{"id":604653,"date":"2026-05-26T11:30:23","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T11:30:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/604653\/"},"modified":"2026-05-26T11:30:23","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T11:30:23","slug":"bread-and-pasta-prices-to-stay-high-as-uk-households-feel-pinch-from-iran-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/604653\/","title":{"rendered":"Bread and pasta prices to stay high as UK households feel pinch from Iran war"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Your support helps us to tell the story<\/p>\n<p class=\"sc-1uza6dc-0 iOIawn\">From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it&#8217;s investigating the financials of Elon Musk&#8217;s pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, &#8216;The A Word&#8217;, which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.<\/p>\n<p class=\"sc-1uza6dc-0 iOIawn\">At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.<\/p>\n<p class=\"sc-1uza6dc-0 iOIawn\">The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.<\/p>\n<p>Your support makes all the difference.Read more<\/p>\n<p>British households face persistently high prices for essential food items such as bread and pasta, with a new report attributing the long-term trend to ongoing global events like <a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/world\/americas\/us-politics\/trump-iran-war-peace-talks-deadline-b2982528.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the Middle East crisis<\/a> and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/world\/americas\/el-nino-climate-heat-record-storms-b2971813.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">El Nino weather pattern<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) suggests that price hikes following &#8220;major shocks&#8221; tend to recede only gradually and partially. <\/p>\n<p>This &#8220;rocket and feathers&#8221; effect, where food prices &#8220;shoot up like rockets but drift down like feathers&#8221;, means consumers are left with elevated grocery bills long after the initial disruption has subsided.<\/p>\n<p>The think tank\u2019s findings, based on over three decades of UK data, indicate that shelf prices recover a mere 1 per cent of their original increase after six months, rising to just 7 per cent after two years. <\/p>\n<p>When adjusted for wages, only about a third (35 per cent) of the initial affordability impact is unwound within a two-year period, explaining why grocery costs remain significantly above pre-pandemic levels despite some contributing factors easing.<\/p>\n<p>ECIU food and farming analyst Chris Jaccarini said: \u201cShoppers feeling that prices are on a never-ending escalator upwards is borne out by the data.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWar and extreme weather are increasingly pushing up the cost of the weekly shop with the latest conflict in the Middle East driving up the price of oil, gas and fertiliser used to grow, ship and process food.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn England, we\u2019ve had three of the worst harvests on record in the past five years and next year is shaping up to be the hottest globally.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.independent.co.uk\/static-assets\/images\/mobile-stores\/Trading_212.svg\" width=\"153\" height=\"40\" alt=\"Trading 212 logo\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"sc-118zqaw-6 ITEVB\">Get a free fractional share worth up to \u00a3100.<br \/>Capital at risk.<\/p>\n<p class=\"sc-118zqaw-7 bSAfrS\">Terms and conditions apply.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"sc-1aus1tj-1 kCODJP sc-118zqaw-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.trading212.com\/join\/TI?af_xp=custom&amp;source_caller=ui&amp;pid=partners&amp;utm_source=network_the_independent&amp;shortlink=l9wss7fd&amp;utm_medium=text_advertising&amp;af_adset=text_advertising&amp;af_ad=text_advertising&amp;utm_campaign=text_advertising&amp;af_channel=network_the_independent&amp;c=the_independent\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Go to website<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"sc-118zqaw-8 bvmDWa\">ADVERTISEMENT<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.independent.co.uk\/static-assets\/images\/mobile-stores\/Trading_212.svg\" width=\"153\" height=\"40\" alt=\"Trading 212 logo\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"sc-118zqaw-6 ITEVB\">Get a free fractional share worth up to \u00a3100.<br \/>Capital at risk.<\/p>\n<p class=\"sc-118zqaw-7 bSAfrS\">Terms and conditions apply.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"sc-1aus1tj-1 kCODJP sc-118zqaw-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.trading212.com\/join\/TI?af_xp=custom&amp;source_caller=ui&amp;pid=partners&amp;utm_source=network_the_independent&amp;shortlink=l9wss7fd&amp;utm_medium=text_advertising&amp;af_adset=text_advertising&amp;af_ad=text_advertising&amp;utm_campaign=text_advertising&amp;af_channel=network_the_independent&amp;c=the_independent\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Go to website<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"sc-118zqaw-8 bvmDWa\">ADVERTISEMENT<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe only way to stop the growing risk of floods and droughts is to reach net zero and bring the climate back into balance.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat means cutting our reliance on oil and gas, which would also help shield food prices from the volatile global markets that have helped drive <a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/uk\/politics\/labour-cost-of-living-plan-energy-rents-food-prices-b2981238.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the cost-of-living crisis<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs the data shows, once prices are up, they\u2019re up \u2013 prevention is the only cure.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/1237638729.jpg\"  loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"On average, shelf prices fall just 1 per cent of the original rise after six months, 5 per cent after a year and 7 per cent after two years, the think tank found\" class=\"sc-1mc30lb-0 ggpMaE inline-gallery-btn\"\/>On average, shelf prices fall just 1 per cent of the original rise after six months, 5 per cent after a year and 7 per cent after two years, the think tank found (AFP\/Getty)<\/p>\n<p>Henry Dimbleby, former lead of the government\u2019s National Food Strategy, said: \u201cFood inflation has been brutal \u2013 and it will keep biting unless we tackle the underlying causes.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat\u2019s because our food system is tightly tied to energy, fertiliser and transport costs \u2013 and we\u2019ve built too little resilience into supply chains and production.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs climate change and energy volatility worsen, shocks are likely to become more frequent and more severe.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cUnless we cut our reliance on fossil fuels, diversify supply chains and build real resilience into food production, higher food prices will become a lasting feature of daily life, with the heaviest burden falling on those least able to bear it.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>A previous report by the think tank suggests that UK food prices are on track to be 50 per cent higher by November compared to levels at the start of the cost-of-living crisis in mid-2021.<\/p>\n<p>The \u201cgrim milestone\u201d would mean that the price growth seen in the nearly 20 years prior to the crisis would be achieved in just over five years, almost quadrupling the pace of food inflation.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/3a6128dcdeb597e256678eefe617af4fY29udGVudHNlYXJjaGFwaSwxNzc5MzU0OTQ4-2.75917011.jpg\"  loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Food price rises leading on from \" major=\"\" shocks=\"\" tend=\"\" to=\"\" come=\"\" down=\"\" only=\"\" slowly=\"\" and=\"\" partially=\"\" afterwards=\"\" leaving=\"\" households=\"\" facing=\"\" a=\"\" higher=\"\" grocery=\"\" bill=\"\" long=\"\" after=\"\" the=\"\" original=\"\" crisis=\"\" has=\"\" eased=\"\" according=\"\" analysis=\"\" from=\"\" energy=\"\" climate=\"\" intelligence=\"\" unit=\"\" class=\"sc-1mc30lb-0 ggpMaE inline-gallery-btn\"\/>Food price rises leading on from &#8220;major shocks&#8221; tend to come down only slowly and partially afterwards, leaving households facing a higher grocery bill long after the original crisis has eased, according to analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) (PA Archive)<\/p>\n<p>The ECIU said warmer El Nino temperatures tended to particularly affect cocoa, food oils, rice and sugar, with wider risks for other products linked to the tropics such as bananas, tea, coffee, chocolate and soy-fed meat.<\/p>\n<p>Households have already seen food prices rise more than 40 per cent since mid-2021, the report said.<\/p>\n<p>For families with children in the lowest fifth of earners, a healthy diet now requires spending around 70 per cent of disposable income after housing costs.<\/p>\n<p>Anna Taylor, executive director of the Food Foundation, said: \u201cWhat\u2019s striking here is the lasting impact of these shocks: once food prices go up, they rarely come properly back down and that means for millions of people in Britain food becomes harder and harder to afford, and food insecurity continues to remain unacceptably high even after the headlines have moved on.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf we are serious about making food more affordable, we have to focus on reducing the impact of the next shock, not just responding after the damage is done.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe UK needs to stop lurching from crisis to crisis and put a long-term plan for food resilience on a statutory footing.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cA Good Food Bill would help protect families, farmers and food businesses alike by building a more resilient food system and helping to ensure that everyone can afford and access healthy food, even as climate impacts and geopolitical disruption become more frequent.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Your support helps us to tell the story From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":604654,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[84,1294,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-604653","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/604653","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=604653"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/604653\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/604654"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=604653"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=604653"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=604653"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}