic is\u00a0US\u2013Iran talks and the Strait of Hormuz.\u00a0Over the weekend, Trump first announced that the deal was \u201clargely negotiated\u201d, only to reverse his stance on Sunday \u2013 the naval blockade remains in place until the agreement is signed and ratified. Despite this, the market is buoyed by optimism: two LNG tankers have left the Strait of Hormuz, and a supertanker carrying Iraqi oil for China has left the Gulf after being held up for almost three months.<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udcc8 Market open \u2013 risk-on<\/p>\n
European futures are opening in risk-on mode:\u00a0DE40 +1.65%\u00a0 (25,252 points),\u00a0EU50 +1.60%\u00a0(6,094 points). The Nikkei 225 hit a historic record today \u2013 breaking through 64,000 and 65,000 points in succession, closing at\u00a0 65,263 points (+3.04%). Taiwan\u2019s Taiex also reached an all-time high above 43,000 points (+2.91%). S&P 500 futures are up +0.7%, Nasdaq futures +1.2%.<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udee2\ufe0f Oil \u2013 the biggest loser<\/p>\n
OIL (Brent) is down -5.35% to $94.52\/bbl, while WTI is down -5.75% to $90.65\/bbl \u2013 the lowest levels in two weeks. This is a direct reaction to progress in the Iran talks.\u00a0 Gold is up +1.21% to $4,562\/oz \u2013 driven by a weaker dollar, not the classic safe-haven effect. Silver is stronger, up +2.91%.<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udcb1 Currencies<\/p>\n
The dollar is under pressure: the USDIDX is down 0.30% to 98.93. EUR\/USD is up to 1.1643, GBP\/USD to 1.3486.\u00a0\u00a0The Chinese yuan at the PBOC fixing stands at 6.8318 \u2013 its strongest level since February 2023.<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udccb Today\u2019s macroeconomic data\u00a0<\/p>\n
none<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udd11 What should you keep an eye on?<\/p>\n
Any tweet or post from Trump, or any statement from Rubio regarding Iran, could trigger sharp movements in oil, the dollar and index futures. With low liquidity, the effect could be amplified. A full trading session with normal liquidity will not resume until\u00a0Tuesday\u00a0 \u2013 by which time the market will also be facing the earnings season: on Wednesday\u00a0Salesforce and PDD Holdings, on Thursday\u00a0Royal Bank of Canada, Dell Technologies and Autodesk<\/p>\n
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