\n Pacific Ocean temperatures are rising fast, raising fears that a powerful El Nino pattern could bring record global heat and chaotic weather, and fresh damage to coral reefs already weakened by climate change. <\/p>\n
Issued on: 25\/05\/2026 – 07:56<\/p>\n
3 min Reading time\n<\/p>\n
El Nino<\/a> is a natural climate pattern that develops in the Pacific every two to seven years and can disrupt weather around the world, bringing drought to some regions and heavy rain to others.<\/p>\n Forecasters at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) say there is about an 80 percent chance of El Nino developing by July.<\/p>\n Sea temperatures in key parts of the equatorial Pacific<\/a> are climbing quickly, while a large pool of unusually warm water is building beneath the surface.<\/p>\n Several weather services predict Pacific temperatures could rise by 2.5C or more above average later this year. Only three El Nino events since 1877-78 have crossed the 2C mark, in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s definitely something coming. We\u2019re very confident about that, and it looks like it will be a big event,\u201d Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the UK Met Office, told French news agency AFP.<\/p>\n UN climate vote strengthens calls for rich nations to pay for damage<\/a><\/p>\n Unpredictable winds <\/p>\n The NOAA says there is a one in three chance this episode will reach 2C or above, putting it in \u201csuper El Nino\u201d territory. But scientists say its final strength will depend on winds that remain difficult to predict.<\/p>\n The strongest El Ninos usually form when trade winds weaken across the Pacific, allowing more warm water to spread across the ocean surface. But those winds can also strengthen unexpectedly.<\/p>\n \u201cWhen that happens, it pauses the growth of El Nino or even reverses it,\u201d said Michelle L\u2019Heureux, NOAA\u2019s El Nino-Southern Oscillation lead.<\/p>\n \u201cUltimately the strength of this event will be likely influenced by these details, like the low-level winds, which we cannot predict many months in advance.\u201d<\/p>\n As high seas treaty takes shape, Galapagos proves that protection pays off<\/a><\/p>\n New record possible <\/p>\n El Nino tends to peak around December, but ocean heat is released slowly and can push global temperatures higher in the years that follow.<\/p>\n Many record-temperature years, including 1998, 2010, 2016, 2023 and 2024, came during or after major El Nino events.<\/p>\n There \u201ccould easily be a new record level of global warmth in 2027\u201d if an extreme El Nino takes shape this year, Scaife said.<\/p>\n Even a weaker El Nino would be occurring in a world already warmed by climate change.<\/p>\n \u201cThe impacts of this El Nino \u2013 on things like rainfall and of course temperature \u2013 are riding on top of climate change, and could well be larger than anything we\u2019ve seen in the past,\u201d Scaife added.<\/p>\n Scientists also stress that stronger El Ninos raise the odds of more severe impact, but do not guarantee them.<\/p>\n Built to live for centuries, Greenland sharks are charting uncertain waters<\/a><\/p>\n Reefs under pressure <\/p>\n Researchers are also warning of a heavy toll on coral reefs, which have already suffered repeated bleaching as oceans warm.<\/p>\n \u201cEvery global coral bleaching event has been during an El Nino year,\u201d explained Clint Oakley, a coral scientist at Victoria University of Wellington.<\/p>\n A strong El Nino could prove \u201cserious and devastating for many reefs around the world\u201d, he said, describing the prospect with \u201cdread, although not surprise\u201d.<\/p>\n